Late Line Movement NFL Week 7 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

It’s Friday, which means it’s time to take a look at the NFL market and see where it has moved too much (or too little) throughout the week. We’re getting to that point in the season where injuries are starting to pile up across the board, making the data very muddy, especially for teams with cluster injuries or with QBs in and out of the lineup. It’s not as simple as just saying, “Adjust x-points,” because then a team’s data gets even muddier and has a butterfly effect on the rest of the ratings and projections. Sifting through the injury noise, let’s look at where the market compares to where it was earlier this week and how the T Shoe Index can help us cash some late Week 7 NFL best bets. 

 

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5; 39) 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

This game has a couple of moving parts that I think will impact the result, particularly the total. First, the Jets traded for Davante Adams earlier this week, and he is expected to debut for the Jets in this game, which has caused the market to shade a little more towards the Jets and the Over, after the O/U was 36 on October 14th. And second, Russell Wilson was getting first-team reps for Pittsburgh in practice, so expect to see him at least some of the time under center. TSI projects this total at just 35.5, and honestly, Wilson playing over Fields (both from a talent standpoint at this juncture and the fact he hasn’t played at all this season after being atrocious for a couple of years now) makes me think it’s going to bring the scoring down in this game. I also think, while Adams is a great receiver and a splashy get, his presence in this game will not be as impactful as he will almost certainly be down the road as he gets acclimated to the new offense and QB Aaron Rodgers (who has also not been very good this year so far). Lots of names and hype in this game, but I think it’s a low-scoring affair that stays under the number.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Under 39, play to 38

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3; 51) 

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Another total that has gotten inflated since last weekend, this O/U was 48 on Sunday evening and has since been bet up a field goal to 51. 48 and 51 are key totals numbers, so moving from one to another is substantial, especially when TSI is only projecting 48 points here, with some of my formulas as low as 45.5 – with none above 50. I understand why the average bettor would think the Over was the play here, and perhaps at 48, you could make a case for it, but this number is now too high. Totals above 49 are going Under 64% of the time so far this year, and only one total above 50 has gone Over. It takes some serious offensive efficiency, and usually some luck — non-offensive touchdown, for example – to get above 50 points against an NFL defense . Neither team is top 10 in points per play, so these aren’t well-oiled offensive machines, and you can’t predict the luck aspect, so I’ll roll with the overwhelming trends and a strong TSI projection.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Under 51 or better

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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