Matt Youmans – NFL Week 6 Best Bets:
It’s not easy to pick NFL winners, and there’s no better example than Circa Survivor. A contest that kicked off with 25,017 entries was down to 2,910 entering Week 6. The contest carnage is agonizing to watch and it’s fascinating for those of us still involved and chasing a piece of a pie worth more than $25 million.
My small group still has more than a few entries remaining and we used the Patriots, Colts and Rams on this week’s entries. Just picking straight-up winners in Survivor is almost always a sweat. Rarely do you get a rocking-chair winner, though the Rams should be one as double-digit favorites against the Cardinals. Here are my best bets for Week 6.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Buffalo fans are invading Las Vegas this weekend with full confidence in Josh Allen, who’s often the quarterback version of Superman. Allen has totaled 15 touchdowns in five games. He passed for 210 yards and rushed for 121 more Monday night in a 37-34 overtime victory over the Rams. Allen is difficult to bet against, but a bad Buffalo defense is the other side of the story. The Bills rank 30th in yards allowed (388.6 per game) and 28th in scoring (28.2 ppg). That defense surrendered 33 first downs and 454 yards and was on the field for 78 plays while forcing no turnovers against the Rams.
It’s a tired Buffalo defense and Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins needs to take advantage. Cousins has been solid so far (12 touchdown passes, four interceptions), but he must get more help from the running backs and lean on tight end Brock Bowers, who has 24 receptions for 312 yards and three touchdowns in three games since returning from injury. In their previous home game against the Chiefs on Oct. 4, the Raiders were 4.5-point dogs in a 30-27 loss, and this matchup with the Bills will probably have a similar result.
Best Bet: Raiders +4.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
The Chiefs are 4-0 and off a bye after their win in Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes appears back to normal, Kenneth Walker ranks second in the league with 537 rushing yards, and Kansas City’s defense ranks seventh in scoring (19.3 ppg). I bet the Chiefs at 15-1 odds to win the Super Bowl over the summer and they are playing like the top team in the AFC. So why take the points with the 0-5 Chargers? Great question, and we’ll see if this is a good answer. It’s too early to claim the Chargers and coach Jim Harbaugh will quit because teams in this type of hole usually show some fight. Justin Herbert has been bad, needs to turn it around and will get help with receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston returning from injuries. Also, it’s worth noting that divisional underdogs are 15-7 ATS this season — and the Chargers are in that role this week along with the Texans, Browns, Jets, Titans and Cardinals.
Best Bet: Chargers +7.5
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
It’s time to buy on bad news Monday night. The Commanders are embarrassed and surrounded by negativity after quarterback Jayden Daniels and coach Dan Quinn allowed the clock to expire while in field-goal range at the end of a 27-27 tie with the Giants. Daniels deserves all the criticism he’s getting and Quinn’s job deserves to be in jeopardy. This should be a good spot to bet on Washington to respond. Meanwhile, San Francisco is 5-0 following a tough division win at Seattle, so this could be a letdown spot. The 49ers are playing like the best team in the league while quarterback Brock Purdy plays his way into the MVP race. Favorites laying six or more points are 7-15-3 ATS this season — and the 49ers are in that role this week along with the Patriots, Colts, Rams and Chiefs.
Best Bet: Commanders +7.5
Two more plays for Sunday:
Falcons +1.5 vs Bears
Cowboys-Packers Over 53
Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 20-12
For more NFL Week 6 best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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