Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 6 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 6 best bets:
New York Jets (+7.5 -115) at New England Patriots
The Patriots offense put up 536 yards and 8.1 yards per play in their 45-17 win over Las Vegas last weekend and look like they are back on track after a slow start. After two road losses, the Jets came home and got a grinding 17-12 victory over Cleveland, holding the Browns to just 198 yards of total offense. Plus, they sacked Deshaun Watson eight times.
Although New England’s offense was explosive last week, the Jets defense can get them into third-down situations where the Patriots are 20th and the Jets are 8th defensively. The Jets are also sixth defensively in the red zone while New England is 18th on offense.
New England comes into this one banged up at multiple positions, including on the OL, with LT Will Campbell likely to miss. AJ Brown is likely out at WR with Mack Hollins already on IR. Plus, RB TreVeyon Henderson will be out for a rushing offense that should struggle to run against the Jets’ No. 6 EPA Defense.
The Jets will be without Adonai Mitchell but are getting first-round WR Omar Cooper Jr. back from IR.
New England might be getting a bit overbought here, and we are already seeing some 7s.
New Orleans Saints (Pick ’em) at New York Giants
Who wants to rush to bet a team that lost two straight games at home by double digits and only gained 142 total yards, plus is a road favorite (several 1s out there) to boot? That would be me.
Without Jaxson Dart, the Giants are 29th in both Rushing EPA and Rush Success Rate, which means they will not likely be able to exploit a Saints defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Rush and 32nd in Rush Success Rate.
Defensively, the Saints play the most zone (85.6%) in the league, and this should force Jameis Winston into turning the ball over. He threw two picks two weeks ago vs. Arizona, who also runs zone almost 81% of the time.
This is also a step down in class for the Saints, who have had to play the ninth-toughest schedule and are 1-4, while the 3-1-1 Giants have played the easiest schedule in the league. Although they are 3-1-1, you can make the argument that they should be 1-4. They had to survive against Tennessee, the worst team in the league, when the Titans had a first-and-goal before Cam Ward threw a goal line INT. The following week, the Giants had to survive Arizona having a first-and-goal at the four-yard line in the final minute, only for Jacoby Brissett to throw a pick-six on the game’s final play. Last week, the G-Men were down 27-13 in the 4th quarter and rallied to send it to OT and should have lost again in the extra period if not for the miscommunication and the ineptitude of Washington.
The Saints lost three straight games at home and are laying a point in many markets here. That tells you all that you need to know about the Giants’ lucky fortunes of late.
Washington Commanders (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers went to 5-0 last week, winning at Seattle. They are now 3-0 in the NFC West with two road victories (LA comes to Santa Clara in Week 14). Now they host the lowly Commanders, who have been getting crapped on all week (and rightfully so) on every talk show, every podcast, every print article, every social media video, etc.
Washington has a bye week next week, so they have the opportunity to get right back out on the field on Monday Night to erase their wrongs from last week.
The 49ers have somehow persevered through the all the injuries, and they will be without Dre Greenlaw this week. His injury, plus the cluster DL injuries, will leave the 49ers with a difficult time in stopping a mobile QB. There is a possibility Nick Bosa comes back, but they may either have him on a pitch count or save him for the game at Atlanta next week before its bye.
Keep in mind that Seattle gave San Francisco 21 points with turnovers in its own end where the 49ers had just 29 yards of offense on those drives.
It is curious that this line has yet to move to teaser protection territory at 9 with no one seeming to rush to bet the Commanders and the 49ers as one of the two remaining unbeaten teams.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Texans +8.5/Buccaneers +8.5 (6-point)
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Titans/Colts OVER 44.5
BEST OF THE REST
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Selling high here on a Bills team staying out west for a second consecutive week and off an OT win in Los Angeles with a short week.
Josh Allen is the rightful MVP favorite, and he has had to be because the Bills’ defense has been poor. They are 30th in Defensive EPA.
Last week was a good time to sell the Raiders, and now they are worth a short-term buy here against a defense that was on the field for 78 snaps on short rest.
Los Angeles Chargers +8 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers started four rookies on the offensive line last week and yet with a 17-10 lead at 10 minutes to go, Jim Harbaugh decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 in his own territory and essentially gave a Broncos offense, who had done nothing in the second half, the opportunity to get back into and eventually win the game.
The Bolts are the first team since the 2004 Dolphins to start the season 0-5 with a preseason win total of 9.5 or higher.
Kansas City is off a bye, and Andy Reid has always been good in this spot (25-18 ATS).
Having said all that, this number has not moved hardly at all and, in fact, has seen some support for the Chargers. Kansas City is short-handed for this one at receiver, so the Chiefs likely lean heavy on Kenneth Walker III, but the Chargers defense is 6th in EPA/Rush and 7th in Rush Success Rate.
As bleak as it looks, there is a path for the Chargers to hang within this number despite the injuries, lousy QB play from Justin Herbert, and questionable coaching from Harbaugh and his staff.
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