Our VSiN staff offer their favorite NFL team and prop best bets for the 2024 season.

MATT YOUMANS

 

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Eagles to Win NFC East (+105)

Jalen Hurts was the bridesmaid in 2022, finishing second to Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race and also losing to him in the Super Bowl. Hurts was a bust last year, throwing a career-high 15 interceptions and getting bounced in the wild-card round of the playoffs. I believe Hurts is primed for a bounce-back year, with running back Saquon Barkley joining an impressive group of playmakers. 

Many of the problems that plagued Philadelphia last season, when a 10-1 start turned into an 11-6 finish, can be fixed by new coordinators Kellen Moore (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense). Pro Football Focus analyzed the top NFL rosters going into this season and ranked the Eagles No. 3, with the Cowboys No. 9. Dallas opened as the division favorite two months ago, but the wrong team was favored and the betting market has corrected that error by the oddsmakers. The Eagles appear superior in almost all areas to the Cowboys, who have not improved in the offseason. I bet this at +135 in early May and still will recommend anything at a plus price.

Chargers Over 8.5 Wins (-155)

The skeptics will say new coach Jim Harbaugh needs a year or two to rebuild a 5-12 team, but Harbaugh is not a patient man. He plans to win immediately, and his players are buying the enthusiasm and optimism he’s selling. The Chargers are not in need of a total personnel rebuild, not with elite quarterback Justin Herbert as the starting point. Herbert will operate behind an offensive line that ranks among the league’s best and is anchored by tackles Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. This offense will punish defenses with a power running attack, helping to make Herbert a more effective passer. 

Harbaugh won a national championship at Michigan with a physical offensive line and dominant defense, and the L.A. defense will be led by veteran edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and All-Pro safety Derwin James. The Chargers have been talented underachievers sabotaged by poor coaching for several years. A last-place schedule that includes Carolina, Arizona, New England and Tennessee will help Harbaugh overachieve and reach nine or 10 wins.

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KELLEY BYDLON

Bears Alt Win Total Under 9.5 (-165) 

While I expect the Bears to be a better football team in 2024, I still think this roster needs some work, and people are probably getting too excited about how much success Caleb Williams will be able to have in his rookie season. 

However, my biggest reason for this bet is the strength of the division they play in. I’m higher on the Vikings than most, and I expect both the Lions and Packers to be playoff teams once again, which leaves the Bears very little room in my mind to get to 10 wins. No surprise, I like the Under on their regular win total as well.

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PAULY HOWARD

Bears Under 9 Wins

Shout-out to Femi Abebefe for pointing this out. The Bears are a good team on paper and upgraded at QB, but this division is tough and I still don’t trust Matt Eberflus to get this team to 10-7 and make a playoff run. The Lions and Packers are better, and the Vikings could steal a win. It is asking a lot to get to 10 wins to beat you on this bet.

Garrett Wilson 1,500+ Yards (+600)

Last year, Wilson had 95 catches for 1,042 yards with horrific QB play from Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. Now he gets maybe the biggest upgrade ever with Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Wilson should have 1,600 yards and 12+ TDs and this time we are protected if something happens to Rodgers with the signing of Tyrod Taylor as the backup.

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STEVE MAKINEN

Chargers Over 8.5 Wins

For all of the Chargers’ fans who had it up to their eyeballs with former HC Brandon Staley and his abandoning of the running game, strange point-after-TD decisions, and otherwise highly-controversial coaching tact, the change to Jim Harbaugh should be a welcomed one. Not only has Harbaugh been wildly successful in his coaching life, but he has also been dramatically more predictable and a huge culture guy as well. Harbaugh bled Maize & Blue at Michigan and comes off a season leading that team to a national title at the college level. He is accustomed to winning and has big plans to do so for the Chargers, a team he once quarterbacked. 

Now, there are some big question marks on the roster after the franchise chose to say goodbye to a host of veterans that have defined it over the last few years, but let’s face it, the team was not as successful as perhaps it should have been. QB Justin Herbert is still in place and remains one of the top young gunslingers in the game. While he will have to get used to an untested set of weapons, he will also likely have much of the pressure off of him as the offense transitions to a more run-oriented attack. 

On the defensive side of the ball, this is a team loaded with star talent. If you look back at the last eight games of the 2023 season, take away the 63-21 loss to Las Vegas, the defense allowed just 17.1 PPG. This team needed to start over and did. With a lot of uncertainty in Denver and Las Vegas, I think the Chargers have a great chance to benefit. I’ll call for at least a 10-7 season and playoff berth.

Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

Of the franchises that needed to wipe the slate clean in 2024, no one needed it more than Washington. For all of the discussion about how nice of a man Ron Rivera is, and how much he overcame in his battle with cancer and other things, I just never have been a big fan of him as a head coach. In his last six years, his record is just 38-56. How many coaches get to hang on to jobs in this day and age with that lack of success? 

Let’s face it: The Commanders were a trainwreck last season, winning just four games while allowing 30.5 PPG and enduring the league’s worst turnover differential. All of those stats point to a typical rebound by NFL standards by doing nothing but coming back to the field. The moves the franchise has made in the offseason are the reason I think this team has a chance for the biggest improvement from season to season of anyone. 

First, with the defense being so awful, the team has turned to Dan Quinn to take over as head coach. Quinn led an explosive, turnover-forcing defense with Dallas the last few seasons and has brought Joe Whitt Jr. along with him to be the new DC here. 

Second, they have a new quarterback in rookie Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU. While I was a fan of Sam Howell and thought the team had a lot of offensive potential with him, that pales in comparison to the dual-threat dynamic that Daniels can bring. Plus, with the terrible turnover problems, it was clear the team needed to get better at quarterback. 

Historically, all but two of the 24 teams since 2009 that had a negative turnover differential and were outscored by more than 10 PPG improved their won-lost record the next season by an average of 24.5%, or 3.9 wins per team. This team has made the changes to make that happen.

Eagles Under 10.5 Wins

One of the biggest stories this season in the NFL will be whether or not the Eagles can return to the form that won them an NFC title two years ago or if they will continue the late-season dive that afflicted them in 2023. In going 11-6 last season, HC Nick Sirianni’s team won eight games by single-possession margins. They also went just 1-6 in their final seven games while losing all of them against the spread. What happened to cause such a sudden change? 

Well, if you can point to one game, it would have to be the decisive 42-19 loss to San Francisco in what was built up to be a “king of the NFC” type of battle. The 49ers got after QB Jalen Hurts, stopped the Eagles’ running game, and exploited what was quickly becoming a tired defense. In fact, including that game, the Philly D allowed 31.3 PPG in the final eight contests. 

The big question for ’24 will be if Hurts can find his old form. He never really looked himself after the 49ers contest and there wound up being rumors of internal strife with his receivers and other positional players, some addressing the “tush-push” which bolstered his stats and took away from others. The Eagles show a top 10 level schedule for ’24 in terms of difficulty while the rest of their division shows bottom 12. The addition of RB Saquon Barkley is nice, but will it be a bigger signing on paper than on-field impact? I just don’t like the way this team fell off the cliff last season. It’s hard to come back from that.

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WILL HILL

Jets to Win AFC East (+190)

The Jets last made the playoffs in January 2011, but that streak should mercifully end this season. The schedule suggests there’s an opportunity to return to the postseason. When evaluating strength of schedule, nothing is perfect, but it’s better to look at projected wins of a team’s opponents as opposed to last year’s records. Either way, the Jets have a much softer schedule than their AFC East rivals. 

The Jets’ opponents, based on DraftKings season win totals, are projected to win 120 games combined. Meanwhile, the Bills’ opponents are projected to win 139.5 games, the Dolphins’ opponents 142.5 games and the Patriots are stuck with a slate of opponents expected to win 154.5 games. The favored Bills must play all four teams from last year’s NFC and AFC title games (Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers and Lions) plus the Texans.

As bad as things were for the Jets last year, they still managed to win seven games despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league and an offensive line that was often overmatched. That line has been addressed with first-round pick Olu Fashanu, as well as veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson added to the roster this offseason. 

The Jets have the easiest schedule in the division, a revamped offensive line, and a legitimate chance to justify all of the hype that came along with adding Aaron Rodgers.

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ZACHARY COHEN

Bears to Make Playoffs (-104) 

Well, I wrote that I like Williams to win Rookie of the Year and said that I view Chicago as a team that can make the playoffs. So, I might as well put my money where my mouth is. 

The Bears were a completely different defensive team once they traded for Montez Sweat, who gave Chicago the pass rusher it desperately needed. Now, the Bears should be ready to play great defense right from the jump, as there’s a lot of talent in place and Matt Eberflus is a very good defensive coach. 

Offensively, there isn’t much preventing the Bears from taking off right away. If Williams is half the quarterback people think he is, this is going to be an explosive bunch. Chicago’s wide receiver group is absolutely incredible, and the team also added D’Andre Swift in the backfield. 

The only thing that could get to the Bears is a lack of composure. Williams is going to need to prove that he can be trusted late in close games. But I tend to think he’ll be alright, especially with a reasonable early-season schedule giving him the opportunity to ease himself in. 

Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins (-122) / Dolphins to Win AFC East (+210)

Last season, the Dolphins were second in the league in Offensive DVOA. Mike McDaniel turned the Dolphins into one of the most explosive offenses in football, with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle giving Miami a high-flying passing attack. The Dolphins also had one of the most effective running games in the league, whether it was Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane carrying the rock. Well, that offense isn’t getting any worse in 2024. In fact, Miami’s offensive line play should be a little better, and the team also added Odell Beckham Jr. and Jonnu Smith to the mix. 

Where Miami needs to be better is on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins were just 19th in the league in Defensive DVOA last year, but I think the team is going to move into the top 10 in that category in 2024. The team replaced defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with Anthony Weaver in the offseason. Fangio is a well-respected coach around the league, but he can be a little too conservative and his defenses tend to struggle in big moments. Weaver is viewed as one of the brightest up-and-coming coaches in the league, and he should do well with the talent at his disposal. 

The Dolphins also made a big move in bringing in corner Kendall Fuller. He had a PFF grade of 83.1 last season and should help form a tough cornerback duo with Jalen Ramsey, who should be able to play better than he did in 2023. If those two end up being a force, Miami is going places. And I’m lower on the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets than most. That said, I like the Dolphins to win at least 10 games and also take the AFC East. 

Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (+140)

I picked the Ravens and Bengals to make the playoffs in the AFC, but I was really close to putting the Steelers in. And at plus-money odds, I like the idea of backing them to win nine games. I’m not going to blindly cite the Mike Tomlin stat as a reason for this team to exceed expectations. But the group has won at least nine games in nine of the last 10 seasons. And the only difference between this year’s team and last year’s 10-win team is a significant upgrade to the quarterback room. 

I know Pittsburgh has a very difficult schedule, but this is a team that was fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA last season and the offense is going to get better. Even if Russell Wilson comes nowhere close to being the player he was in 2020, he’s a significant upgrade over Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. And if he somehow isn’t, Justin Fields will come in and give the offense a shot in the arm. 

Also, while Arthur Smith might have been a laughing stock in Atlanta, he knows how to run a productive offense. Combining that with an elite defense, along with Tomlin’s ability to get his guys up on a week-to-week basis, should allow Pittsburgh to win a lot of the tough games on its schedule. 

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FEMI ABEBEFE

Bears Under 9 Wins (+100)

We’re entering the summer of the Chicago Bears. The hype around this team is set to reach a fever pitch in August when they’re featured in HBO’s Hard Knocks throughout training camp and the preseason. While I think there’s reason for optimism with Chicago, I do think they’re being overvalued in pretty much every betting market.

Like most football bettors and fans, I think highly of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. I mean, how could you not? The guy won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore. With that said, I’ve never seen a team led by a rookie have a preseason win total as high as this one. On principle alone, I like the Under on this team – and I like it a lot.

At some point, Williams should be one of the better quarterbacks in the NFC, but why does that have to happen in 2024? I think the early success of CJ Stroud is setting unrealistic expectations for Williams. Not to mention, the biggest question mark for the Bears is their offensive line. I’m a big proponent of the game being won and lost in the trenches, and I hate the idea of putting an inexperienced quarterback behind a shaky group.

On the flip side of the ball, the Chicago defense really turned things around during the second half of the 2023 regular season. However, they didn’t really do much to improve that unit – which if you gave him truth serum, probably annoys head coach Matt Eberflus. The most glaring weakness on the Bears defense is the three-technique defensive tackle. That’s arguably the most valuable position in the Eberflus defense. Instead of opting to address it, the front office decided to double down on wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in this past spring’s NFL Draft.

This team would be really good in a seven-on-seven league, but that’s not the reality of the NFL. On top of all that, while Eberflus is a good defensive coach, he has yet to show real head coaching prowess to justify having a win total of nine. Through two seasons as a head coach, Eberflus boasts a W/L record of 10-24. Now he has to win 10 games in one season just to go Over this number. I think it’s time we set realistic expectations for the Chicago Bears in 2024.

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WES REYNOLDS

Ravens Under 10.5 Wins (+130)

I played this at Under 11.5 (-160) earlier in the summer, but would still play this number. 

While Lamar Jackson is just in his second year of a five-year extension signed in May 2023, there are a large number of questions around him and the offense in general. The offensive line loses two starters (Morgan Moses – NY Jets; Kevin Zeitler – Detroit). The Ravens drafted rookie Roger Rosengarten in the second round out of Washington and will likely start Andrew Vorhees, who slipped into the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft after tearing his ACL at the Scouting Combine. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum anchor this group, but the former has a long history of injuries and the Ravens are thin up front even if he stays healthy.

The Ravens running game should continue to be one of the better ones in the league with Jackson and even an aging Derrick Henry, who comes to Charm City after eight seasons in Music City. However, Zay Flowers is the only proven playmaker at wide receiver. Another downfield threat will have to emerge because now the league has film on Todd Monken’s offense which they did not have in his first year as offensive coordinator last season. Even with a dynamic quarterback like Jackson, the Ravens offense risks becoming predictable. 

Zachary Orr has been on the Ravens coaching staff since 2017 but now takes over for Mike McDonald, who is now head coach in Seattle. Two other defensive assistants have also moved on to become defensive coordinators elsewhere (Dennard Wilson – Tennessee; Anthony Weaver – Miami). 

The turnover is not limited to the coaching staff. The Ravens had more free agents leave their 2023 roster than any other team in the league including four defensive starters. 

Furthermore, every other team in the AFC North looks at least slightly improved from last season. 

Cincinnati Bengals to Win AFC North (+145)

The Bengals managed to go 9-8 despite losing Joe Burrow in Week 11. However, that 9-8 record earned them a last place finish in the AFC North. That record also earned them the last place schedule in the division. 

Burrow will have a new offensive coordinator in Dan Pitcher who was promoted from quarterbacks coach after Brian Callahan took the head coaching gig in Tennessee. Zac Taylor will still be the play caller, so not much will change. Ja’Marr Chase saw the contract that Justin Jefferson got in Minnesota and should have a monster campaign in his contract year. 

The defense was a bit disappointing last year but got some major upgrades, particularly in the secondary, with Vonn Bell returning after a disappointing single season in Carolina. Geno Stone led the league with seven interceptions for safeties in Baltimore last year. D.J. Reader is certainly a loss as a run-stopper, but Sheldon Rankins comes in from Houston and can come close to matching that production and is a better pass-rusher. 

The Ravens will still be solid, but should take a step back. The Browns and the Steelers are also still uncertain at quarterback. Cincinnati is not. 

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JONATHAN VON TOBEL

Dolphins to Win AFC East (+200)

Miami has a very high ceiling this season, and much of it has to do with its explosive offense. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the best receiver duo in the league, and they are joined by Odell Beckham Jr. this season. Raheem Mostert is one of the most explosive backs in the league. De’Von Achane is a physical runner who averaged 4.94 yards per carry after contact. The Dolphins also have the least questions – by my measure – this season. The Bills are rebuilding key position groups. The Jets have a 40-year-old quarterback. The Patriots are rebuilding everything. This season sets up nicely for Miami to break through and win the division.

Dolphins to Win AFC No. 1 seed (+1000)

If Miami wins the AFC East, it can certainly win the top seed in the AFC. The Dolphins have the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL when rating opponents by win total. From Week 11 on, they leave the Eastern time zone just twice. They have the best offense in the league and a manageable schedule. That makes this worth a play at the listed odds of +1000 or better. 

Falcons to Win NFC No. 1 seed (+750)

This is similar to the argument for Miami to have the top seed in the AFC. Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the NFL by a wide margin. The Falcons are favored to win 14 of their 17 games at this point of the offseason. With Kirk Cousins under center, Atlanta should be one of the best offenses in the league. Pair that with the schedule and the Falcons are worth a wager to grab the top seed in the NFC.

Anthony Richardson to Win Offensive Player of the Year (+4000)

Richardson played in only four games and was on the field for just 173 snaps last season, but the upside is clearly there. He also plays for a great offensive mind in Shane Steichen who got this team to within one dropped catch of the postseason last year. Steichen will get the most out of Richardson, and with his dual-threat ability, he could put up some very strong numbers if he can stay healthy. It’s a longshot, but it’s one worth sweating if Richardson breaks out in his second season.

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DUSTIN SWEDELSON

Saquon Barkley to Win Offensive Player of the Year (+1600)

The Philadelphia Eagles made potentially the best non-QB offseason free agent acquisition in RB Saquon Barkley. Adding Barkley has created a perfect combination of talent to run the RPO scheme that made this offense successful in the past. Combining Barkley’s dual-threat ability in the backfield with a skilled runner like Hurts will limit how defenses can attack this offense. Add in the passing options at WR and TE with AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and there isn’t an easy way to focus on limiting this offensive attack.

For Barkley, he now gets to join an offense where he isn’t the focal point for defenses to stop. In New York, he carried Daniel Jones to the playoffs in 2022. During that campaign, Barkley not only ran for over 1,300 yards, but he also had 76 receptions. Defenses knew that he was their go-to guy for dynamic plays, and he was still able to combine for over 1,600 all-purpose yards. Also key, he played in 16 games back in 2022. Despite his durability issues of the past, there is precedent to believe he has the potential to be more available in 2024.

What did Barkley have to gain by forcing himself back from injuries with the Giants in years past? He had yet to sign a long-term contract so his financial security was always up in the air. And the Giants averaged 5.66 wins per year during his tenure in New York, so there wasn’t much to rush back for. Philadelphia guaranteed him $26 million over three years. The days of him sitting out when he could play at less than 100% will be fewer and far between. 

Just look at last year’s Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey. He signed his first extension back in 2020 but played just 16 games through 2.5 seasons on bad Panthers squads. Suddenly, he gets to a contender in San Francisco and he’s more durable? The games mattered more. We saw him play through injuries more. He was also more successful because other teams couldn’t key in and focus on just stopping him. I’d also add that Derrick Henry also won this award in 2020 after signing a four-year, $50 million deal with Tennessee. They paid him and then ran him for 2,000 yards that year. Barkley is in a very similar position to both McCaffrey, when he went to San Francisco and Henry, after Tennessee paid him. Expect a big year.

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TIM MURRAY

Falcons to Win the NFC South (-115)

The Falcons have had quite the interesting offseason. Atlanta hired Raheem Morris as its new head coach and Morris brought in Zac Robinson as his offensive coordinator. Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple. Robinson spent the past five seasons in Los Angeles and was the passing game coordinator for the past two years. 

Kirk Cousins heads to Atlanta on a four-year, $180 million deal. Cousins is coming off an Achilles injury that he sustained in Week 8 but should be ready for the start of the season (Cousins is currently +500 to win Comeback Player of the Year). Cousins has familiarity with the McVay system and Robinson should be a great fit with the veteran quarterback. While he doesn’t have Justin Jefferson anymore to throw to, the Falcons group of pass-catchers is solid. Atlanta spent back-to-back top 10 picks on TE Kyle Pitts (2021) and Drake London (2022). I expect a big rise in production from both with Cousins under center. RB Bijan Robinson could explode in his second year in Atlanta.

Atlanta should not have spent the eighth overall selection on QB Michael Penix during the NFL Draft, but this franchise is in good shape in 2024 to take down a mediocre NFC South. The Falcons have the easiest schedule in the NFL and are currently only an underdog in four games in 2024. If you want to risk it, you could wait until after Week 3 to place this bet since the Falcons play the Eagles and Chiefs in Weeks 2 and 3. I, however, am going to ride with Atlanta now, as it would certainly be a disappointment if they did not win the NFC South this year. 

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MITCH MOSS

Chicago Bears Under 9 Wins (+100)

Tons of hype and very high expectations for a team that has been very bad, for the most part, over the last two years. I think they’re the most interesting team in the league as we get closer to the start of the season, but they have to win 10+ games to beat me here. That’s a wager worth making for me. I’m buying into this team being at least one year away. 

Breece Hall to have 1000+ rushing yards & 500+ receiving yards (+450)

Betting the Under on individual player props is typically the best way to approach the NFL season because so many things can go wrong (hello, injuries). 

Hall already has an injury history, so betting on him to have a huge year will be extra tricky. However, the third-year RB had 994 yards rushing last year and 591 yards receiving. That came with a pitch count as he was off said injury in his rookie season. The team also had one of the worst QB situations we’ve ever watched after Aaron Rodgers got hurt, thus making opposing defenses game plan for Hall even more. If Rodgers stays healthy this year, that should mean more running lanes for Hall. 

Sauce Gardner to Win Defensive Player of the Year (+7200)

This award has been around since the early 1970s. A grand total of 11 players in the secondary have won the award. That tells you how difficult it is for a cornerback or safety to bring this award home at the end of the year. 

Then look at the names at the top of the odds board this year. T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, Aidin Hutchinson, Will Anderson, Jr., Danielle Hunter, Josh Allen, Chris Jones and Montez Sweat are all listed before you find the first secondary player listed (Kyle Hamilton). They have to overcome players with a bigger spotlight and sexier numbers for voters to look at. Consider this: DaRon Bland had nine interceptions and five TDs last year!!! He finished fifth in the voting and had one vote for first place. 

It’s hard to win if you play one of these two positions. With that said I could not turn down the number on Gardner. Don’t forget that Tariq Woolen had better numbers as a rookie than Sauce, but the media and voters fell in love with Gardner and gave him the award. The narrative already exists for him, he plays in New York, and the Jets will have an elite defense again this year. We just watched NBA voters give Rudy Gobert DPOY in the NBA for being the best defensive player on the best defensive team in the league. Can the same thing not happen with Sauce Gardner if he has a great year? 

TYLER SHOEMAKER

Ravens +3 vs. Chiefs Week 1

If this was a playoff game, I might feel differently, but the Chiefs’ TSI power rating has decreased each of the last two seasons. My theory is that they’re starting to get championship fatigue, which sounds crazy but is pretty prevalent in sports due to the mental and physical strain it takes to be contending for (and winning) championships for several years in a row – see: Golden State Warriors. TSI projects the Ravens as 1.5-point favorites in Arrowhead. I’ll take the field goal with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. 

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MIKE SOMICH

Lions to Win NFC North +150

Let’s be honest, one of the biggest wins in the offseason was Ben Johnson staying in Detroit. With his return, this offense is all systems go with LaPorta and Gibbs entering their 2nd year and Goff pulling the trigger. In the draft they addressed their biggest need on Defense at corner. This will be a better Lions team than last year yet they are not priced that way because of the hype around Green Bay and Chicago. 


While I do believe that Green Bay could be a contender and Chicago could contend for a playoff spot, the market is priced like both have a 25% chance or better to win the division. I just cannot get there so I’ll fade the double hype trains in the NFC North and play the Lions +150.

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STORMY BUONANTONY 

Jets to Miss the Playoffs +120

I feel like I might be the only person on the planet that’s not a believer in the Jets in 2024. Everyone thinks Aaron Rodgers is back healthy and will lead NY to the promised land (betting them to win the AFC East, make the playoffs, go Over their season win total). While I certainly understand the appeal and the roster is talented across the board, I’m resisting the urge. While everyone is zigging, I’ve elected to zag — which when you think about it is a little comical. I’m simply betting the Jets to do exactly what they’ve done the last 13 straight years and continue to miss the postseason.

Rodgers is 40 years old, coming off major Achilles surgery, and the last time we saw him in Green Bay was one of the worst of his career. I am aware that mediocre Rodgers is still leaps and bounds from Zach Wilson, but are we sure he will stay healthy and return in God-mode? He’s protected by an offensive line that was musical chairs with 13 different combinations last season. Yes, that OL is bolstered by the additions of Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but both of them have recent injury history. Smith has missed 37 games over the last four seasons. They also bring in another weapon in Mike Williams to play opposite Garrett Wilson, but wait…isn’t he also coming off a major surgery?

Then let’s throw in the mix all the off-the-field drama that follows this team, a general lack of leadership from the head coach, and an offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett that appears incapable of adjusting should his star QB find himself unavailable/limited. The defense will be really good, but other than that, there are too many “ifs” with this team for me to bet on their success.

Rams to Make the Playoffs (+110)

Just when we thought the 2022 Super Bowl champs were going to be in a lengthy rebuild mode, the Rams bounced back from a 5-12 year with a 10-win season and playoff berth in 2024. They took the Lions to the brink in that Wild Card round game mind you and might be a little better than they were a year ago. (I am aware how crazy that sounds on the surface, given the retirement of one of the best players in the league, but I’ll get there in a moment)

The only reason I didn’t put the Rams Over their 8.5 win total as a “best bet” is because the juice is around -155 and I think there might be a better in-season opportunity to hit the Over given the early portion of their schedule. The Rams first five weeks are at Detroit, at Arizona, vs San Francisco, @ Chicago and vs Green Bay. If they’re 1-2 early, we could have a good buy-low opportunity before the schedule eases up following their Week 6 bye.

While there’s no replacing the presence of a future HOFer in Aaron Donald at DT, I do think fans and bettors might be reading a little too much into that loss on defense. Don’t sleep on Kobie Turner for one, and I like the route LA went in the draft, grabbing Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse in the first round, as well as fellow Seminole tackle Braden Fiske in Round 2.

Offensively, they’re going to put up points. Matthew Stafford was tremendous last year when he stayed upright. They brought in Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson to the OL, re-signed Kevin Dotson, who was great in 2023, and we’ll see Steve Avila move back to his natural position at center. If the big guys up front can give Stafford a clean pocket, he’s got plenty of playmakers to get the ball to. The emergence of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, paired with Cooper Kupp getting back to form, could be a dangerous sight for opposing defenses.

While I think the 49ers will take the NFC West, the Rams are extremely live to make the playoffs back-to-back years.

Daniel Jones Under 16.5 TD passes (-125)

I know laying juice on a bet in June-August isn’t the most fun way to tie up your money, but I really like this bet. Considering Daniel Jones has only thrown more than 15 touchdown passes once in his five-year career (and it was his rookie season), I don’t think it’s a stretch to say coming off a torn ACL, multiple neck injuries and playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football that he goes Under yet again. The former Duke product has also failed to throw more than two TDs in a single game since December of 2019.

In the six games Jones started this past season, he was 1-5 with two TDs and six interceptions, with the Giants averaging 11.3 points per game. The offense failed to score a first-half TD in any of those games. In fact, a Jason Pinnock pick-six against Miami gave NY more first-half points than Jones did in any of those games. The Giants actually averaged nearly a TD more the rest of the season with their “$40M dollar man” off the field.

While I know this feels like a massively important season for Jones, given the “buyers remorse” rumors and discussion around the draft of potentially taking a QB, I’m not sure he’s capable of living up to the contract that ultimately cost New York, Saquon Barkley. For good measure, let’s also throw in the mix that Drew Lock was signed this offseason with the belief he could have an opportunity to compete for the job.

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