New NFL Betting Systems for the 2026 Season:
I led off my NFL Best Bets column this week by raving about how strong the NFL betting systems I rely on for validating my selections have been lately. Heading into Monday night’s Atlanta-New Orleans matchup, I’m sporting a 24-12-2 ATS record, my best start in many years. For Week 4 alone, I was 6-2-1 ATS prior to the MNF contest, and I can share with you that several of the plays I made for Week 4 were based on the systems you are about to read, as I had access to these near the end of last week and chose to “test run” them before putting them into circulation. I’d say the weekend was a success, so here we go.
Being an analytics guy, I love digging through databases I have organized to find foundational betting systems. I love it even more when they help me convert betting opportunities into victories. This past week, I asked VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen to join me in scouring our recent NFL data to find new systematic data to help freshen up our weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports. He delivered big time, and I’m happy to say that we will be adding all of these nuggets to the reports starting this week. Of course, with the systems in our reports, we qualify the teams for you, so you’ll never have to do the digging yourself; just pick the ones you feel most confident in.
There are many reasons why one bettor can like a particular system more than another. And I’ll say this for those of you who still tend to confuse ‘TRENDS” with “SYSTEMS,” as I value the latter a whole lot more. If you ask me, I consider the league-wide angles like you’ll see below as systems, because they don’t apply to a particular team’s performance tendencies. Rather, they apply to the entire league, and specific teams at that point in time happen to fall into the qualifying criteria. To me, this is much more valuable, as with team roster, coaching, and momentum changes from one year to the next, team tendencies can change on a dime. However, league-wide angles that teams of certain levels fall into each year generally do not. For example, a losing team that doesn’t score many points might be a different franchise now than it was a year ago, but that team’s motivation level, its mindset, and its predicted performance going forward tend to follow a specific pattern.
That said, read through each angle and decide for yourself which ones might serve you best going forward. You’ll see that a lot of them have a “going against the grain” feel to them, which, to me, is vital to NFL betting success, as the most obvious trends and teams on any given week tend to lose. Some bettors learned that the hard way this weekend, with obvious but perhaps undeserving favorites like Buffalo, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Detroit losing outright.
Look for these systems and all the others you’ve come to expect from the VSiN Analytics Report when it is released on Wednesday.
Systems Based Upon Team Strength/Line Scenario
– In battles of undefeated NFL teams, home underdogs/pick are 14-14 SU and 20-8 ATS (71.4%) since 2015
– NFL teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015 (Also 82-53 Over the total) and 35-10-2 ATS (77.7%)
– NFL road/neutral teams scoring more than 31 PPG are just 36-48 SU and 30-53 ATS (36.1%) since 2020
– NFL teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 59-60 SU and 45-71-3 ATS (38.8%) since 2016
– NFL teams that struggle to run the ball and are averaging <60 RYPG are 17-34 SU and 15-36 ATS (29.4%) at home since 2015
– NFL road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 151-101 SU and 143-105-4 ATS (57.7%) since 2015
– Defensively dominant NFL road teams allowing less than 15 PPG have gone just 49-66-1 SU and 42-74 ATS (36.2%) since 2015
– NFL teams playing as underdogs despite a +10 PPG point differential have gone just 30-51 SU and 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016
– NFL teams with +10 PPG point differentials are 70-38 SU but 41-64-3 ATS (39%) versus unfamiliar non-conference opponents in their last 118 tries
– Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether or not really bad NFL teams have a chance to compete, as those with -10 PPG differentials or worse are 115-121 SU but 141-91-4 ATS (60.8%) so long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 235 games
– A great NFL offense (>=27 PPG) is a solid bet against a great defense (<=19 PPG) when that great offense is the underdog, 75-56 ATS (57.3%) since 2015
– In NFL games matching bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG scored) against bad defensive teams (>=27 PPG allowed), it isn’t wise to lay points with the bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015
– In NFL games matching poor offenses (<=19 PPG) against great defenses (<=19 PPG), the poor offensive teams actually fare well when the point spread suggests they should, as they are 55-32 SU and 52-31-4 ATS (62.7%) when either favored or playing as underdogs of +3 or fewer
– Lower-totaled (o/u <= 45) NFL games involving two teams who both have poor defenses (>= 26 PPG Allowed) have surprisingly had these games go Under at a 41-18 (69.5%) rate since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL road favorites facing a great run defense (<= 100 RYPG Allowed) have not been good bets in lower-totaled games (o/u <= 47), going just 80-73 SU but 59-89-5 ATS (39.9%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– In NFL games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-30 SU and 44-20-1 ATS (68.8%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL Teams having a 10% win percentage or higher than their opponent but are playing as home underdogs are right to be priced this way, as they are 15-51 SU and 18-46-2 ATS (28.1%) since the start of the 2017 season.
– Having a minimum four games under their belt for the season, NFL favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 32-41-1 SU and 24-48-2 ATS (33.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
– In the later months of the regular season (November-January), higher-scoring (>= 26 PPG) NFL road underdogs facing a solid defense (<= 20.5 PAPG) have gone 25-25 SU but 36-13-1 ATS (73.5%) since 2018.
Systems Based Upon Extreme Stats Generated Last Game
– NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are horrible as large underdogs (+7 or more) in the next contest, going 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) in their last 15 tries.
– NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are also bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 4-8 SU and 0-11-1 ATS (0%) in their last 12 tries.
– NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are very good as non-divisional conference favorites in the next contest, going 30-6 SU and 26-8-2 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2016 season.
– NFL teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-45 SU and 34-61 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-18 SU but 9-29 ATS (23.7%) in divisional play in that same time frame).
– NFL teams that just lost a heartbreaker (<= 3 points) to a divisional rival and are now playing in a less competitive game (>= +7 underdog or <= -7 favorite) have had totals go Over at a 34-15 (69.4%) rate since the start of the 2017 season.
– NFL teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been phenomenal as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 36-66 SU but 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
– NFL teams coming off a blowout loss (>= 20 points) have been bad bets as non-conference underdogs in the next contest, going 18-52-1 SU and 29-41-1 ATS (41.4%) since the start of the 2019 season.
– NFL Teams coming off a double-digit victory over a divisional rival have followed up that big win with a 32-11 SU and 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) record as a non-conference home favorite in the next contest since 2015.
– NFL teams coming off an outright win as a large underdog (+7 or more) and are favored in their next game have had totals go Under at a 20-9 (69%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
Systems Based Upon Winning or Losing Streaks
– NFL teams that have won their last four games outright have gone 65-13 SU and 49-29 ATS (62.8%) ATS as non-divisional conference home favorites of -3 or more since 2015.
– NFL road teams that have lost two straight SU but have pushed or won ATS in both have gone 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) as big underdogs (+7 or more) in their last 14 tries.
– Lower-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 12-44-1 SU and 13-41-3 ATS (24.1%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL teams that have won their last three ATS have been bad bets as road favorites of -3 or more versus poor offenses (PPG <= 19) in the next contest, going 15-14 SU but 6-20-3 ATS (23.1%) in their last 29 tries.
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TONY GEORGE continues to dismantle the Sportsbook in MLB.
Tony finished the 2026 MLB Regular Season +120 Units/+$8060 on a low-volume, strategy-designed approach.
His Top Picks in MLB are 24-12 YTD.
But Tony was not done yet. He has carried that momentum over into the Playoffs as well:
- 6-1 in MLB Playoffs to date (10/5)
- +$1450 in the last 7 Days
- 1 Top Pick to date in Playoffs Cashed
See them here.
If you are looking for winning MLB picks from a trusted Handicapper with a track record in 2026 that is simply hard to find in the marketplace, then look for Tony’s MLB Playoff Picks at Docs Sports
