Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to NFL Week 5:

In Glengarry Glen Ross, the classic 1992 film written by David Mamet, there’s a great scene where Alex Baldwin plays Blake, an executive at a real estate agency who is meeting with his sales force before they hit the road to sell properties in Arizona.  Baldwin is impatient, wanting to start the meeting, as the salesmen slowly gather. One salesman, Shelly Levene, played by Jack Lemmon, sheepishly heads for the coffee machine to get his fix. Blake sees Levene fumbling around, looking out of sorts, and announces loudly, “Put that coffee down.  Coffee is for closers only.”  Do you know what else is for closers? The fourth quarter. And last night, we saw another perfect example of an NFL team not closing. 

Tampa Bay had the game in their grasp not once but twice. They fumbled away their ability to close out the game. Then they screwed up their ability to win the game with a horrible series, their worst of the game, after they intercepted the ball at the Atlanta 28, with 1:44 left in the game, holding a three-point lead. The Falcons had three times outs, so all Tampa needed to do was to not go backward, keep the ball in play, and try for a first down, or kick another field goal, going up six. What happened? They went backward, got a holding call, and before long, punted, and the Falcons had only used two of their time-outs. 

 

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For the second week in a row, the Falcons made a 50-plus yard field goal to send the game into overtime, then won in overtime with a walk-off touchdown. This begs the question: Is Tampa any good because they couldn’t close, or is Atlanta the best of the NFL South because they have won two games against their rivals in the last few seconds? When the game was over, the Falcons celebrated like they won the Super Bowl, so they must believe in their greatness. 

My sense is neither team was good. Thursday night games are hard, particularly on the defensive teams, as this game looked like a seven-on-seven tournament, with each quarterback seemingly having the ability to do whatever they wanted. Facing injuries in their secondary and looking tired, Tampa allowed Kirk Cousins to have one of his finest days passing. Cousins attempted 58 passes, threw for 508 yards, and four touchdowns. The Falcons only punted once, averaged 6.8 per play on 81 plays, had 28 first downs, and seemed unstoppable.  

The Bucs were unstoppable until the end, as they averaged 6.5 per play on just 51 plays and averaged 0.61 points per play. So, who is the best team in the NFC South? Before the game, the odds were similar between all three teams, with Carolina being around 30-1.  After last night, I am not sure any handicapper in the country believes the Falcons are the best team, nor do I feel they would put the Saints or Bucs as the favorite. They all look the same—good, not great, clearly holding significant weaknesses that impact any chance they can advance come playoff time. Are any of these teams going to win first prize, like in Glengarry, which was a Cadillac Eldorado, second prize was a set of steak knives, and third prize was your fired. Unless they make significant improvements, all three will be fired at the end. 

For me, my money is on the Bucs to win the South. They seem to be the most well-rounded team. Last night, they left their pass defense at home, as they did against the Lions in Week 2 when they escaped with the win. Last night, they gave the game away—and good for the Falcons. They took advantage. 

The Bucs can run the ball for the first time in three years and still have great playmakers at wide receiver. In addition, they are capable of playing good defense, especially when they get Antoine Winfield back. 

But can the Falcons keep winning these tight games? Can they keep winning with a defense that cannot rush the passer, cover very well, or create explosive plays. Next week they travel to Carolina, which looks like an easy win. For me, there are no easy wins for the Falcons, as each game will be hard because they cannot get control of the game with their defense. 

The NFC South will be fun to watch all year, and Carolina will have the biggest say on who wins the South. They won’t win it, but whatever team they upset, will struggle to win.  Essentially the winner of the South goes through Charlotte. The only thing for sure, none of the three looks worthy enough to drink coffee. Don’t forget, coffee is for closers. 

NFL QB RATINGS

TOP FIVE

1. Josh Allen – Based on the injuries to their defense, Allen will need an MVP season to get the Bills to 10 wins.

2. Jayden Daniels – 19 incompletions all season on 106 attempts. Wow. Wil this streak slow down? Of course. But right now, enjoy his amazing play.

3.. Sam Darnold – He has played great and owes a huge debt to the Vikings offensive line which has been sensational protecting him.

4. Brock Purdy – Purdy is missing all of his superstars, but he still averages 9.3 yards per attempt. Can we stop the nonsensical rhetoric about the other players making him shine? Purdy is legit.

5. Joe Burrow – In the last two weeks, Burrow has finally looked like the Joe of old.

BOTTOM FIVE

Anthony Richardson – So talented, so inconsistent, and so worried about his durability

Deshaun Watson – It never seems to get better, and with no offensive line protection, he gets no help. Study his play in the fourth quarter—it’s so bad. 

Trevor Lawrence – At some point, someone needs to coach his footwork and mechanics.  He is all over the place on every throw. It’s no wonder why he sprays the ball. 

Bo Nix – If they can get him to just complete the easy throws, he wouldn’t be on this list.  He has won two games but hasn’t improved much from Week 1. 

Jacoby Brissett – The guy is tough and a warrior. Anyone playing behind that offensive line in the NFL deserves a Purple Heart, not criticism. 

2024 NFL Power Ratings

At the four-game mark, it becomes easier to use stats to better understand the order of the NFL. Using the data collected on the 18 most important statistics towards winning, we can now take subjectivity out of the evaluation and use raw numbers. To model the correct betting lines, there needs to be an adjustment for home field and injuries. From here on, these ratings won’t be based on my eye test but rather the numbers that translate toward winning. 

New Orleans might seem too high to some with a 2-2 record. They would be 4-0 if they didn’t mess up two man-to-man defenses in the fourth quarter of their two losses. They gave away two games, dominated two, and now have the real test ahead of them, the World Champions on the road. That game will serve as a great indicator for the Saints moving forward.  

  1. Minnesota
  2. Baltimore
  3. Detroit
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. New Orleans
  6. Green Bay
  7. Buffalo
  8. LA Chargers
  9. San Francisco
  10. Seattle
  11. Dallas
  12. Washington
  13. Indianapolis
  14. Tampa Bay
  15. Chicago
  16. Houston
  17. Cincinnati
  18. NY Jets
  19. Denver
  20. Arizona
  21. Miami
  22. Kansas City
  23. Cleveland
  24. NY Giants
  25. Las Vegas
  26. LA Rams
  27. Atlanta
  28. Tennessee
  29. New England
  30. Philadelphia
  31. Jacksonville
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

Indy hasn’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t won a game since last November. Something is going to give. I am not sure I want to watch the give. I don’t trust Gus Bradley, I don’t trust Dougie Pederson, and I sure as hell don’t trust Trevor Lawrence. When I can list that many untrustworthy factors in a game, I cue Daryl and John and let them sing. If you can, then you are more trustworthy than me. 

NFL Line of the Week

Miami is an underdog to the Patriots. How can they be? I know, I know, they don’t have a quarterback. Simple reasoning, horrible excuse. The Patriots don’t have one either, nor do they have an offensive line or any skill players. If I’m Stephen Ross, the owner of the Dolphins, I would be furious to know my team isn’t a favorite against a bad Patriots team, regardless of the quarterback situation. I have believed in the Fins the last two weeks, and they haven’t believed in themselves. They look disorganized, poorly coached and not giving any effort. Don’t believe me, just watch the effort Tyreek Hill gave on the backward pass. I want to take Miami, but I cannot ignore what I have seen so far. 

Enjoy the games.  

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