NFL 2024 Season Win Total Best Bets

After a month-plus of NFL prep, looking at several different offseason factors that drive my thinking, I am now prepared to unveil the season-win total prop wagers that I will be investing in this season.

Hopefully, you’ve been following along as since about six weeks ago, I’ve taken a look at:

 

Top NFL Resources:

After reviewing all of the materials this weekend, I’ve come up with eight different season-win total wagers I will be making. Four of them are Overs, four of them are Unders. However, before I unveil them, in the spirit of transparency, I just want to share that in the last two years, I’ve gone 4-4 each, following a 4-3-1 record in 2021. Thus, I’m only one game over .500 over the last three seasons. Take it with a grain of salt.

Teams I expect to go Over their season win totals (team totals courtesy of DraftKings):

Atlanta Over 9.5 wins

The Falcons made a bold move in acquiring QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason to a massive contract. They then proceeded to confuse everyone by drafting QB Michael Penix with the eighth pick. In any case, Cousins’ career has been checkered. While he has proven the ability to stuff the stat sheet with both Washington and Minnesota, postseason success has eluded him.

Atlanta has a crop of talented young skill position players and he could be just what they needed to elevate their careers. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cousins has gone 74-60. Strangely, this might be the place he has the best chance to succeed, in my opinion, as he is a huge upgrade over Desmond Ridder, both in his abilities and in his leadership. The Falcons’ defense was reasonably good in allowing 21.9 PPG last season, and they lost six games by single-possession margins. In those, the offense scored just 20.3 PPG and passed for less than 220 YPG. Their new QB could almost single-handedly turn those games over.

If all of this weren’t enough, heading into the season, the Falcons have the easiest schedule in all of the NFL. It doesn’t start easy but from Week 4 and beyond, this team could roll. Don’t overlook them even if they start slow. Cousins and the Falcons could just be getting warmed up.

LA Chargers Over 8.5 wins

For all of the Chargers fans who had it up to their eyeballs with former head coach Brandon Staley and his abandonment of the running game, strange point-after-TD decisions, and otherwise highly controversial coaching tact, the change to Jim Harbaugh should be a welcomed one. Not only has Harbaugh been wildly successful in his coaching career, but he has also been dramatically more predictable and a huge culture guy.

Harbaugh bled Maize and Blue at Michigan and comes off a season leading that team to a national title at the college level. He is accustomed to winning and has big plans to do so for the Chargers, a team he once quarterbacked. Now, there are some big question marks on the roster after the franchise chose to say goodbye to a host of veterans that have defined it over the last few years, but let’s face it, the team was not as successful as perhaps it should have been.

QB Justin Herbert is still in place and remains one of the top young gunslingers in the game. While he will have to get used to an untested set of weapons, he will also likely have much of the pressure off of him as the offense transitions to a more run-oriented attack. On the defensive side of the ball, this is a team loaded with star talent. If you look back at the last eight games of the 2023 season, take away the 63-21 loss to Las Vegas, the defense allowed just 17.1 PPG. This team needed to start over, and it did. With a lot of uncertainty in Denver and Las Vegas, I think the Chargers have a great chance to benefit. I’ll call for at least a 10-7 season and playoff berth.

New England Over 4.5 wins

One of the strangest changeover systems I have come across in studying NFL teams from one season to the next reads as follows: Teams that won five or fewer games, none by double-digit margins, have shown significant improvement in the follow-up campaign. In fact, since 1993, there have been 52 such teams, and 50 of them improved the next season by an average of 3.9 wins per season, including one by as many as 10 games.

Why is it strange? Well, it basically says that the team was so bad that it basically can only go up from here. New England is one of the teams affected by this angle in ’24, as is the team I’m next to unveil, Washington. For the Patriots, the room for quick improvement is immense. They lost eight games by single-possession score margins while only scoring 13.9 PPG. The offense can best be described as dysfunctional with QB Mac Jones under center.

With rookie QB Drake Maye expected to battle Jacoby Brissett for the starting spot, it is an upgrade regardless of who wins. The other thing that figures to give this franchise an immediate boost is the changing of head coaches. While it may seem crazy to think that letting go of the league’s most successful coach ever in Bill Belichick, the changeover to rookie head coach Jerod Mayo should give this team a breath of fresh air after things had clearly gone sour following the departure of QB Tom Brady a few years ago. If that weren’t enough, this team had terrible turnover luck last season. Wipe the slate completely clean for New England in 2024.

Washington Over 6.5 wins

Speaking of franchises that needed to wipe the slate clean in 2024, no one needed it more than Washington. For all of the discussion about how nice of a man Ron Rivera is, and how much he overcame in his battle with Cancer and other things, I just never have been a big fan of him as a head coach. In his last six years, his record is just 38-56. How many coaches get to hang on to jobs in this day and age with that lack of success?

Let’s face it, the Commanders were a trainwreck last season, winning just four games while allowing 30.5 PPG and enduring the league’s worst turnover differential. All of those stats point to a typical rebound by NFL standards by doing nothing but coming back to the field. The moves the franchise has made in the offseason are the reason I think this team has a chance for the biggest improvement from season to season to anyone.

First, with the defense being so awful, the team has turned to Dan Quinn to take over as head coach. Quinn led an explosive turnover-forcing defense with Dallas the last few seasons and has brought Joe Whitt, Jr. along with him to be the new DC here. Second, they have a new QB in rookie Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU. While admittedly I was a fan of Sam Howell and thought the team had a lot of offensive potential with him, that pales in comparison to the dual-threat dynamic that Daniels can bring. Plus, with the terrible turnover problems, it was clear the team needed to get better at QB. Historically, all but two of the 24 teams since 2009 that had a negative turnover differential and were outscored by more than 10 PPG improved their won-lost record the next season, by an average of 24.5%, or 3.9 wins per team. This team has made the changes to make that happen.

Teams I expect to go Under their season win totals

Buffalo Under 10.5 wins

How many times can a team keep coming up short of its overall goals each season and continue coming back with the same fight? That will be a big question for the Bills this year as they once again try to bounce back from postseason disappointment. At one point in the 2023 season, head coach Sean McDermott’s team was 6-6 and went on to win its final five games despite what seemed to be a fairly formidable late-season schedule.

For 2024, the Bills have seen the departure of several key players, including starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Those roles will, of course, be filled, but will the new talent have the same sync with QB Josh Allen? This team was one of four last year that enjoyed a positive turnover differential yet finished less than .500 against the spread. This is typically a sign of a team that declines the next year. They also won six games by eight points or fewer, another potentially negative sign of things turning quickly. This looks to be a year of transition for this franchise. I don’t think they plummet but I could easily see a situation where they are fighting for a playoff spot in the last few weeks. I call for 10-7 tops, more likely 9-8.

Indianapolis Under 8.5 wins

There will be a few teams across the league this year in which a second-year quarterback and coach team up to try and build upon successful rookie campaigns. Often this brings about the end of the “honeymoon,” as things get a bit more real and opponents know more about the coaching style and system. The team that I figure to be most negatively affected in that situation this year is Indianapolis, who comes back with head coach Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson to build upon what was a noteworthy 9-8 season.

The Colts were one of my winning wagers last year, as they went over a rather low season win total. I liked what Steichen brought to the table and figured that QB Gardner Minshew would see the bulk of the action in Richardson’s rookie year. That, of course, happened, but only because the rookie suffered a season-ending injury in the season’s fifth game. They would go on to lose their next three to drop to 3-5, and at the time, I was just about ready to tear up my wager ticket. However, Minshew steadied the ship and opened up the passing game, and the defense improved in the season’s second half.

The relief QB is now gone, and Steichen faces the pressure that all rookie coaches do in their second seasons. Indy also won six of its nine games by eight points or fewer, and 35 of the last 47 teams that did so dropped by an average of 3.1 wins per season. I don’t see this as a playoff team this season, as they are, at best, the #3 team in the AFC South, and also, with Richardson likely to struggle after his injury and not gaining much experience last year. Let’s go Under with the Colts as they struggle to a 7-10 type of season.

Philadelphia Under 10.5 wins

One of the biggest NFL stories this season will be whether or not the Eagles can return to the form that won them an NFC title two years ago or if they will continue the late-season dive that afflicted them in 2023. In going 11-6 last season, head coach Nick Sirianni’s team won eight games by single-possession margins. They also went just 1-6 in their final seven games while losing all of them against the spread.

What happened to cause such a sudden change? Well, if you can point to one game, it would have to be the decisive 42-19 loss to San Francisco in what was built up to be a “king of the NFC” type of battle. The 49ers got after QB Jalen Hurts, stopped the Eagles’ running game, and exploited what was quickly becoming a tired defense. In fact, including that game, the Philly “D” allowed 31.3 PPG in the final eight contests.

The big question for 2024 will be if Hurts can find his old form. He never really looked himself after the 49ers contest, and there wound up being rumors of internal strife with his receivers and other positional players, some addressing the “tush-push,” which bolstered his stats and took away from others. The Eagles show a top-10-level schedule for 2024 in terms of difficulty, while the rest of their division shows the bottom 12. The addition of RB Saquon Barkley is nice, but will it be a bigger signing on paper than on-field impact? I just don’t like the way this team fell off the cliff last season. It’s hard to come back from that.

Tampa Bay Under 8.5 wins

Tampa Bay scored 20.5 PPG and had a turnover edge of almost +0.5 per contest. That isn’t a good mix to start, as teams that benefit from that type of turnover luck typically fare better on the scoreboard. They are usually better than 9-8 as well. While I like the grittiness the team showed in going 6-2 in the final eight games, including a playoff win, I just don’t think the resume shows staying power. Especially with Atlanta likely to improve and New Orleans and Carolina boasting their own optimistic expectations.

Let’s face it, not everyone is going to get better, and the NFC South Division has had a recent history of teams going up and down rather quickly. I posted this system a few weeks ago in one of my changeover articles, and the Bucs qualify for it: Teams that had a positive turnover differential and won 10 or more games against the spread are fade teams in the next season. Of these 88 teams since 2009, 60 of them had won-lost-records that declined, by an average of 10.8% outright and 11.3% against the spread.

Furthermore, of the 79 that reached the playoffs, 33 failed to do so in the follow-up season. head coach Todd Bowles’ team was really inconsistent last season, scoring 14 points or fewer six times and hitting the 30-point mark four times. I think the offense looks to be more of the former in this second year with QB Baker Mayfield under center. Let’s call for a 7-10 record and third place finish in the NFC South.

If you missed any of the NFL offseason preparation pieces along the way, I encourage you to go back into your VSiN account and look under my author link for those articles. Otherwise, they will all be re-run in VSiN’s special 2024 NFL Betting Guide, due out at the end of June. Now, it’s time for me to get up to speed on everything going on in college football this offseason!

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