Miami Dolphins 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The end to Miami’s 2023 campaign was extremely disappointing. After a win over the Commanders to improve to 9-3, the Dolphins finished the season 2-4 SU and ATS. That included a loss to the Chiefs on Wild Card Weekend in a brutally cold playoff game. Despite that finish. Miami enters 2024 with expectations of being one of the best offensive teams in the league, and by extension, one of the best teams in the league overall.

Offense

The Dolphins finished seventh in offensive EPA (0.054) and third in dropback EPA per play (0.167). Their success on offense is driven by pure speed. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest pass-catchers in the league. The duo posted PFF offensive grades of 93.4 and 90.3 respectively. They combined to rack up 1,112 yards after the catch and 18 touchdowns in 2023. Miami bolstered their depth by adding Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. 

 

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Mike McDaniel’s offensive scheme – which is derived from the Shanahan scheme – maximizes almost any running back, and the Dolphins have two great ones in De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Achane ran for 813 yards last season and averaged 4.94 yards per carry after contact. Mostert was tied for fifth in runs of 10 or more yards (30). This group is likely going to be productive once again.

Even the team’s biggest perceived weakness – quarterback – is a strength. Tua Tagovailoa has thrived in McDaniel’s system. Tagovailoa was the highest-graded passer by PFF in 2023 (88.6). He posted career highs in completion percentage (68.2%), passing yards (4,878) and touchdowns (30). Despite throwing the most interceptions of his career (15) he actually posted his best turnover worthy play rate (3.4%). There is little reason to believe that he and this offense cannot be among the best once again this season.

Defense

On defense this team looks average on paper. But with an offense like this, average is perfectly acceptable.

Miami’s biggest strength seems to be up front. Bradley Chubb played in 16 games for the second consecutive season in 2023 and posted career-highs in pressures (70), sacks (13) and forced fumbles (6). The ageless Calais Campbell joined the Dolphins, and both Jaelan Phillips and Shaquil Barrett were very strong in 2023. Pass rush should be a strength.

Kendall Fuller was brought in this offseason to shore up the cornerback position. He will play alongside Jalen Ramsey, giving Miami some competent play at the position. Still, Ramsey is not the player he once was, and the depth behind him and Fuller seems very weak. Kader Kohou is an extremely average cornerback and the other rostered corners are statistically poor.

Statistically, this was one of the best rush defenses by EPA standards, as they finished 10th in that category in 2023. However, much of that was due to opposing teams abandoning their running games in order to keep up with their explosive offense. They were 18th in adjusted line yards allowed per carry (3.99).

Outlook

The outlook for 2024 is extremely positive for the Miami Dolphins. McDaniel’s offensive scheme gives them a floor of 10th-best offense in the NFL. They have the best wide receiver duo in the league, a stable of strong runners and an extremely competent quarterback. Add into that mix the league’s eighth-easiest schedule by opponent win totals and you get a team that could compete for not only its division, but the top seed in the AFC.

Miami Dolphins Pick: Over 9.5 Wins

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