Matt Youmans – NFL Divisional Round Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Divisional Round best bets.
Buffalo at Denver (-1)
It’s too simplistic to pick the Bills because Josh Allen is the superior quarterback, but that’s exactly why Buffalo was able to win at Jacksonville last weekend. Allen accounted for 306 total yards (273 passing, 33 rushing) and three touchdowns, leading two long scoring drives in the fourth quarter. He simply outplayed Trevor Lawrence, who committed two turnovers, and is capable of doing the same in a duel with Bo Nix. It’s obvious Allen will need to be Superman to survive and advance in his mission to finally reach the Super Bowl. Aside from the quarterback position, almost all edges go to the Broncos.
The Bills attack with the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense (159.6 yards per game), but their weakness is their 28th-ranked run defense. Denver led the league with 68 sacks in the regular season and has the No. 3 scoring defense (18.3 ppg). Broncos coach Sean Payton will design a run-heavy offensive game plan featuring rookie RJ Harvey and Nix, who rushed for 43 yards when Buffalo blew out the Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round last year. The Bills’ past two playoff losses to Kansas City were each by three-point margins and this one is likely to go to the wire too. I lean to the short home favorite and Under 46, but those are only leans and I’ll pass on the side and total. The line is 1.5 at several books, making a teaser look more attractive.
Best Bets: Buffalo Bills +7.5 and Seattle Seahawks -1 on a 6-point teaser; Bo Nix Over 24.5 rushing yards.
San Francisco at Seattle (-7)
Mike Macdonald was one of the top head-coaching hires in recent years. The former Baltimore defensive coordinator owns a 24-10 record in two seasons and has built the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (17.2 ppg) in Seattle. The 49ers need no reminders about the Seahawks’ strength because when these teams met in Week 18, San Francisco was limited to 173 total yards in a 13-3 loss. The 49ers rebounded in the wild-card round with a 23-19 win at Philadelphia, and the Eagles and Seahawks are similar teams in several ways.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan knows the going will be tough on the ground — Christian McCaffrey totaled only 71 yards on 23 carries in the past two games against the Eagles and Seahawks — so expect Shanahan to put this game on the arm of Brock Purdy, who will throw more to McCaffrey out of the backfield. With tight end George Kittle out and linebacker Fred Warner not ready to return yet, the 49ers are banged up and at a disadvantage on a short week. But the Seahawks also have problems, and quarterback Sam Darnold is the issue. Darnold suffered an oblique injury this week, and the quality of his play is always questionable when he’s healthy. Darnold has committed a league-high 20 turnovers this season.
The teams combined for 30 and 16 points in their two meetings this season, so the Under appears to be an obvious play, and hopefully not too obvious. I bet Under 45.5 (a number still available at DraftKings) and 49ers +7.5 (a number that is gone) early in the week. It’s not going to be a stunner if Shanahan, Purdy and McCaffrey find a way on the road for the second week in a row, but the most likely result is the Seattle defense gets it done in an ugly game.
Bets Bets: San Francisco 49ers +7 and Under 45.5
Houston at New England (-3)
The Texans overcame quarterback C.J. Stroud’s poor play (two lost fumbles and one interception) to win at Pittsburgh on Monday, but that had a lot to do with the Steelers’ impotent offense. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye can produce big plays, and I’m counting on Maye to prove the Houston defense does not deserve comparisons to the 1985 Chicago Bears. Maye takes too many sacks — 47 in the regular season and five against the Chargers last week — and how well the New England offensive line holds up is a huge key. I’m not a believer in Stroud, who’s now without wideout Nico Collins (concussion), and do have faith in Maye and Patriots coach Mike Vrabel’s defense. I bet New England -2.5 (-115) at Circa Sports early this week and that play had much to do with the good number. I’m sticking with the home favorite.
Best Bet: New England Patriots -3
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Chicago
If the weather conditions were ideal, the Rams would probably roll. But the weather will be an equalizer on Sunday night in Chicago, where it will be around 10 degrees and windy on the lakefront. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has a finger injury and, according to ESPN, never has played in a game when the temperature was below 20 at kickoff. Los Angeles ranked No. 1 in scoring offense (30.5 ppg) in the regular season and put up 34 points at Carolina last week, but the weather will make this challenging for Stafford and wideouts Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. The positive aspect is the Rams are built to win on the ground too, led by running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, and the Chicago run defense is weak.
The Bears are living lucky with fourth-quarter comebacks, but their defense led the league with 33 takeaways, and a +22 turnover differential is a formula for success. Caleb Williams will need to use his scrambling ability to escape the Rams’ pass rush, something he did exceptionally well last week to beat the Packers. I’ve got a Super Bowl ticket on the Rams at 30-1 odds, but this game is concerning and it’s not going to be easy, so I’m hedging with the underdog.
Best Bets: Chicago Bears +4; Caleb Williams to score a touchdown +390.
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