NFL Week 3 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
While my NFL Week 2 Overreaction Systems piece produced a 37-27 ATS record in all the plays it recommended, unfortunately, I didn’t decipher the Week 2 board as well, as my Best Bets plays went 4-5 ATS, dropping my season-long record to 10-8 ATS (55.5%). Ironically, at this point in the football season, that is the exact same winning percentage I have in college football as well. Now, if I can go the entire season hitting at that clip, it will be a successful run.
In any case, this week’s NFL betting board has been complicated by a slew of key quarterback injuries, specifically in the NFC. If you’re a fan of an NFC playoff hopeful and your QB is still upright, congratulations. That said, there is always value to be found in the schedule, and for this week’s Best Bets, I am turning exclusively to this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Reports for guidance. I am specifically looking at the Week 3 trap information I published on Tuesday for reasoning in my first step of attacking these games. My plays get started early with the Thursday night game in Green Bay and run through MNF. I’m actually going with 10 games, a season high, as I like the info this week a little more than usual. Good luck this weekend!
Thursday, September 24, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Total 42.5)
Early in the week, the public has been bombarded with the trend that teams that played an overtime game on Sunday struggle if they have to play on Thursday night right away. That trend, of course, goes against Green Bay. However, I am struggling to get behind a team that hasn’t had a play in the opposing team’s red zone and is traveling to take on a team with one of the best home-field advantages in football in its home opener. So it’s a no-side play for me.
However, looking at these two teams, I don’t believe we have seen anything of what either offense is capable of yet. The Packers showed flashes against Minnesota, but we haven’t seen a breakout from QB Jordan Love and his talented group of pass catchers. At the same time, Atlanta possesses one of the best young groups of skill players in the league and will now be blessed with a professional QB back under center on TNF. As such, my play for this game will be on the Over 42.5.
From an analytics standpoint, we do have one strong system in play: Since 2016, Week 3 games involving any team scoring 15.0 PPG or fewer in their first two outings have Over the total at a 29-15 (65.9%) rate. We also have a couple of trends showing GB QB Love is on an 18-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win, and Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Falcons-Packers series. This is a low total for such an offensively-loaded talent game.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Green Bay-Atlanta over 42.5
Sunday, September 27, 2026
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
On the 2026 NFL slate, I don’t think any team will face a tougher task than the Lions did last Thursday night in Buffalo. Not only was it a short-rest road game, but it was in the environment of an elite team opening up its brand-new stadium. It was a figurative buzzsaw. Now they get a chance to come back home, where they are a very good, prolific team. In fact, over their last 41 home games, Detroit is averaging 32.5 PPG!
I’m pretty sure the Jets can’t keep up even if head coach Dan Campbell’s team plays an “average” game. As it is, Campbell is on a 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS streak coming off an outright loss, and the Lions are 27-15-1 ATS in their last 43 home contests. At the same time, the Jets franchise is on an ugly 13-53 SU and 22-42 ATS skid as road underdogs since 2016. They also are staring at a very hard-to-overcome system based upon the line for this game: Teams in the NFL that start their seasons 1-1 SU are just 10-28 SU and 14-24 ATS (36.8%) when playing as underdogs of +3.5 or higher in Week 3 since 2016.
Their QB Geno Smith faces a couple of key systems as well: 1) The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 29-54 SU and 33-50 ATS (39.8%). 2) Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 17-34 SU and 15-36 ATS (29.4%). With the line at -6.5 and 73% of the handle at DraftKings on Detroit, there is no concern since, in NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 126-106 ATS (54.3%).
NFL Best Bet: Give me Detroit -6.5 to bounce back convincingly over the Jets
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (+10.5)
For as much as I wish I would have grabbed this game when it was at -11.5, because I rarely have a power rating line off by more than 3 points, I’m still pleased to take at double-digits on Thursday morning. Be honest, are you overly impressed with what you’ve seen from the Chiefs in the first two games? While improved, they have been gifted by the NFL with two primetime home games to open the QB Patrick Mahomes comeback tour. Well, to me, they’ve looked like typical Chiefs in the first two games, not being great at finishing drives and kicking a lot of field goals. That does not make for a great big road favorite.
We know that Mahomes is 36-2 SU but 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) in his L38 games as a favorite of more than 7 points, and Kansas City is 23-11 SU but 8-24 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020. Plus, over the last decade, the highest-scoring teams in the league after two weeks, or those scoring more than 31 PPG, have gone just 16-18 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in Week 3 when not matched up against a similarly prolific offense. We also know that Miami had the opposite scheduling scenario, two road games on the West Coast to start the season. Miami is 64-35 ATS (64.6%) at home since 2014. When looking at their 0-2 start, teams in the NFL that start their seasons 0-2 SU and ATS are 20-22 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs since 2015.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Miami +10.5 to give a spirited effort versus Kansas City
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)
If you’re concerned about how the Colts have fared defensively in the first two weeks, remember they’ve faced the Lamar Jackson- and Patrick Mahomes-led offenses in those contests. The fact that they are nearly 1-1 in those games has me believing they are one of the better 0-2 teams in the league.
This system reflects the Colts’ ability to bounce back this week: Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 28-17 SU and 29-16 ATS (64.4%) since 2015. On top of that, Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen is on a 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG, and QB Daniel Jones is 17-21 SU but 22-17 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020.
I don’t feel the same about the Texans, who come off an outing scoring just 6 points on what was previously thought to be a sketchy Bengals defense. I think Houston is a different team without WR Nico Collins in the lineup, and it affects QB CJ Stroud a lot. Most bettors at DraftKings expect Houston to get its first win here, not Indy, as 73% of the handle is on the visitors. In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 218-258 ATS (45.8%) for -65.8 units. Given the obvious tendency for public bettors to love favorites, it’s clear they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games or what they mean for the competitors. The history of this head-to-head series also shows underdogs are 3-4-1 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight games of the Texans-Colts AFC South rivalry.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Indianapolis +1.5 to send Houston to 0-3
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Before last week’s win at Atlanta, the airwaves were full of trends describing how bad Carolina has been as a favorite. With that win, nobody seems to be talking about it anymore, as if the tendency no longer exists. Well, consider me still a buyer, as Carolina is 17-35 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016.
I’m sure a lot of the reason for this line and the public backing is because the Panthers have put up 71 points in their first two games. However, over the last decade, the highest-scoring teams in the league after two weeks, or those scoring more than 31 PPG, have gone just 16-18 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in Week 3 when not matched up against a similarly prolific offense.
Of course, coming to Cleveland is usually no picnic for NFC teams, as they are just 6-9 SU in their last 15 visits. The Browns are riding a high after their upset win at Tampa Bay, and had you asked most fans if they would be satisfied with head coach Todd Monken’s team at 1-1 after a tough two-game road trip in Florida to start the season, I’m sure they’d say yes.
Speaking of Monken, it’s in games where coaching figures to matter most (+1 to +3 small underdog lines) that rookie head coaches can hold their own best against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 84-68-2 ATS (55.3%). On top of that, underdogs have covered the last four meetings between Carolina and Cleveland.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Cleveland +2.5 against Carolina and 88%/85% backing from DK bettors
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
Hopefully by now, you’ve taken the time to read my NFL Week 3 Traps piece, because one of the foremost systems from that article indicates that teams in the NFL that start their seasons 0-2 SU and ATS are 20-22 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs since 2015. This, of course, pertains to the Bucs, who lost inexplicably to Cleveland at home last week. For this week, they get a matchup that on the surface looks very tough in 2-0 Minnesota, but below the surface looks very winnable.
First, Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight instances hosting Minnesota. It’s a tough road trip for a team from a cold state to visit Tampa. Secondly, with Vikings QB Kyler Murray returning from injury, there are several reasons for concern for head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team: 1) Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road – the results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 29-54 SU and 33-50 ATS (39.8%). 2) In their last 69 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 33-36 SU & 28-40-1 ATS (41.2%). This trend dates back to 2021. And 3) since 2021, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 12-17-1 SU and 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%).
Murray looked terrible in his brief opener against Green Bay before getting hurt. Trusting him as a road favorite here is not in my playbook for Week 3. Plus, with 42% of the bets but 75% of the handle on the side of the hosts here, it seems perhaps that some sharp money is getting behind the Bucs.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Tampa Bay +1.5 to get an elusive first win.
Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I can see why novice bettors may be abandoning Arizona after the ugly Week 2 loss at home to Seattle. However, the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs, and recent history shows that the Cardinals have been a far better road team lately: Arizona is 36-26 ATS (58.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019. Yes, last week’s 31-7 loss was ugly, but NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 24-42 SU but 43-23 ATS (65.2%) over the last decade-plus.
On top of that, teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been solid bets as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 35-65 SU but 63-34-3 ATS (64.9%) since the start of the 2020 season. If you are thinking of backing the 49ers here, I must warn you that getting behind a team that has 94% of the handle at DK on it is rarely a good idea: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 218-258 ATS (45.8%) for -65.8 units. It is curious that the line isn’t moving despite the disparity.
Sure, the 49ers have looked dominant in their first two games, but since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 28-24 SU but 19-31-2 ATS (38%) in Week 3. Since QB Brock Purdy took over, he is 5-7 SU and 2-10 ATS in his last 12 starts, following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points. This feels like a classic NFL trap game where the 49ers will simply be happy to win the game, with no concern for their ATS backers.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Arizona +8.5 at San Francisco
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys (Total 52.5)
In my Week 3 NFL traps piece, a system shows that teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3, with a 20-9 SU and ATS (69%) record since 2015. That pertains to the Ravens for their contest versus the Cowboys. Another trend shows that Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is on runs of 8-5 SU and 8-4 ATS vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG, and Baltimore is 49-27 ATS (64.5%) in road/neutral games since 2017.
What do these things mean to me? I believe the Ravens are due for a big scoring effort after getting shut down by the Saints in the second half of their loss Sunday, regardless of this game being played in Brazil. Now, this does seem like a public play, and 90% of the handle at DK being on the Over confirms it is, but so was last Thursday’s obvious Over in the Bills-Lions contest, and that game produced 72 points. The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 163-125 ATS (56.6%)!
To end up being a shootout, however, the Cowboys are going to have to do their part, and QB Dak Prescott looked very sharp against Washington last Sunday. He is 14-2 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022. This head-to-head series has also been a high-scoring one, with Over the total 5-0-1 in the last six of the Ravens-Cowboys non-conference series
NFL Best Bet: Let’s roll with the somewhat obvious OVER 52.5 in Baltimore-Dallas
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
The SNF and MNF games this week both feature 1-1 home underdogs with lofty playoff aspirations for 2026, and both face aging NFC powers that haven’t looked sharp early. Concerning Denver, home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 22-27-1 SU but 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) dating back to 2017. Having just won a big one versus Jacksonville, momentum has also been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 17-27-1 SU and 19-25-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 45, but those coming off a win are on a current 33-11 SU and 25-19 ATS (56.8%) surge.
The Rams are also off a first win of the season and are allowing just 16.5 PPG in their first two contests. However, an unusual stat angle shows that the league’s best defensive teams, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 21-27-1 SU and 21-28 ATS (42.9%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. They certainly wouldn’t be qualifying for this angle had QB Jaxson Dart not gotten hurt, as his absence was felt dramatically with Jameis Winston looking inept in relief. Plus, with prized offseason additions Aaron Donald on a snap count and Myles Garrett on the injured list, this defense isn’t at its best right now. I’ll take advantage and look for an eighth straight cover by underdogs in the head-to-head series between these teams.
NFL Best Bet: It’s Denver +2.5 for me versus the Rams on SNF
Monday, September 28, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+4.5)
What seemed to be a devastating and crippling injury for the Bears last week, with QB Caleb Williams going down, has now settled into a minor hamstring pull that shouldn’t keep him shelved for long. The franchise will breathe a sigh of relief, and it should motivate them to fight hard as an underdog without him on Monday night. With as high as the expectations were for them, perhaps unrealistically, I can assure you that they won’t go down easily in this one to Philadelphia. Sure, head coach Ben Johnson’s offense didn’t look good last Sunday even with Williams, but that could actually play into our hands here, since the defense looked good, and NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) since 2015.
If you’re curious about the recent history, NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 18-21 SU but 21-17-1 ATS (55.3%) dating back to September 2021. The last 37 of these games have seen Under the total go 24-11-2 (68.6%) as well, with games producing just 41.3 PPG. Furthermore, in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 27-23 SU and 31-19 ATS (62%) surge since 2019. If that weren’t enough, won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 51-44 SU but just 38-55-2 ATS (40.9%) in the last 95 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
Of course, the betting public is also heavily backing Chicago, with 55% of the handle and 75% of the bets on 2-0 Philly. That is a good sign in itself that the number of bets is far greater than the handle, a sign of novice wagering. It doesn’t even address the fact that when the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-155 ATS (47.3%) and 138-153 ATS (47.4%), respectively. With the Eagles showing a very unconvincing 2-0 record now, and underdogs 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Eagles-Bears meetings at Soldier Field, I’ll side with the hosts.
NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Chicago +4.5 to compete well with Philly on MNF
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub, exclusively at VSiN.com.
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