NFL best bets for Week 12 from Wes Reynolds

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Best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews.

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(odds as of November 24, 11:30 p.m. PT)

 

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3; 48.5)

Last Monday night, the Eagles were outgained 336-238 and had a 23-16 first down disadvantage. Jalen Hurts was also sacked five times; meanwhile, the Eagles pass rush only sacked Patrick Mahomes just once. Yet, the Eagles found a way to win 21-17 courtesy of two Chiefs red zone turnovers and several dropped passes by Chiefs receivers including two on the final drive.

The Eagles have run well in the close games all season and are now 6-1 in games of one score or less. On the other hand, the Bills are just 2-5 in games decided by one score.

Buffalo is still a top-five run and offense, according to DVOA, and it has had terrible turnover luck and finishing drives variance that has created a perception that the team is much worse than it actually is.

While former Bills OC Ken Dorsey may have been scapegoated by head coach Sean McDermott when he was fired two weeks ago, the Bills offense has looked the best that it has looked in a while under new OC Joe Brady scoring 32 points, its most since Week 4, and generating 393 yards.

The Bills offense is No. 1 in rushing success rate, No. 2 in passing success rate, No. 1 in overall success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play when you exclude turnovers and can take advantage of an Eagles pass defense that rates No. 19 in DVOA against a Bills passing attack that still ranks No. 2.

An interesting nugget on this game is that a team that upset the defending Super Bowl Champion is 0-6 ATS in its following game since 2020.

Bet: Bills +3

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3; 43)

In Week 6, the Vikings laid -3 at Chicago and prevailed in an ugly 19-13 win. That game was with Kirk Cousins as the starter and Minnesota was outgained 275-220. However, Justin Fields got hurt and Chicago had to finish up the game with Tyson Bagent.

Now Fields is back, and he still has issues taking sacks, but he gives the Bears greater big-play capability. Last week in Fields’ return at Detroit, he threw for 169 yards and a touchdown plus ran for 104 on the ground.

Minnesota saw its 5-0 SU and ATS streaks come to an end last week at Denver. Joshua Dobbs has given the Vikings some energy but eventually reaches his ceiling. Last week, he had three fumbles (only lost one) and threw an interception.

The Bears are no great shakes, but they have shown improvement since head coach Matt Eberflus has taken over the defensive playcalling and have covered four of their last five games (2-3 SU record). 

Bet: Bears +3

 

BEST OF THE REST

Chiefs -10 at Raiders

 

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Buccaneers/Colts OV 44.5

 

TEASER OF THE WEEK

Texans +7.5/Browns +7.5