Late Line Movement NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

I’ve often talked about the art and the science of handicapping, and Thursday night’s game was the perfect example of how the two can sometimes clash and why sometimes the best bets are the ones we don’t make. TSI projected a 22-22 tie in the game, and while that would indicate value on Houston, the combination of Stefon Diggs being lost for the season and the fact that the line continued to move towards the Jets despite receiving very little support from the market (from my perspective, at least) kept me off of the game because I felt like there were conflicting “art” and “science” angles. That was a wise decision, although I wish I’d have live bet the Jets when they went down 7-0 early on. Nonetheless, we want to factor in all available information, which is why these line move + bet articles can provide value. Let’s see where this week’s analysis takes us after the market has had several days to settle for NFL Week 9 picks.

 

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8; 46.5) 

After opening at 44 earlier this week, we’ve seen this total get bet up to 46.5, which moved it through the TSI projection of 45.5. Realistically, I think this line should be traded back and forth between 44.5 and 45.5, so 46.5 is just a bridge too far when talking about a Broncos defense that’s currently in the TSI top 5, and a Ravens defense that can put the clamps on at any given time. Denver is #2 in points per play allowed and just 20th in offensive points per play, so I think defensively, they do enough not to allow Lamar Jackson and the #2 TSI offense to completely go bonkers, while likely unable to do much offensively themselves. I think something like a 27-17 game feels about right here, which keeps this under the number.

NFL Week 9 Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45.5)

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) 

After opening as 6.5-point underdogs, the Colts have been bet down a point to the current 5.5-point line, where I think there’s still value to back them after they benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out” for a play last week in the fourth quarter because he was tired. TSI projects Minnesota -4, and honestly, I didn’t adjust the number for the QB change, but it would likely favor the Colts if I did because Richardson has not been very good this year. Over recent games, these teams have graded out pretty similarly for me, despite the Vikings being 5-2 while the Colts are just at 4-4. Indianapolis has been undervalued by the market as well, which we capitalized on last week also against Houston. Let’s back some Flacco magic here!

NFL Week 9 Pick: Colts +5.5 (Play to +4.5)

For more NFL Week 9 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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