The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 21-4 in the last 25 games between Houston and Boston (including 10-2 in the last 12)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BOS (o/u at 222.5)

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 73-28 SU and 63-37-1 ATS (63%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at TOR) 

* ATLANTA is 46-24 Over the total since ’22 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIN (o/u at 217.5) 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 271-216 SU but 210-264-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 37-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. NOP), CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs. LAL), MINNESOTA (-10 v.s ATL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, LA LAKERS, ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, DENVER, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, BOSTON, DENVER, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, ORLANDO, LA CLIPPERS 

Here are some more specific money line angles: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, DALLAS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU, but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.

System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO ML 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-CHI, WSH-DAL, LAC-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-CLE, MIL-UTA
UNDER – MEM-NYK, NOP-TOR, WSH-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-MIA, ATL-MIN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-CHI, LAC-PHX

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Under the total was 114-88-1 (56.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/27: UNDER the total in CHARLOTTE-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-CHA (o/u at 222) 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-80 SU and 44-66-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/27: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. LA Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs. LAL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 42-42 SU and 30-53-1 ATS skid in the last 84 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/27: Fade MILWAUKEE at Utah
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-9 at UTA) 

* ATLANTA is 46-24 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
1/27: Over the total in ATLANTA-MINNESOTA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIN (o/u at 217.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting tred systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 141-49 SU and 114-75-1 ATS (60.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs HOU)

*Also, check NEW YORK vs Memphis (-3.5 currently)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 103-69 SU and 104-65-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 73-28 SU and 63-37-1 ATS (63%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 215-38 SU but just 120-128-5 ATS (48.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (-11 at BKN), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. ATL), DALLAS (-12.5 vs. WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 95-80 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 183-155 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 251-193 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-BKN (o/u at 224), ATL-MIN (o/u at 217.5), WSH-DAL (o/u at 230.5)
UNDER – DET-CLE (o/u at 235)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 221-126 SU but 156-184-7 ATS (45.9%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs MEM) 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 141-85 SU but 101-121-4 ATS (45.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 86-107 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. DET), SACRAMENTO (-11 at BKN) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 117-120 SU but 123-99-5 ATS (55.4%), including 88-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. DET), SACRAMENTO (-11 at BKN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 271-216 SU but 210-264-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 37-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. NOP), CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs. LAL), MINNESOTA (-10 v.s ATL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 281-244 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MIA (o/u at 208), HOU-BOS (o/u at 222.5) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 294-265 SU but 252-292-13 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs. LAL), BOSTON (-6.5 vs. HOU) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 176-67 SU and 130-110-3 ATS (54.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at TOR), DALLAS (-12.5 vs. WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 70-79 SU but 82-65-3 ATS (55.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+10 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 222-272-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-126 SU and 64-84-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+12.5 at DAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). PHOENIX +1.5 (+1.7)
CHICAGO +9 (+1.7)
3. WASHINGTON +12.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -10 (+4.2)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+1.1)
3. SACRAMENTO -11 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+4.5)
2. TORONTO +1.5 (+4.4)
3. MIAMI +1 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -12.5 (+2.3)
2(tie). CLEVELAND -10.5 (+2.1)
MILWAUKEE -9 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-MIN OVER 217.5 (+1.1)
2. HOU-BOS OVER 222.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-CHA UNDER 222 (-5.3)
2. ORL-MIA UNDER 208 (-1.7)
3. LAC-PHX UNDER 224.5 (-1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). WASHINGTON +12.5 (+2.3)
PHOENIX +1.5 (+2.3)
3. TORONTO +1.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -10 (+4.7)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+2.2)
3. SACRAMENTO -11 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-NYK OVER 240.5 (+1.4)
2(tie). HOU-BOS OVER 222.5 (+1.1)
ATL-MIN OVER 217.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-CHA UNDER 222 (-4.7)
2. LAC-PHX UNDER 224.5 (-2.8)
3. ORL-MIA UNDER 208 (-2.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(537) DETROIT at (538) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the DET-CLE divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(539) LA LAKERS at (540) CHARLOTTE
* LA LAKERS are 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 visits to Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS 

(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the SAC-BKN series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(545) MEMPHIS at (546) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the MEM-NYK series
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

* Over the total is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the MEM-NYK series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(549) HOUSTON at (550) BOSTON
* Under the total is 21-4 in the last 25 games between HOU and BOS (including 10-2 in the last 12)
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(551) DENVER at (552) CHICAGO
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the DEN-CHI non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(553) ATLANTA at (554) MINNESOTA
* ATLANTA is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games versus Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS 

(555) WASHINGTON at (556) DALLAS
* WASHINGTON has covered five straight ATS in visits to Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(559) LA CLIPPERS at (560) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the LAC-PHX divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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