Best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews.
(odds as of November 17, 11:30 p.m. PT)
The Jets are now 36 drives, 11 quarters, and counting without scoring an offensive touchdown. Yet, they have their fair share of backers in the market this week because of how disappointing the Bills have been, having lost three of their last four games and are currently on an 0-6 ATS run.
Josh Allen has also thrown an INT in six consecutive games, and the Bills’ defense has been ravaged by injuries, especially to its leader, Matt Milano.
Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was scapegoated and fired last week, and it seems like head coach Sean McDermott is grasping at straws to salvage this season.
While Allen is just 4-6 ATS vs. the Jets in his career and has always been given fits by them, this seems like the "back is against the wall" spot here.
Bet: Bills -7
Last year, before Super Bowl LVII, I asked myself one question. Am I really going to pass up betting Patrick Mahomes as an underdog in the Super Bowl? The answer was no, and Kansas City defeated Philadelphia 38-35 as +1.5-point underdogs.
This week, the Chiefs are not underdogs but are only laying less than a field goal. Mahomes is 20-6-1 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog.
Granted, the Eagles are 8-1 and have the best record in the NFL, but they are also getting into the meat of their schedule, having survived at home vs. Dallas two weeks ago, playing at Kansas City this week, then hosting Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to face both Dallas and Seattle on the road. This might be the most arduous six-game stretch in the league this year. While the Eagles are clearly a good team, we will find out how good they are.
Despite having the league’s best record, the Eagles only rank ninth in Overall DVOA. While they rank seventh offensively, the Eagles rank just No. 19 defensively because they are No. 22 against the pass.
Although the Chiefs have looked a little out of sync offensively lately (Mahomes has had 24 dropped passes – most in the NFL), they still rank sixth. It has been the defense that has been the strongest unit, ranking third in DVOA.
Look for the Chiefs to get back on track offensively, as Andy Reid is 27-4 SU in his coaching career off a bye. The Eagles have been a bit overpriced by the market, and it will show here.
Bet: Chiefs -140 ML
BEST OF THE REST
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cardinals/Texans OV 48
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Vikings +8.5/Bills -1