On Thursday, September 17, the Lions and Bills clash in a fun Thursday Night Football matchup. Both teams are coming off wild Week 1 performances, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this turns into an interesting game. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Lions vs. Bills
When: Thursday, September 17 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Channel: Prime Video
Lions vs. Bills Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, September 15. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -218, Lions +180
Spread: Bills -4.5 (-112), Lions +4.5 (-108)
Total: Over 53.5 (-120), Under 53.5 (+100)
Lions vs. Bills Analysis
The last time these teams met was in 2024, when Buffalo earned a 48-42 victory in Detroit. That game had a total of 55.5. This game has a total of 53.5, and points will be expected. However, points are generally a little tougher to come by in Thursday Night Football games, and it’ll be interesting to see if these two can buck that trend. Last week wasn’t the greatest week for the Lions offense, as they cooled down significantly in the second half of their win over the Saints. Still, this is an offense that is loaded with talent, and they were ninth in the NFL in EPA/play (0.071) last year. Meanwhile, the Bills, who were third in the NFL in EPA/play (0.145) last year, put up 36 points against an elite Texans defense. This one screams Over, but I’m staying away.
I’m also avoiding sides. I was ready to jump on Buffalo moneyline, but I waited a little too long. This was originally available around -160, but it has gone up to -200 or higher. This spread has also moved from Bills -3 to Bills -4.5, making it tough to like Buffalo to cover. It would have been way easier to stomach laying a field goal. Despite that, I’m not willing to play Detroit either. The Bills are a better team, plus they’re playing their first game in a new stadium. That should have them fired up.
Perhaps the best way to play this game is by using Buffalo moneyline in a parlay. You can also tease the total down and go Over. But I’m going to be sticking to player props here.
As far as why I’m leaning Bills, I’ll just say that I don’t trust the Lions secondary. Not only are they banged up, but they lack high-end talent. Well, nobody punishes busted coverages quite like Allen. We just saw this group get absolutely torched by Tyler Shough in the second half, and Allen is way better as a passer. Allen also happens to have an elite ability to use his size and legs, so Detroit will also have to change the way they play in order to be ready for that.
Of course, the Lions offense should be able to move the ball against the Bills. But given the way they looked in the second half of last game, along with the fact that Jared Goff will have to play outdoors here, I trust Buffalo to come up with a few extra stops.
Dan Campbell also happens to be 8-18 straight-up as a road underdog with Detroit. Meanwhile, Joe Brady might be in for Sean McDermott as head coach, but the Bills are 14-2 SU as home favorites since the start of the 2024 season.
Lions vs. Bills Player Props
Dawson Knox Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
In Week 1, Dalton Kincaid had five catches for 130 yards. He’s pretty clearly the top pass-catching tight end in this offense, and he’s probably one of the best weapons in the league at his position. However, Knox is still going to be a part of this Bills offense, and there might be more opportunities for him this week. If Detroit pays more attention to Kincaid because of last week’s performance, Brady will be ready with a game plan that utilizes Knox. Knox had two catches for 42 yards when these teams last met, and I can see some more receptions than that — even if he goes for fewer yards.
Lions vs. Bills Pick
Our OptaAI player prop projections have Knox finishing with 22.48 receiving yards, which is an edge of 26.0% on a receiving yard total of 13.5. Well, you can still find 12.5 at several books, making the edge even larger. So, while I would love to have some more action on a matchup this exciting, I’m strictly playing Knox’s Over. If this turns into a shootout, he might even cash this on a single reception.
Bet: Knox Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
