Matt Youmans – NFL Week 15 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 15 best bets.
Miami at Pittsburgh (-3)
In one of the strangest twists to this NFL season, the Miami Dolphins have turned into one of the hottest teams in the league. Mike McDaniel, a coach who was the butt of jokes and all but buried at the end of October, has steered the improbable turnaround.
A cold Monday night in Pittsburgh, where temperatures are expected to dip below 20 degrees, will reveal if the Dolphins are for real. The Steelers will be in their comfort zone, playing in weather conditions fit for the AFC North, while Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will likely resemble a frozen fish out of water. This is when home-field advantage should truly matter.
In Monday home games under coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-1 straight up. If that trend is not convincing enough, consider that Pittsburgh is 22-1 at home on Monday nights since 1992. And here’s a bonus trend — the Dolphins have dropped 13 consecutive games, including the playoffs, when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder, according to ESPN.
Of course, handicapping the matchup is not as simple as being a meteorologist. The Steelers are a seriously flawed team with a weak run defense, and the Dolphins’ strength is their No. 8-ranked rushing offense. Miami rushed for 239 yards against the Jets last week, while Pittsburgh allowed 217 rushing yards in a win at Baltimore. So while Tagovailoa might not have a hot hand on a cold night, his most effective move could be to hand the ball off to running backs Jaylen Wright and De’Von Achane.
The Pittsburgh defense was delivered some bad news this week when pass rusher T.J. Watt suffered a collapsed lung during treatment by team doctors. Watt is out. The good news is rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, an important run stopper, is expected to return from a knee injury after a two-game absence.
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock against the Ravens by passing for 284 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers and no sacks, but Rodgers has been unreliable in terms of stringing together back-to-back big games.
The Steelers (7-6) could take a key step toward controlling the division and getting Tomlin, who’s had 18 straight non-losing seasons, closer to a winning record. The Dolphins, who have won four in a row to reach 6-7, would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. I’ll follow the Monday night trends and fade Tagovailoa in the deep freeze.
Best Bets: Steelers -3 and Under 42
Cleveland at Chicago (-7.5)
The weather report is also important in this game. It will be around 10 degrees with a wind chill around minus-10 on the lakefront, setting the stage for one of the coldest games in Soldier Field history. The weather favors the Bears, who rank No. 2 by averaging 152.6 rushing yards per game, and quarterback Caleb Williams can make more plays with his legs while being asked to do less as a passer. Browns rookie Shedeur Sanders passed for 364 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Titans, but Sanders is not a dangerous runner and he’s facing a Chicago defense that leads the league with 18 interceptions.
Best Bet: Browns-Bears Under 39
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-5.5)
A week ago, Kansas City coach Andy Reid and his players were talking about the need to run the table to reach the playoffs. A week later, the Chiefs (6-7) are singing the same tune with even more desperation. Reid turned into a bad gambler in the 20-10 loss to Houston which dropped quarterback Patrick Mahomes to 9-17 ATS in his past 26 starts. Do the bettors who have been losing with the Chiefs ride the bandwagon another week or finally jump off? I’ll ride this out. Both defenses are playing well and both offensive lines are depleted, so those factors should lead to a low-scoring and ugly game. I’m playing the Chiefs on moneyline parlays and also reluctantly laying the points with a smaller bet.
Best Bet: Chiefs -5.5 and Under 41.5 (half-unit each)
Green Bay (-2.5) at Denver
The team on a 10-game winning streak is a home underdog and the sharp money is on the road favorite. Since the beginning of October, the Broncos have been good and lucky, winning seven games by four points or fewer. Denver’s defense leads the league with 55 sacks to help overcome the offense’s shortcomings. Edge rusher Micah Parsons has been a force for the Green Bay defense, and Jordan Love gives the Packers the quarterback edge in this matchup. This has the look of a 20-17 type of game, but I respect the Broncos more than most skeptics and don’t have a strong opinion picking a side.
Best Bet: Packers-Broncos Under 42.5
Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
As underdogs of four points or more, Lions quarterback Jared Goff and coach Dan Campbell are 17-3 ATS. Detroit leads the league in scoring offense (30.3 ppg), but its defense took a costly hit when star safety Brian Branch went down with a season-ending injury in Week 14. Branch’s absence makes a bad pass defense worse, and Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ No. 4-ranked scoring offense (29.2 ppg) will take advantage. Maybe the Lions are square ‘dogs and maybe the Over is too obvious, but this should be an entertaining duel with a playoff feel to it.
Best Bet: Lions +6 and Over 54.5 (half-unit each)
For more NFL Week 15 best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
