Michael Lombardi – As bad NFL teams fall, big favorites rise:

The NFL wants parity. They want every game to be close. They want the betting line to be around 3, allowing the public to move the action to one side or another. This love of parity first started when Philadelphia Eagles owner Bert Bell went to Minneapolis to sign Stan Kostka, a star fullback. Kostka was named King Kong for his ability to dominate the game, and he was one of those “can’t miss” players (yes, they had them in the 1930s as well). Bell needed to find a way to get his name on the dotted line.  

During the 1930s, college football players were available to all teams. It was a completely open market with no rules, just straight cash homie, and because of their financial advantages and winning tradition,  the Packers, Bears and Giants dominated.  Bell’s franchise was at a complete crossroads of survival. 

 

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Kostka played Bell. He had offers from other teams, making Bell think he had a chance when, in reality, he had no chance.  Frustrated, Bell returned to Philadelphia and urged the other owners to initiate the draft. They did this for the good of the league, and the bad teams were rewarded with high picks, hoping to turn their team around.  

We still had dominant teams, from the Packers in the ’60s to the Steelers, Raiders and Cowboys in the ’70s and the NFC East in the ’80s, along with the 49ers. The league was now shifting from talent-based to placing a huge premium on the coaches. Finding the next Vince Lombardi, Chuck Noll, Bill Walsh, or Joe Gibbs became the focus of almost every team. Teams searched for the next great head coach, often causing many hirings and firings, separating the league into the “have” and the “have nots.” 

To skirt this problem, owners decided to find a bright young (emphasis on young and inexperienced) coach who dominated as a playcaller—even over a short time, on one side of the ball or the other. Then, subcontract the rest of the staff, allowing assistant coaches to make more money. Instead of first asking how a coach would rebuild the team, the owners asked, “Who else can you hire.”  

Having the right names in key positions became more important than the person doing the interviewing.  Every staff was subject to how the staff performed together, which reduced the importance of the talent needed to be the head coach. 

Besides the devaluing of the head coach, the new owners have wanted to become more involved with the team-building element, causing young personnel people, who are more college scouts than team builders, to run the franchise. There was a time in the NFL when the general manager constructed the team with an understanding of what it takes to win the game. Now, it has become a random talent acquisition search, and the gap between the “have” and the “have nots” widens.

There is no better example of the current model than the Panthers, who have gotten worse over the last year despite the coaching and general manager changes. They are not alone.  The Raiders, Giants, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, and Titans have all regressed and seem further away from winning a title than ever before. Has there ever been a time in the NFL when so many teams have zero chance to compete for a winning season? Bell wanted the draft to create parity, but now we have poor hiring, which has created a huge imbalance. 

So how does this help us when we handicap games?  The sportsbooks have a hard time adjusting to the bad teams. Professional bettors were determined to take the Panthers and the points for the first five weeks. The line was always moving in their favor. Then, reality set in on Sunday, and all the line movement was unnecessary. Now, not even the sharps want to take the Panthers as they look so bad, unwilling to tackle, unwilling to compete, and willing to turn the ball over. 

The Titans have a top-five defense, but with their insistence on wanting to prove Will Levis is a starting passer, no one can trust them to cover the wide spread. This week, they are a 10.5-point dog in Detroit, which seems tempting to take. But when you realize you are betting on Levis making throws and not turning the ball over, it seems too risky.  

The Giants travel to Pittsburgh and are a 6-point dog with Daniel Jones now back as the starter for the G-Men. He got the crap beat out of him last week (so much for repairing the offensive line as the most important aspect of their off-season, according to general manager Joe Schoen). They’ll be without Andrew Thomas at left tackle, which isn’t going to improve when facing Alex Highsmith and TJ Watt. 

The Giants look better on defense in their front, with Brian Burns giving them another rusher. They look worse on offense even with Malik Nabers at receiver. Nabers is a talented player who is able to explode on the field, yet his talent or Brian Daboll calling plays hasn’t improved their ability to make big plays.  Jones averages 6.0 yards per attempt, a half a yard less than his career average.  For all the talk about improving, the Giants haven’t. 

Jerod Mayo calling his team soft isn’t going to make him a popular coach in the locker room, considering the Patriots are playing with the same defensive players that were able to defend the run last year. Under Mayo, the Patriots have gotten worse each week, which is another sign that he might not be ready for the head coaching role and a target to bet against.  

The Browns offense is broken, and with Jameis Winston now the starter, they are prone to make more plays and turn the ball over more often. 

And with Antonio Pierce running the Raiders, are they a good play moving forward now that Gardner Minshew is the full-time starter? Pierce has been an awful game manager, and his team isn’t playing to the level of defense they did last season. And don’t forget all the talking he did this off-season about how the Raiders own the Chiefs. 

My point here is the longer the season, the more exposed bad coaching becomes and the more tempting the points are to lay.  

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