NFL 2024 Betting Guide: AFC Preview:

The 2024 NFL season is finally here, and VSiN will prepare you daily for the entire season. Before Week 1’s action kicks off, here’s our exclusive preview of the AFC.

 

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Buffalo Bills

Odds to win Super Bowl: 16-1
Odds to win AFC: +800
Odds to win AFC East: +195

A rebuilt receiver corps takes up most of the spotlight in Buffalo, where QB Josh Allen will try to find some chemistry with Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mack Hollins. TE Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox join Khalil Shakir as the holdovers and they could be the go-to guys, but somebody has to create more explosive plays.

Matt Milano’s injury could be another setback for a defense that seems to have had no shortage of them in recent years, but at least it happened in the preseason and they can adjust easier as opposed to a midseason malady. Also, the Bills will roll with new DC Bobby Babich, who has been a longtime position coach. We didn’t see much of the No. 1s in preseason, but the better players were instrumental in holding the Steelers to nine points. The Panthers game was film to burn and never speak of again..

What makes this season interesting for the Bills is that they have gotten very little publicity and attention, yet they’re co-favorites with the Jets to win the AFC East and have lower Super Bowl odds. The Jets and Dolphins, meanwhile, have been talked about a lot.

Player to Watch: WR Keon Coleman
I actually touted Coleman for Offensive Rookie of the Year in our main NFL Betting Guide back in June. Allen developed more of a rapport with Shakir late in the year and will always utilize his two tight ends, but Coleman, who had 18 touchdowns over his final two years in college, has the potential to be more of a home run hitter with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis elsewhere. Coleman didn’t find his footing in the preseason, but the hope is that he will with Allen when the games matter.

New York Jets

Odds to win Super Bowl: 19-1
Odds to win AFC: 10-1
Odds to win AFC East: +165

The most interesting developments of the preseason for the Jets did not happen in a game. Some heated conversations between Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson were blown out of proportion back in late July and then Haason Reddick’s trade request and holdout dominated the headlines.

Reddick’s holdout continues, at least at time of print and it seems like it will at least carry over into the month of September. Reddick wants a new contract. The Jets want him to play on his existing one. He would certainly help the defense to be out there, but many believe that the Jets still have one of the league’s dominant units without him. It would still help to have a guy with more than 50 sacks in the last four seasons out there.

But, when push comes to shove, New York reaching expectations comes down to the player wearing No. 8. Rodgers had one pass attempt before tearing his Achilles last season and did not play at all in the preseason. Not that he was ever going to, but until fans, pundits, bettors, and reporters see him in game conditions, the questions will linger. The offensive line is the primary area of concern as the season draws near, which is not ideal with a 40-year-old QB.

Player to Watch: WR Malachi Corley
The preseason was an up-and-down affair for Corley, who had seven catches on 10 targets, but also had some rookie blunders, including a holding flag. All he did in college was catch passes, leaving Western Kentucky with 259 grabs for more than 3,000 yards. We know that Rodgers loves tight ends, so Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, and Zack Kuntz are all on the radar for prop bettors and fantasy enthusiasts, but Corley could become a star in short order if he gets vintage Rodgers.

Miami Dolphins

Odds to win Super Bowl: 22-1
Odds to win AFC: 11-1
Odds to win AFC East: +205

There wasn’t a whole lot to find out about the Dolphins in the preseason. After all, we can’t find out if they can beat playoff teams because (a) there aren’t any yet and (b) nobody is playing their starters. That remains the concern for Miami, who lost twice to Buffalo, twice to Kansas City, the Eagles, Titans, and Ravens last year. Huge yards per play and points differentials were a little misleading because of how they handled their affairs against lesser foes.

Tua Tagovailoa got his work in by going 5-for-5 for 51 yards and a TD against the Commanders and that was it for him. The biggest story from Dolphins camp was that Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Odell Beckham Jr. were all dealing with varying injuries.

Because of the limited competition in the preseason, we didn’t really get to see Anthony Weaver’s defense at work, as he took over for former DC Vic Fangio. That being said, it was a good workout for Weaver’s pass defense, which faced 115 pass attempts in three games. For a group that gave up 27 passing TDs last season, only allowing two in the preseason feels like a win, even if you have to put an asterisk next to it.

Player to Watch: RB De’Von Achane
Fantasy players and player prop wagerers are definitely interested in the backfield for the Dolphins. Raheem Mostert remains the lead back, but Achane ripped off 7.8 yards per carry last season and head coach Mike McDaniel mentioned that it was a priority to find more ways to get him the ball. That said, not only is Mostert there, but the Dolphins traded up to get Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright in the draft. We know that the Dolphins will have a high-octane offense, but the running back position is really deep and that makes it tough for bettors and drafters.

New England Patriots

Odds to win Super Bowl: 250-1
Odds to win AFC: 120-1
Odds to win AFC East: 25-1

The Patriots wound up being the last AFC team to finish up the preseason, drawing the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. But, it seems fitting because first-year head coach Jerod Mayo had a lingering question at the most important position on the field. As it turns out, the question still wasn’t answered, as Drake Maye outshined Jacoby Brissett, but Mayo’s postgame comments hinted towards Brissett being the Week 1 guy.

With left guard Cole Strange already out, right guard Sidy Sow left the final preseason game injured, so the Patriots head into the season with some offensive line injuries, which is never a good thing. All in all, the defense played really well during the preseason. That’s hardly a surprise with Mayo at the helm and with the culture established by Bill Belichick, but all eyes were on the offense and all eyes will be on the offense as the season rolls along.

It will be fascinating to see how the offense comes together under Alex Van Pelt. He hasn’t called plays since he was the OC in Buffalo back in 2009, as he had the OC title in Cleveland, but Kevin Stefanski has always been the one in the QB’s ear.

Player to Watch: WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Obviously the QB position is worth watching, but regardless of who runs the offense, somebody will have to catch the ball. This is a team that will trail a lot, both because of a lack of talent, but also a brutal schedule for the first 11 weeks. Polk finished the preseason with seven catches on nine targets for 53 yards. He was a second-round pick this year and could take some of the targets away from last year’s sixth-round pick DeMario Douglas. Polk should get every opportunity to put up numbers on a bad team desperate for a playmaker.

Baltimore Ravens

Odds to win Super Bowl: 10-1
Odds to win AFC: +550
Odds to win AFC North: +145

The emphasis on Lamar Jackson’s health is more important than ever for the Ravens, who have Josh Johnson, Devin Leary, and Emory Jones in reserve. Jackson started 16 games last season for the first time in his career after starting 12 each of the previous two seasons. On the whole, the Ravens made it through the preseason healthy, including Jackson, who was only slowed by an illness early in camp.

This is basically last year’s team on both sides of the ball, so Baltimore has the chance to hit the ground running while others are trying to find their proverbial sea legs. The +12 turnover margin may regress a bit, especially with Geno Stone and his seven interceptions with division rival Cincinnati. But, no news was good news otherwise for Baltimore throughout the month of August.

What we haven’t seen yet is how 30-year-old running back Derrick Henry fits into Todd Monken’s offense, but a ball control approach will probably help first-year DC Zach Orr, who takes over for Mike Macdonald at the age of 32. With limited odds movement, the Ravens are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and are nearly in lockstep with the Bengals for the AFC North crown.

Player to Watch: WR Rashod Bateman
The presence of Henry certainly allows the Ravens to rely on the run, but somebody has to play Robin to Zay Flowers’ Batman. Flowers had 108 targets, 44 more than anybody else, and 77 catches, more than double any other wide receiver. Obviously Mark Andrews missed time and will be a popular option for Jackson, but nobody really stepped up in his absence. Bateman only had 32 catches over 16 games and the preservation of Lamar could be contingent on finding another pass-catcher.

Cincinnati Bengals

Odds to win Super Bowl: 13-1
Odds to win AFC: +700
Odds to win AFC North: +145

With Myles Murphy out and Sam Hubbard ailing, the Bengals are a little bit light on pass rushers as the season gets underway. But, that pales in comparison to what they dealt with in the preseason last year with Joe Burrow’s calf injury and everything that came along with it. Now that backup QB Jake Browning is down for a while, Burrow’s status means the world to the Bengals and he got through the preseason unscathed.

Nobody seems concerned about the Ja’Marr Chase contract dispute and the Bengals still have Tee Higgins, so the 1-2 punch is set. The defense, outside of the aforementioned EDGE injuries, looks very similar to last season’s, just with Geno Stone in the mix after a huge season for the rival Ravens. All in all, this has been one of the best preseasons for the Bengals in the Burrow era.

Because he isn’t banged up, I would anticipate that the Bengals take some more love in the futures markets as Week 1 approaches. As it is, they are the favorites to win the deep and talented AFC North and are also among the shorter prices to win the Super Bowl.

Player to Watch: RB Zack Moss
For the first time since 2016, Joe Mixon is not on the roster. Mixon had four 1,000-yard seasons with Cincy, but only had more than 4.1 yards per carry once, so it was more about volume and less about big plays. Moss has had over 4.1 yards per carry in four of his five seasons, though he’s had problems staying on the field with a total of 53 games played. The Bengals have traded Mixon’s durability for a bit more upside and hopefully some shorter third downs to convert.

Cleveland Browns

Odds to win Super Bowl: 40-1
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Odds to win AFC North: +550

The Browns didn’t play Deshaun Watson in a preseason game and the practice reports were quite mixed. The QB room is deep with Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Tyler Huntley, but the plan is still to give Watson the Week 1 start, much to the chagrin of many fans and those who watched camp. The opener against the Cowboys would be Watson’s first game action in 302 days.

Reserve lineman Luke Wypler went down with an injury, but the team moved quickly to reunite with Nick Harris, who got ample playing time last season with injuries to Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, as the offensive line was in a state of flux. Michigan draftee Zak Zinter also shined in his preseason reps and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him as a factor following his own major injury against Ohio State.

Denzel Ward dealt with another concussion and injuries feel like the only thing that could slow down Jim Schwartz’s defense. Myles Garrett and No. 1s didn’t get many reps, so the Browns avoided major injury and are ready to go with mostly unchanged futures odds heading into the season with a win total of 8.5 and Over juice.

Player to Watch: WR Jerry Jeudy
The Browns are likely to use a lot of 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) with the acquisition of Jeudy to put with Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper. Moore had 104 targets last season, but only 59 catches, as the Browns had very mediocre QB play. I’m not sure it gets any better this season, but there are now three mouths to feed plus Njoku. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has to love the riches he has at wideout, but getting them the ball is a big question and the three-year commitment to Jeudy must mean they expect him to be a big factor.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Odds to win Super Bowl: 50-1
Odds to win AFC: 30-1
Odds to win AFC North: +800

We all thought that the Steelers had two quarterbacks, but it turns out that they might not have any. Well, by definition, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields both play the position, but they did not play it well in the preseason. Russ was 10-of-12 for 73 yards and Fields was 19-of-27 for 199 yards, but neither guy threw a touchdown pass and Fields showed the indecisiveness and inability to take care of the football that held him back in Chicago.

The completion percentages are great, but there was very little in terms of downfield passing. Tomlin was very complimentary of Wilson after the preseason finale against the Lions and it seems as though he’ll get the first crack at leading Arthur Smith’s offense. Cordarrelle Patterson’s 31-yard TD run against Detroit matched the total number of rushing yards for Najee Harris on nine preseason totes. Jaylen Warren missed the game with a hamstring injury.

It is an understatement to say that the offense is a work in progress. The defense should be fine, as it usually is under Tomlin. The depth is really solid on that side of the ball as well. The well-documented gauntlet after the bye week for the Steelers still looms large in terms of their preseason odds with heavy vig on Under 8.5.

Player to Watch: WR Roman Wilson
Whether it’s Wilson or Fields, George Pickens will get his targets and yardage. But, who is the WR2? Newcomer Van Jefferson has only had one big season. Calvin Austin and Quez Watkins have a chance with increased opportunity. The downside for Wilson is that he’s missed a lot of important reps due to a sprained ankle that kept him out of all the preseason games and a lot of the practices. But, the third-rounder out of Michigan seems to have the highest ceiling aside from Pickens and should get a lot of looks in 11 personnel.

Houston Texans

Odds to win Super Bowl: 16-1
Odds to win AFC: +850
Odds to win AFC South: +105

Two years ago, the Texans started Davis Mills at QB in the season opener against the Colts. Rex Burkhead was the leading rusher with 40 yards on 14 carries. Brandin Cooks had seven receptions for 82 yards. Burkhead was second with five catches and Chris Moore was third with three.

It is truly astonishing to look at how much things have changed for Houston and they had virtually no position battles in the preseason because the top guys like CJ Stroud, Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and others were all set in stone. Stroud had 14 pass attempts in the preseason as the entire goal was to stay healthy and the lone question mark, the offensive line, made it easy to keep him on the sidelines.

Mills didn’t even play the final two preseason games, as the Texans had the benefit of playing four with the Hall of Fame Game. Arguably the most interesting thing about the Texans is how other teams were circling like sharks around cut-down day to see which backs and receivers Houston made available.

Nothing has really changed in terms of their futures/division odds, although a quiet, kind-of-boring camp got people talking themselves into the Colts and Jaguars.

Player to Watch: RB Cam Akers
Mixon has a solid set of hands, but he’s not a big yards-per-carry guy, which may open up some opportunities for Akers. He shined in the preseason and got a lot of touches, as he had 32 carries plus receptions, including 10 on 24 snaps in the finale against the Rams. Akers has torn both Achilles over the last three seasons, but he looked like a real threat with the ball in his hands and the Texans have a strong affinity for dynamic players. Just look at how they put together their wide receiver corps.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Odds to win Super Bowl: 50-1
Odds to win AFC: 221-1
Odds to win AFC South: +250

Preseason wins and losses may not mean a whole lot, but no team in the AFC had a better preseason than the Jaguars. They went 3-0 with a +57 point differential and Trevor Lawrence looked outstanding in his limited action. He was 11-of-14 with 134 yards and three touchdowns, including a two-touchdown effort in the final tune-up against the Falcons.

Lawrence and TE Evan Engram kept up their impeccable chemistry from last season and first-round pick WR Brian Thomas Jr. is a weapon whether he’s targeted or not. Given that the Jags got outgained last season and posted just a 22/14 TD/INT ratio, a bounce back season from Lawrence with some new and old faces would go a long way in a tough division, where the Jags are the second betting choice and an underdog to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville’s 30 turnovers were among the most in the NFL and obscured how many takeaways the defense had with 28. New DC Ryan Nielsen only got one takeaway from his unit in the exhibition games, but they only allowed four red-zone trips. Again, it was the preseason, but the Jags dominated the time of possession in their final two games, which would certainly make life easier for Nielsen’s crew.

Player to Watch: Travis Etienne Jr.
After ripping off 5.1 yards per carry during his rookie year, Etienne only had 3.8 yards per pop last season. He actually got votes in the Offensive Player of the Year, which was kind of crazy given that he only had 4.6 yards per touch and one receiving TD on 58 targets. He doesn’t seem to be getting much pressure from Tank Bigsby or D’Ernest Johnson in the quest for snaps, but maybe he should. He only had two 100-yard games on the ground last season and the lack of balance led to a lot of Lawrence turnovers. He had 11 carries for 49 yards and two catches for 12 yards in the preseason.

Indianapolis Colts

Odds to win Super Bowl: 75-1
Odds to win AFC: 35-1
Odds to win AFC South: +340

Anthony Richardson’s preseason ended with 10 completions on 18 attempts for 111 yards with a touchdown and a pick. He also had two carries for four yards, as he got the memo about protecting his body. Joe Flacco is the safety net behind Richardson this year, although Jason Bean sure did his part to convince the coaching staff to keep him around.

But, as we know, the success for the Colts comes down to Richardson, who only made it through four games last season. This is a good roster around him and a team that was right in the playoff mix under first-year head coach Shane Steichen. You have to take the good with the bad with Richardson and the potential is there for more good than bad.

That being said, the Texans left the preseason healthy and the Jaguars actually looked really impressive in their exhibition games, leaving the Colts as the third choice in the AFC South and an underdog in the Yes/No playoff market. The kid gloves on Richardson until he played five drives against the Bengals made sense, but accuracy problems continued to follow him around in camp.

Player to Watch: WR Adonai Mitchell
Rookies have to seize opportunities in the preseason and Mitchell stepped up to the challenge. While he only had three catches on six targets and accumulated just 29 yards, he was on the field with Richardson and got a lot of snaps with Josh Downs on the sidelines. It seems likely that he’ll get a lot of looks in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) even after Downs comes back. He didn’t see the field much at Georgia, but had 55 catches and 845 yards at Texas in his junior year, so there will be some growing pains, but Richardson’s big arm makes him a player to watch in prop markets.

Tennessee Titans

Odds to win Super Bowl: 150-1
Odds to win AFC: 80-1
Odds to win AFC South: 10-1

You never want to read too much into the preseason, but I can’t be alone in thinking that the Titans might be better than a lot of people believe. Three close wins over the 49ers, Seahawks, and Saints can’t be a bad thing, but the more important observations are that Will Levis actually looked pretty darn good and there is a lot of talent at the skill positions.

Tony Pollard is a dual-threat back and spark plug Tyjae Spears can do a bit of everything. Head coach Brian Callahan brought in his dad, Bill, to oversee the offensive line and Titans QBs not named Malik Willis were sacked once for three yards. The Titans accepted that Willis was a sunk cost and traded him to the Packers. Levis and Mason Rudolph played quite well in the preseason and now the QB room is set.

The yards per carry numbers weren’t overly impressive, but the Titans had at least 117 rushing yards in every game and the signal callers should improve under the Callahans as the year goes along. By no means do I believe that this is a team that will fly past their season win total (6.5) enough to be a postseason factor, but they might be an ATS darling this year.

Player to Watch: WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had 75 catches for 1,057 yards last season. He had more than twice as many yards as the next guy (TE Chigoziem Okonkwo). This season, Hopkins will line up alongside proven commodities in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Okonkwo is back in the mix as well. The addition of standout center Lloyd Cushenberry III and seventh overall pick JC Latham at left tackle provide more protection and Hopkins now has “lineup protection” as the “cleanup hitter” to borrow a baseball concept. We’ll see how quickly D-Hop can get back from the knee injury, but he may be sitting on a huge season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Odds to win Super Bowl: +500
Odds to win AFC: +300
Odds to win AFC West: -260

Most of the news was good for the Chiefs in the preseason. The Super Bowl LIX favorite and biggest division chalk on the board just wanted to get through healthy. Patrick Mahomes mentioned that the loss of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was a bummer in practice, but he’ll be back in September and it doesn’t hurt to have Xavier Worthy ready to contribute.

The biggest winner of the KC preseason was Creed Humphrey, who got paid a handsome rate for snapping the ball to Mahomes and directing traffic on the offensive line. Joe Thuney was hurt in camp from an injury suffered in last year’s postseason, but isn’t expected to miss regular season time, so it will be “all systems go” for the opener against the Ravens in the NFL Kickoff Game.

The most important position battle was a success, as second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia out of BYU looked the part of a starting left tackle in the NFL. The offensive line depth is a tad concerning for the Chiefs, so they’ll need the No. 1s to stay healthy there. Injuries are the only thing standing between the Chiefs and another division title.

Player to Watch: WR Rashee Rice
This could’ve gone a number of ways, with Worthy, Carson Steele, Travis Kelce, who did show some signs of age in the regular season, or even incumbent RB Isiah Pacheco, but Rice is a really important piece for this team. It was a rough offseason for the Chiefs, with Rice front and center thanks to his decision-making. He had 102 targets and 79 catches as a rookie. It is entirely possible that Worthy and Brown take away some looks from Rice, but KC is also trying to commit to more downfield options with those two speedsters. Rice is a speedster in his own right, but he could morph into a possession role here with volume being the chief goal.

Los Angeles Chargers

Odds to win Super Bowl: 45-1
Odds to win AFC: 22-1
Odds to win AFC West: +350

Some teams gave us a good frame of reference in the preseason. Some teams did not. The Chargers were one of those teams. Justin Herbert didn’t play at all due to plantar fasciitis and Easton Stick, Luis Perez, and Max Duggan did not play well at all. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins registered zero combined carries, leaving it all for Kimani Vidal and Jaret Patterson. Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark Jr. combined for four targets.

So, the Chargers are something of an unknown heading into Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh, who clearly left Michigan at the right time with sanctions and notices arriving in Ann Arbor at a rapid rate. Harbaugh and the Chargers have downplayed Herbert’s foot ailment and this is a team with a top-notch offensive line, especially at the tackle position, that seems ready to rely more on the run than past iterations.

Bettors have been bullish on the Bolts since the Harbaugh hiring and there is still ample Over vig on 8.5 for the season win total. They’re still a slight underdog to make the playoffs (+110), but Herbert’s hobbles haven’t really thrown too much cold water on the team’s chances. In fact, with a real chance at starting 3-0 (Raiders, @ Panthers, @ Steelers), the hype train may pick up speed early.

Player to Watch: QB Justin Herbert
Herbert only played 13 games last season, leading to his first year outside of the top five in pass attempts. He was second in both 2021 and 2022. He was fourth in 2020 during the COVID season. In his four seasons, the Chargers have been 27th, 30th, 16th, and 30th in yards per carry. While Herbert is unlikely to put up the volume he has throughout his career, it is possible his efficiency will improve with a more balanced offense. Plantar fasciitis can be a long-term thing, so it will have to be monitored, but Herbert has never had a balanced offense at any point in his career and the notion that he might has to carry some weight with this team’s expectations.

Las Vegas Raiders

Odds to win Super Bowl: 100-1
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Odds to win AFC West: 10-1

The QB competition in Las Vegas was not a ratings bonanza, but it does seem as though the Raiders made a decision that raises the floor of the team. Gardner Minshew beat out Aidan O’Connell for the gig for first-year, full-time head coach Antonio Pierce, who had a rough preseason. Pierce probably made the right call with Minshew, but there were some game management things that evaded the sideline boss and the hard-nosed, physical team we saw late last year was rarely on display.

The Raiders only had 10 rushing first downs in the preseason, as the loss of Josh Jacobs seems pretty evident already. It is easy for the offense to look lackluster without its best player, which was the case for the Silver & Black with Davante Adams out with the birth of his child and then in the interest of protecting his health.

Adams doesn’t really need time to get up to speed with new OC Luke Getsy’s playbook because he was a prominent feature in that very thing for the Packers. That being said, with a defense full of holes and an offense that may struggle to find balance, all the missed time could certainly be problematic. The Raiders threw 94 times against 32 rushing attempts over the final two preseason games. A team with a win total of 6.5 should probably be working on throwing more than running, with or without a QB competition.

Player to Watch: RB Alexander Mattison
It appears to be Zamir White’s backfield for now, but if the run-pass distribution of Getsy’s offense is going to look something like it did in the preseason, Mattison is the more accomplished receiver. White played at least 57% of the snap share in each of the Raiders’ last four games, including three over 70% and had 13 of his 19 targets. He only had 17 catches over three seasons at Georgia. White is the higher-upside runner and Mattison is the higher-upside pass catcher. With the Raiders likely to trail a good amount, it will be interesting to see the distribution of snaps.

Denver Broncos

Odds to win Super Bowl: 300-1
Odds to win AFC: 120-1
Odds to win AFC West: 22-1

Sean Payton definitely had a plan in mind when he drafted Bo Nix and we’re going to see it right away with the 12th overall pick named as the starting quarterback. Instantly, the Broncos appear to have a higher ceiling and Nix’s preseason efficiency has been highly regarded, but we should take a deeper look.

Remember that Nix played at Oregon in an offense where the ball came out quick and a lot of passes were within a few yards of the line of scrimmage. The Broncos have run a similar set of plays for Nix in the preseason under OC Joe Lombardi. So, while he completed a high rate of passes, he had one of the lowest average depths of target (aDOT) among QBs that got a decent sample size. It wasn’t much different for Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham when Nix sat against the Cardinals.

The offense was also set up to play to Bo’s strengths with a lot of moving pockets and easy pitch-and-catch. But, will that help a defense that struggled last season per the advanced metrics? They were 24th in Success Rate on defense and lost some key contributors. Now an inexperienced QB will have to do his part to give that unit a boost.

Player to Watch: C Luke Wattenberg
More often than not, the “Player to Watch” will be a skill player on either side of the ball, but Wattenberg is in the spotlight to open the season here. The Broncos return four starters on the OL otherwise, but interior pressure is the biggest hardship for a rookie QB trying to go through his progressions and get to game speed. The 2022 fifth-round pick only played 38 offensive snaps last season and replaces Lloyd Cushenberry III, who played all 1,069. Nix will get the ball out early and quick, but if the Broncos ever want to go downfield, they may have some hiccups.

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