Matt Youmans – NFL Week 3 Best Bets:
Two weeks into the NFL season, three teams that had lofty expectations are suddenly lost and nowhere to be found. The Giants are doomed without injured quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Packers are pathetic for a variety of reasons and coach Matt LaFleur needs to pay the price. The Chargers continue to choke as favorites, a segue to my best bets for Week 3.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-7)
It’s time to tune out Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, who’s full of it. He’s full of foolish hype, lame motivational tactics and phony optimism. He’s full of something else when he talks about Justin Herbert one day becoming the greatest quarterback the game has ever seen. Don’t believe the Harbaugh hype anymore.
When it comes to the Bolts, lightning does strike twice. The NFL gifted the Chargers with home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, two of the league’s worst teams last season, and Harbaugh fumbled twice by identical scores of 26-14. A team that was a heavy favorite to start 2-0 might not find the win column in the first two months as the schedule gets much tougher.
Nothing is cool about the Chargers right now. Harbaugh’s act is old, Herbert is finally getting criticized for being an underachiever and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel looks more like a clumsy loser than a misunderstood genius.
Everything is cool about the Bills and MVP favorite Josh Allen, who has a total of nine touchdowns during a 2-0 start. Buffalo has a slick new stadium and a new coach who’s orchestrating the highest-scoring offense in the league at 38.5 points per game.
So, naturally, this seems like the right time to buy on bad news. The darkest hour is just before dawn — and 0-2 football teams play with desperation and hunger against fat and happy 2-0 teams. A play on the Chargers probably makes no sense to most bettors, but that’s also why it can make sense. The NFL is a twisted world. Teams and quarterbacks who are terrible one week are often terrific the following week. In this case, the Chargers were terrible for two weeks, but they are better suited for the underdog role.
Best Bet: Chargers +7
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield was a mess, the Tampa Bay defense did the impossible by turning Deshaun Watson into Tom Brady for a day, and thousands of former Circa Survivor contestants despise the Buccaneers. A week after the Bucs were upset by the Browns, they will likely resemble a totally different team and snap their 11-game ATS losing streak. The Vikings are 1-7 straight up in their past eight trips to Tampa, and the return of quarterback Kyler Murray from injury is not going to magically fix a sputtering offense. Mayfield will show up this week, one week too late for those ill-fated Survivor picks.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +1.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
My top play was going to be the Bears +3.5 with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Bagent was supposed to step in for starter Caleb Williams, who was carted off with a life-threatening hamstring injury late in Chicago’s 9-3 loss to the Vikings. Unfortunately, Bagent was surprisingly sent to concussion protocol and is doubtful for Monday night. Bears coach Ben Johnson, no longer touting his offense as the best in NFL history, will probably be forced to go with 38-year-old Case Keenum. The good news for the Bears is Keenum could be better than the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, who threw two interceptions in an uninspiring comeback win at Tennessee last week. Philadelphia is a phony 2-0 team soon to be exposed.
Best Bet: Bears +4.5
Four more plays for Sunday:
Steelers +3.5 vs Bengals
Dolphins +10.5 vs Chiefs
Ravens -3.5 vs Cowboys
Broncos +2.5 vs Rams
Last week: 5-2 against the spread
Season: 9-5
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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