Late Line Movement NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

Let’s take a look at my late line movement NFL Week 4 picks:

 

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Arizona Cardinals (-3.5; 50.5) vs Washington Commanders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

I know everyone is excited about Jayden Daniels and the Commanders beating Cincinnati in a Monday Night Football shootout, and rightfully so. They looked electric against a freefalling Bengals team; however, Arizona is a team on the rise in TSI, and I love the spot and the number here for Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and company to bring Washington back to Earth a little bit. TSI projects Arizona -7.5 in this game, much closer to the 5.5 this line was on 9/23 before everyone jumped on the Washington bandwagon. Furthermore, Arizona is 6th in opponent-adjusted net points per play, while Washington is still just 23rd. I think this is a huge overreaction to Monday night. Give me the more talented team at home against the trendy underdog.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals -3.5 (Play to -4)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1; 40) vs Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS) 

As of Monday, DraftKings had this total at 38.5, and we’ve seen a 1.5-point move toward the over. I think that’s a mistake. The Colts and Steelers have just the 18th and 26th ranked offenses, respectively, in the TSI, while the Steelers have the #1 defense, and their games have totaled just 67 points (~22 points per game). TSI projects this total at just 32 points, so I think there’s a ton of value here in taking the under on what I call “Iowa of the NFL” in Pittsburgh. Both teams are top 10 in opponent-adjusted defensive points per play, and are just 12th (Colts) and 26th (Steelers) in opponent-adjusted offensive points per play. 

Week 4 NFL Pick: Under 40 (Play to 38)

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