The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
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How To Watch Lions vs. 49ers
When: Monday, December 30th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Lions vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 29th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -205, 49ers +170
Spread: Lions -3.5 (-112), 49ers +3.5 (-108)
Total: Over 50.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110)
Check out our Lions vs. 49ers matchup page!
Lions vs. 49ers Analysis
This is an extremely lopsided game when it comes to public action. More than 90% of the bets and handle have come in on Detroit, according to our DraftKings betting splits page. Our Circa betting splits page doesn’t look all that different. However, I have a hard time believing a shorthanded Lions team will win this game comfortably, even against a 49ers team that has nothing to play for. In fact, I like San Francisco’s chances of winning this one outright, so I’ll end up having the spread and moneyline here.
Outside of an injury to David Montgomery, the Lions are in good shape when it comes to the offense. So, that’s a little scary when considering this Detroit team is third in the league in EPA per play (0.154). However, Montgomery’s ability to hammer away between the tackles is big for this offense. And San Francisco isn’t terrible defensively, ranking 17th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.014). The big weakness for the team is in the running game, as the 49ers are 28th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.020). Well, without Montgomery, will Detroit be able to get the running game going against this weak rushing defense? Jahmyr Gibbs is incredible, but he’s a different type of player. And the Lions do need the running game working in order to do everything they want to do in the passing game. Jared Goff does a lot of his damage because of how much opponents have to respect the run.
Not only do I think the 49ers defense has a chance of doing just well enough in this game, but I like the San Francisco offense to torch the Detroit defense. The Lions might have been able to hold up defensively against the Bears, but they had allowed an average of 39.5 points per game against the Packers and Bills in the two weeks prior. Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job all season, but it’s not fair to ask him to slow down a decent offense with his current group of players. Brock Purdy and Co. should be able to deliver a big performance, especially through the air.
Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are also 7-4 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. They’re also 28-22 ATS as underdogs in that time.
It’s also hard not to like the Over in this game. The Over is 8-6-1 in Detroit games this season, and it has hit in the last three games the Lions have played. Having an elite offense and a depleted defense will do that. The Over has also hit in two of the last three 49ers games. On top of that, it looks like we’re going to see some great weather in Santa Clara.
Lions vs. 49ers Player Props
George Kittle Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
This is just a lean for me, so I’m not actually playing it. However, I do like George Kittle to finish with at least 67 yards. Kittle has done this in five of his last eight games, and he has had at least 106 yards in two of his last three. The 49ers are just going to the tight end more than anyone else, and he’s making big plays because of his ability to run after the catch. That said, I’d ignore the fact that the Lions are giving up fewer receiving yards against tight ends than any team in the league. He’s going to get a healthy number of targets, and this isn’t the same Detroit defense that we saw early in the year.
Lions vs. 49ers Pick
As previously mentioned, I’m jumping on San Francisco to cover the spread. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. It’s not fun rooting for a team that doesn’t need to win, but San Francisco has enough talent out there for that not to matter. The 49ers don’t have to care all that much in order to put up points against this version of the Lions, and I’m not expecting Detroit to look unstoppable in a road game against a decent defense.
Bet: 49ers +3.5 (-105) & 49ers ML (+175)
