NFL Betting Splits Systems Update for the 2026 Season:
With NFL opening week here, I continue my preseason prep work by getting ready the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems that we will be tracking and qualifying in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports this season. If you missed my college football article on this subject a couple of weeks ago, or haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last few years, these systems, and the splits for that matter, are quite popular with both VSiN Analysts and readers.
In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money handle and number of bets there are on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. For nearly every spot, I outline different systematic strategies for successfully using this DK Betting Splits Data, and I continue tracking and updating those systems so bettors can focus on the best ways to use the numbers. I am here to share the angles we’ll use to begin the 2026 NFL season.
Note that the qualifying plays for these angles are listed by VSiN on the NFL Analytics Reports each week and are updated two times each week, first on the initial Wednesday release, and second on the morning of every huge Sunday slate of games.
One key concept readers need to consider when using the systems: not all of them rely on fading the public majorities; some are built on the premise of getting behind the masses.
Personally, I believe that if these splits and systems have the best value or foundation for any major sport, the NFL is the one, as that is where the most wagering is done. And DraftKings is the perfect book to utilize this type of data from, as it is one of, if not the most public and high-profile sportsbook right now.
Before revealing the systems, here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus-.500. while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion, while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.
Also, if you’re curious as to why the game totals don’t add up to 285, the number of total games in any given NFL season nowadays, these records don’t include any ATS or totals ties, and any 50/50 splits are also treated as ties.
With all of this in mind, here are the systems we will be tracking and utilizing with updated language and records heading into the ’26 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 70-50 ATS (58.3%) record for +15 units and an ROI of +12.5%! There has been a lot of debate in recent years regarding the true value of home-field advantage, and it seems when bettors put less stock in it, they win.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-25, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 214-252 ATS (45.9%) for -63.2 units. With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 214-255 ATS (45.6%) for -66.5 units.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023-25, DK majority handle groups were actually quite sharp, going 121-102 ATS (54.3%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 133-109 ATS (55%) record for +13.1 units. We will be tracking this one for the first time this season, as it has some sense to it, with bettors winning more when avoiding the larger spread games.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2%. These are typically the heavy favorites that either look too obvious or are in a difficult situation that limits the motivation they are playing with. Fade these huge public plays in ’26.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 138-150 ATS (47.9%) and 137-148 ATS (48.1%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These performance numbers are both below the overall results and with these being the more high-profile games, I would expect that to continue.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is a 1-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 141-102 ATS (58%) record for +28.8 units over the last three seasons. Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to an 184-202 ATS (47.7%) mark. Even win record games have been about a 50/50 shot. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 82-52 ATS for 61.2% and +24.8 units of profit.
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 155-120 ATS (56.4%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2026.
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 62-54 ATS (53.5%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 90-80 (52.9%) record.
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units. To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super-majority percentage produced a similarly poor record, 46-59 (43.8%) for -18.9 units.
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 107-120 (47.1%) for -25 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
