Monday Night Football best bets: Chargers vs. Colts

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Monday Night Football best bets: Chargers vs. Colts
Deep Dive: The VSiN staff closes out NFL Week 16 with its best bets for Monday night’s Chargers vs. Colts game.

The Indianapolis Colts will try to erase last week’s memory of surrendering a 33-point halftime lead at home to the Minnesota Vikings, the largest comeback in NFL history. Tonight, Jeff Saturday’s team takes centerstage on Monday Night Football as they host the 8-6 Los Angeles Chargers, winner of three out of their last four games. See what our analysts had to say about this matchup.

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Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Sunday night.

Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 44.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Dave Tuley: The last time we saw the Colts, they were blowing a 33-0 lead to the Vikings (the biggest comeback in NFL history), but I maintain you have to have some talent to build a 33-0 lead.

Even though the Colts have lost four straight games, don’t forget that it takes talent to build up a 33-0 lead versus the Vikings, even if they blew it. Plus, the Colts still covered as 3.5-point underdogs in the historic 39-36 OT loss (condolences to those who had them on any kind of money line). In addition, they’re 3-2 ATS under interim coach Jeff Saturday with an upset of the Raiders and a cover in their 17-16 loss to the Eagles. The Colts are turning to supersub Nick Foles–and I have no problem with that. 

This is just as much of a play against the Chargers. I don’t know who said it first—me or my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans—but for years we’ve both been saying that the basic strategy in their games is to bet them as underdogs and fade them when favored. Case in point: They failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 25-24 Week 12 win at the Cardinals, and they only pushed as 3-point faves in their 17-14 win vs. the slumping Titans in Week 15. 

We gave this out earlier in the week at Colts +5, but it’s been steadily bet down. We still think it’s playable at anything more than a field goal.

Pick: Colts +3.5