The Biggest Question Facing Each AFC Team:

Perhaps the biggest AFC question of all is: Can the Chiefs three-peat? It hasn’t happened in the modern Super Bowl era. It did happen in the 1960s when the Green Bay Packers won the NFL title in 1965 and went on to win the first two Super Bowls. Can it happen in a salary cap era? Call me doubtful, as even the Chiefs have many questions. 

Here are the biggest questions facing each AFC team. 

 

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Baltimore Ravens

Can Zach Orr replace Mike Macdonald, who left the AFC for Seattle?  Not on Monday through Saturday, but on Sunday?  Teams could run the ball on Ravens, but they never could play from in front. 4.5 yards per attempt, only allowed 6 TDs rushing.  The Ravens outscored opponents by 142 points in the first half, then dominated the third quarter with a +59 differential. 

Buffalo Bills

Stopping Josh Allen In the red zone will be a huge point of emphasis this season. He had 15 of the team’s 22 rushing touchdowns. Allen Is the red-zone runner.  Stefon Diggs had 58 first downs and 107 receptions. How do they replace this production?

Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Boyd had 98 targets, 67 catches with only 6.8 yards per target, and 28 first downs. It should not be hard to replace, but by whom?  The Bengals are a historically bad starting team under Zac Taylor, 7-12 vs. 0-4 in the first two weeks of the last two seasons. Will they change how they prepare for the beginning of the season or continue to be soft in the ramp-up to compete in the AFC? 

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were 3-6 on the road. They forced 14 turnovers on the road and 14 at home. They allowed 282 points on the road and 209 at home. The defense allowed 1943 total yards (806 rushing, 1,137 passing) at home and 3006 (1943 passing, 1063 rushing) on the road. Why? 

Denver Broncos

Denver had the second-best third-down defense in the NFL last year. They were sixth in the NFL in percentage of drives ending in scores. But….they had the worst run-per-attempt defense in football and were 30th in yards allowed. Allowing 350 yards to Miami didn’t help the numbers. They had six games where they allowed over 170 yards rushing and were 3-3 in those games. Will Lutz only attempted five field goals over 50 yards and made three.  With the altitude, the Broncos should be attempting more long kicks. 

Houston Texans

The Texans ranked 31st in penalties called on them last year, 6.7 per game. They were 28th in yards and 14th in first downs allowed by penalty. They need to clean this up, and if they play more man, will the first downs by penalty increase?  Houston was 21st in rushing attempts per game, 31st in rushing first downs per game, and 31st in rushing yards per percentage of their offense.  They fake runs to get their playaction game working more than to create runs. They only had seven games over 100 yards rushing. This is a passing team. 

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson started four games. He won two and lost two. He had 17 bad throws in those games (21% of his throws). He was on target 74.1% of the time, with two balls batted at the line and three thrown away. He rushed for eight first downs, two per game, averaged 6.3 per carry, and had 4 TDs in his 25 carries.  There is huge room for improvement. The Colts ranked 31st in seeing the most rushes per game. They were 24th in yards allowed, 10th in average, but 29th in touchdowns allowed rushing. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville was -6 in the last nine games of the season. They beat Tennessee, Houston and Carolina. They lost to Tennessee, Tampa, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. The Jaguars were outscored 210 to 216 in the second half. Trevor Lawrence has never averaged over 7.1 yards per attempt in his career.  His longest pass play went to Jamal Agnew for 65 yards.  Can they become explosive? 

Kansas City Chiefs

Who will be the starting left tackle for the AFC champs this season: Wanya Morris or rookie Kingsley Suamataia?  The line, combined with the receivers, created problems for the offense. Will they go back to a run offense that was 22nd in attempts last year and 24th in 2022? Who will emerge if Rashee Rice is suspended?  Is Hollywood Brown good enough to win on the outside? 

Las Vegas Raiders

In eight games, the Raiders threw for less than 200 yards passing and were 3-5. One of their wins came when they threw for 48 yards. Who will be the starter at quarterback, and can they throw the ball effectively? The Raiders’ ground game lost 30 yards per game from 2022 to 2023 (121 yards rushing in 2022, 90 in 2023). Can they regain their ground attack? They were 5-1 for the season when they rushed for over 120 yards. 

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers lost seven games by a field goal or less last season, partly due to poor game management and failure to execute at crunch time. They were 46.9% on fourth-down conversions. Can they change this with a new attitude and leadership?  The Chargers were 24th in rushing attempts per game last season, even though they were in a ton of close games. Look for them to be in the top ten of attempts this season. Can they improve on their 27th YPR average?

Miami Dolphins

Can Anthony Weaver and Joe Barry help the defense? Can they make the in-game adjustments needed to handle the game? They allowed 129 points in the fourth quarter, 29th in the NFL. Is this team in shape? Miami is 4-10 in the last seven games of seasons during the Mike McDaniel era. Can they win down the stretch?

New England Patriots

In six games, the Patriots scored less than 10 points. They lost seven games by a touchdown or less. Can they score points this season? They did not score over 82 points in any quarter—under 50 in two, under 70 in one. The defense played 131 more plays than the offense, almost two full games. Can this improve? The Pats missed nine field goals: two inside of the 40, five inside of 50, and two outside of 50. How can they bring Chad Ryland back? The first kick he misses will destroy him and the team. Who is their kicker? 

New York Jets

In 10 games, the Jets allowed 100 yards rushing. They won three of those games, including one in overtime.  The Giants had -9 yards passing and should have won that game. The Jets saw the 30th most rushing attempts in the league per game (30.4).  Opponents were conservative and didn’t want to turn the ball over against them. The Jets were 27th in yards per point allowed and had seven games of not forcing a turnover. They were 2-5 in those games. The Jets created 31 fumbles and recovered 10. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Can Russell Wilson make plays for their offense? His playaction numbers have steadily declined (673 last year, 1036 in 2021). He’s facing pressure more and more (25.5% of the time in 2023). and he never works the middle of the pocket, always looking to move left or right to run away. He’s had a steady decline in yards per attempt: 8.1 in 2018, 8.0 in 2019, 7.5 in 2020, 7.8 in 2021, 7.3 in 2022 and 6.9 in 2023. That means his eye level is way down. The Steelers won 10 games and made playoffs, but they lost to Arizona and New England in the regular season, both teams drafting in the top ten. They won every AFC North game except one—a loss to Cleveland in Week 11.  They only had seven games where they scored above 20 points, and they won all of them. In six games, they scored 13 points or less and lost all of them.  Can they score points this season? As bad as they were on offense, they finished second in the NFL in not committing turnovers.  They were 6-1 last season when they didn’t turn the ball over. They were 30th in drives ending in turnovers—high for a team that only lost seven fumbles and threw nine interceptions. 

Tennessee Titans

Everything the Titans accomplish this season comes down to whether Will Levis is good enough. Last season, the Titans threw for less than 200 yards in 10 games. He threw bad balls on 16.7% of his throws and was sacked 9.9% of the time. Is he good enough? Who is going to be their power back? The Titans have nickel runners in Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Who will be the banger?

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