Late Line Movement NFL Week 12 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

We’re just a week away from stuffing (pun intended) our faces, napping, and watching some Thanksgiving Day NFL games. For now, we’ve got a nice Week 12 slate featuring some divisional rivalry games and some inter-divisional games that are excellent data points as we head toward the postseason. One housekeeping note to mention: now that college basketball has started, I will be posting my daily projections right here at VSiN.com starting sometime in December, so be on the lookout for those, as we crushed it last year, particularly on the women’s side. Without further ado, let’s get to these late-week additions to the Week 12 NFL best bet card.

 

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5; 47.5)

I don’t think there’s a team in the league who has underperformed relative to my preseason ratings than San Francisco. Obviously, they have dealt with a ton of injuries, but they continue to be priced for what they should be rather than what they are, which is the 11th-rated overall team in TSI. They’re taking on a Packers team, and I think a lot of people might be fading based on only beating the lowly Bears by 1 at home last week. I think this is a great spot for them. TSI indicates this line should be more like 2.5, where multiple sharp offshore books have this line after opening at the 1.5 you can currently get at DraftKings and others. Looking at these teams’ recent performances (last five games), I’d actually make the Packers a 4.5-point favorite here, so I’m happy to lay the 1.5 with Jordan Love and Co.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -1.5 (Play to -2)

New England Patriots (+7.5; 46) at Miami Dolphins

Speaking of teams who have been plagued by injuries, Miami has not quite had the season it had hoped for – or was expected to have – due to the mounting concussions for QB Tua Tagovailoa. However, Tua has been back in the lineup for a few games now and I still think the market overvalues this Dolphins team. Not to mention, the Patriots shut out the Rams in the fourth quarter last week despite the loss but showed some encouraging signs on both slides that I think they can build on. Look, do I think the Patriots are a very good team? Not at all. But, like I always say, we’re betting numbers and not teams, and the Patriots are now at least in the 20th-ranked range on both sides of the ball after spending early parts of the season in the bottom five. TSI projects this line at 6.5, and sharp books moved from 8 to 7.5, so I’m taking above a touchdown with New England.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +7.5 (Play to +7)

For more NFL Week 12 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 12 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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