Late Line Movement NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

In case you missed it, check out my early bets for Week 15, which I wrote about on Tuesday, as I gave out a couple of plays I like for this NFL Week 15 slate. Today, I’ve got a play for Thursday Night Football and will evaluate the rest of the board now that lines have begun to settle. 

 

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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3; 49)  

The 49ers offense had been concerning prior to last week’s outburst against the Bears (at my expense). The Rams, on the other hand, have moved their way into the top 10 of TSI offensive ratings since getting Puka Nacua back in the lineup. This line opened offshore at 48 and has been as high as 49.5 this week, which is a good indication TSI is on the right track here, projecting right at the number of 49, with some formulas as high as 51. Late in the year like this, it’s generally more prudent to focus on recent games to see how teams are trending to close the year, and these teams are trending in a direction that I think lends itself to the Over here. LA has averaged 25 and allowed 26 points per game in its last 5, while San Francisco found its offensive rhythm last week and has allowed 25 points per game over its last 5 as well. 

NFL Week 15 Bet: Over 49 or better 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns (+4; 44)

I feel like fading the Chiefs is a weekly tradition at this point. I’m not sure if they’re the lowest power-rated one-loss team in history, but they’ve got to be up there. They continue to eke out wins with a combination of luck and late-game execution, and good for them. However, from a rating and point spread standpoint, the record-watchers continue to inflate their numbers. Cleveland is not a great team, but they’re definitely a team I like to back as underdogs when the numbers indicate to do so, and over the last five games, I’d make this game a pick ‘em (!). The Chiefs are rated ninth in TSI, mostly due to their 17th-ranked offense. I think Cleveland should be able to muck this game up enough to keep it to a field goal, which is seemingly where the Chiefs prefer to play games.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Browns +4 or better

For more NFL Week 15 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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