NFL Week 15 Best Bets
The Titans upset at Miami this past Monday night saved a .500 record (3-3-1 ATS) for me in Week 14 of the NFL slate. However, with some moneyline action on both the Broncos and the Jets as underdogs, I was able to secure a personal profit. Hopefully, you did as well. My season-long record on these best bets is now 57-39-1 ATS, and back under 60% at 59.4%. We get our first Saturday games of the season this week, and I have plays for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday on this week’s list after digging deep once again into this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report. Take a look.
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Minnesota at Cincinnati
As anemic of an effort as it was, the Vikings still managed to get the win at Las Vegas last Sunday despite only scoring a field goal. While bettors had to be horribly disappointed by one missed field goal and a decision not to kick another one, the win was all that mattered for head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team. Since the win, it seems that bettors and oddsmakers have turned against them entirely.
The same can’t be said for the Bengals, quite the opposite, in fact, after back-to-back impressive outings by backup QB Jake Browning in wins. Now, we saw it with Minnesota earlier when Josh Dobbs took over for Kirk Cousins. Two games of film on Dobbs were enough to snuff out a solid start. Will it be the same with Browning? We’ll see, but after two weeks of little respect from oddsmakers, it seems to have turned quickly as the Bengals are all the rage, favored by 3 here and getting the attention of 79% of bet volume at DraftKings. That can’t be a good sign. As I say, every week is new unto its own in the NFL.
Take a look at the system that says we should expect a better outing from Minnesota here: NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 17-10 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) record. I’m not totally sold on Browning yet, but this will be a big one to prove whether or not he can lead a late-season playoff push. I’ll bet against it.
Let’s go Minnesota +3 (hoping to get to +3.5)
Denver at Detroit
Detroit seems to have hit a rough patch lately, but after a pair of back-to-back road games, the Lions get to return home this week, where they are scoring 28 PPG. They have been very consistent in their ability to put up points at Ford Field as well, eclipsing the 20-point mark in all six games this year after doing so in the final four home contests of 2022 while averaging 35 PPG. They have also been a great bounce-back team lately, having won their last eight games SU and ATS when coming off a loss. That is a sign of a well-coached team.
Do you know a team that hasn’t been prolific or consistent offensively this season despite a recent surge? Denver. The Broncos have been held to 20 points or fewer five times this season and haven’t hit the 30-point mark since Week 4. I have a feeling they may need to do so this week to get a win in Detroit. With favorites on a 5-0 ATS streak in the DEN-DET series, I’ll look for #6 on Saturday night.
Let’s lay the 4.5-points with Detroit (+/-1)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
Houston at Tennessee
I don’t think I’ve called a game more surprisingly accurate in the last few years of NFL betting than when I projected the Texans’ struggles last week at New York. I just felt with Houston’s youth and inexperience, it would just be a difficult spot. Plus, the Texans were getting a little too big for themselves, kind of like Green Bay this past Monday. Now, with a lot of the pressure off, head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team gets a date with a team that is off a huge victory, one that the betting public and oddsmakers have seemed to embrace again, the Titans.
Tennessee is a 3-point favorite in the matchup, and let’s be honest, it would have never been this way prior to last week’s results for both teams. If anything, the ugly loss puts the Texans in a good covering spot for this game: NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 18-30 SU but 33-15 ATS (68.8%) over the last decade-plus. Houston QB CJ Stroud is recovering from a concussion and may/may not play here. The final line will reflect it either way. I like the spot regardless.
Let’s go with Houston +3 (or anywhere it moves upon Stroud news)
NY Jets at Miami
Ironically, the two teams who last week faced those that I wrote about in the Texans-Titans game square off in a separate contest this week. And it seems that bettors are having the opposite reactions to these teams off the results of Week 14. They have jumped on the Jets and abandoned the Dolphins. In my opinion, both teams were in typical NFL over- and under-performing spots last week, and both came to fruition.
Let’s face the facts, Miami is still one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and a team that has typically throttled bad competition. The Jets, despite last week’s second-half outburst, are still one of the league’s worst offenses. And the line for the head-to-head matchup is not even double-digits.
Let’s take a look at some recent rematch trends for each of these teams. Miami is 10-3 ATS in the last 13, including 4-0 in 2022, NY Jets: 4-19 SU and a 7-15-1 ATS skid. Miami is also 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven hosting New York, and because of the earlier 34-13 Black Friday thrashing, will qualify for a strong rematch system: Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 78-23 SU and 64-37 ATS (63.4%) in the rematch. Miami has too much to play for to mess around at home for a second straight week with an inferior opponent.
Lay the 8.5-points with Miami
San Francisco at Arizona
Anyone who has followed NFL handicapping a lot over the last several years knows that I don’t readily take a lot of road favorites unless I think one team is just far superior to the other. That is the case here with SF-ARI, and I’m willing to lay a huge number on it.
In my opinion, this Arizona team doesn’t seem to have the same fight it did earlier in the season. Sure, they won at Pittsburgh last week, but the Steelers have no offense. Any magic that seemed to return with QB Kyler Murray has waned, as the Cardinals have scored just 18 PPG in the last three weeks. San Francisco is averaging 444.5 YPG in its last 6 against defenses much tougher than Arizona’s. They are as close to a lock to get 30+ points this week as any other team.
Being as how this is a rematch from an earlier 35-16 49ers win, we also have some rematch trends in place: Arizona: brutal 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS home stretch, San Francisco: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS road in the last nine, and San Francisco: 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 when having won the initial outing.
If that weren’t enough, on a five-game winning streak, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team qualifies for this system: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 48-11 SU and 38-19-2 ATS since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
Let’s lay the big number (-13.5 +/-1) with San Francisco
Washington at LA Rams
There aren’t many games throughout an NFL season which I feel oddsmakers simply missed. This Washington-Los Angeles game for Sunday just might be, however. The Commanders’ team we saw put up a big fight at Seattle about a month or so ago is not the same one playing at this point in the season. The Rams, on the other hand, are much better than they were at that point. This line reflects more of what these teams were many weeks ago.
If you look at my recent ratings for this week’s NFL teams, you’ll see that head coach Ron Rivera’s team is dead last in the NFL at -24.1, essentially that level of play would represent a Power Rating of -0.5 on my scale. Currently, I credit Washington with a PR of 18 for their whole body of work. That’s how bad they’ve been lately. The Rams’ Recent Ratings is 36.7 points better!
I don’t think the bye week will have done anything to save a team that is in turmoil right now. In fact, the bye week brings up another system against Washington: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 18-9 SU and ATS since 2019). The Commanders are also on 0-5 SU and ATS losing streak in post-bye week road games, outscored by 15.4 PPG. My official Power Rating Line says LA should be a -9.2 favorite. IMO, this is a miss.
Lay the 6.5-points (up to 8.5) with the Rams
Baltimore at Jacksonville
After reading this write-up backing Jacksonville, you are probably coming to the understanding that I generally prefer to back teams that bettors and experts have turned on and fade those that they have jumped on the bandwagon for. I think the NFL, aside from a few teams on both ends of the spectrum, is full of parity where teams can’t be judged so harshly based on a game or two.
A couple of weeks ago, the Jaguars were everyone’s darling and made it all the way to being double-digit favorites on a Monday night over a perennial playoff team. Well, since losing that game and consequently another, everyone has backed off, and head coach Doug Pederson’s defending divisional champions find themselves as a 3-point home dog against a team they’ve typically played well against, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Without making this all about the Jaguars and not giving up on them at all, tell me, are you sold on Baltimore yet? Last week’s OT win over the Rams left me feeling like this is the same old Ravens, not a tier 1 club yet.
In a big SNF spot for Jacksonville, it will be backed by some SNF trends we continue to pound when they arise: Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 17-16 SU and 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) dating back to 2017, and the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 11-22 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. The Ravens allow 16.8 PPG, and we last hit with this one two weeks ago with Green Bay over KC. I expect the Jaguars to play well here against all the money/bets on DraftKings.
Let’s go Jacksonville +3.5 (+/- 1)
Philadelphia at Seattle
Oddsmakers seem to have posted the total for the Monday night game between Philadelphia and Seattle as if everything is right offensively with both teams. How can we possibly look at it as such? The Eagles’ offense is a mess and things really broke down last week at Dallas as they failed to score an offensive TD. In the last two weeks, as a team, they’ve scored just 32 points.
For Seattle, we don’t yet know the status of QB Geno Smith, who missed last week’s game. Even after a fast start, backup Drew Lock guided the Seahawks to just 16 points at San Francisco. Plus, overall, this team is only averaging 21.5 PPG. It should also be noted that these teams have played a very low-scoring series in recent matchups, with the last six games going Under the total and producing just 34.2 PPG. If that weren’t enough, we get another chance to back this wonderful MNF trend: NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 16-2-1 (88.9%) Under as well, games producing just 35.4 PPG. Philly is 10-3-1 Under on MNF of late, and Seattle is 8-3 Under in its last 11 primetime games.
Let’s go UNDER 48.5 (+/-1.5) in Philadelphia-Seattle
For more system matches and key trends, check out the Week 15 NFL Analytics Report.
