Michael Lombardi: Why NFL bettors should study the fourth quarter:

I’ve always had a hard time trying to understand when Scott Hansen of NFL Red Zone fame announces at the start of the fourth quarter, “This is where wins become losses and losses become wins.”  No team has officially won or lost in the fourth quarter. In fact, the fourth quarter is when we determine the overall quality of teams. Hansen’s emphasis on the importance of the fourth quarter is correct. If teams cannot get first downs, score points, or keep the ball away from their opponent, they become vulnerable to losing the game.    

Remember, the essence of the game is all about how to approach each quarter. The first quarter is about the assessment of the game plan. It answers whether we practiced what the other team was deploying with their strategy. The second and third quarters are about adjustments to the strategy. The fourth quarter becomes a standalone game. And the best way for us handicappers to evaluate teams lies with their performance in the fourth. 

 

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Good teams can run the ball when the other team is expecting run. Good teams can throw the ball when the other team is expecting pass. The same scenario applies to the defense. If we don’t study the fourth quarter of each game, then you miss the true understanding of the team’s value. 

Let’s take the Jacksonville Jaguars as the perfect example of a team that cannot perform in the clutch. They struggle to make plays when the game matters most—which reflects their preparation, understanding of situational football and their overall execution. Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson must take accountability for these failures, which he kind of didn’t. Instead, he blamed the players for failure to make the plays. After the game, when questioned about the play calling, Pederson said: “As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.” 

In three games this year, Jacksonville had opportunities to win the game in the fourth. In those games, the Jags have scored three points in the fourth quarter. (They have only scored three points all season in the fourth.) They have converted one third down in nine attempts, and they are 1-for-3 on fourth down, a down when Peterson loves to take risks but gains little reward. 

Isn’t the definition of stupidity doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result? Peterson’s love of risking the game on fourth down hasn’t been kind. He has attempted 10 fourth downs and converted just four. Hell, his team ranks 30th on third down, so why does he think he can convert fourth down when he is at 25% on third, converting just 11 out of 44 attempts? 

The Jags as a team are horrible at all game situations, from red zone offense, defense, and they are 24th in EPA as well, as their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, ranks slightly ahead of Bryce Young as the worst quarterback in terms of EPA and expected completion percentage. But hold on, we forgot the defense, which is 29th in EPA, 30TH in yards allowed, 30th in points allowed and 32nd in forcing turnovers.  For Peterson, to claim the players need to do their part isn’t seeing the entire picture. 

The fourth quarter for the Jags is a microcosm of their problems as a team. They can run the ball at times, averaging 5.7 a carry, but when they need a good run, like they did in Houston, it goes for no gain. When they needed to stop the Browns offense which is one of the worst in the NFL, trailing 16-13, they allowed the Browns to run 7 minutes and 44 seconds off the clock, with just two first downs.  Naturally, when the Jags got the ball back at their own one-yard line, they took a sack, ending their chances to win.

Every week, we need to examine the fourth quarters closely, because the overall stats can be misleading. The Chiefs haven’t been great on offense all year, statistically, 14th overall in points and yards, 23 in yards per attempt rushing, and scoring only 42% of their drives. In the Chargers game, they weren’t great for most of the game, but when the game mattered most, they controlled the ball for 9:35 in the fourth, had eight first downs, and scored seven points. The Chiefs know how to win and play their best when they need it most. 

The key examination can only come from looking at the gamebook and breaking down the situations. When you examine the gamebook of the Cowboys and Giants it’s clear the Giants were unable to stop the poor running Cowboys when they needed the ball back with 321 to go in the game, the G-Men could stop the Boys.  Before that drive, when they were down 20-15, with 6:54 to go in the game, the Giants were 0-2 on third down, needed a fourth down conversion to keep the ball, then failed on another to continue the drive. 

Overall, the Giants have lost two games because of fourth-quarter failures and have scored only 15 points in the second half all season. This is telling because once the Giants have declared their game plan and the defense adjusts, they don’t have an alternative plan—which is a signal of a bad team. Even in their one win vs Cleveland, the Giants had only two first downs and were 0-5 on third down.  I understand they were never in jeopardy of not covering. However, they gave the Browns a big-time chance to win the game. The Browns weren’t good enough to take advantage. 

My advice moving forward: Before you lay or take points, study the recent fourth-quarter success of the team you’re backing. If they can close or catch up, you will feel better about your chances.

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