Week 1 NFL Betting Trends:
VSiN Analytics NFL Report for Week 1
By VSiN Analytics
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +17.7 units, ROI: 39.3%, Grade 75)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+8.5 at JAX), NEW ORLEANS (+7 at DET), ARIZONA (+9.5 at LAC)
* Under the total is on a historic 13-2 surge in the Ravens-Colts series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-IND (o/u at 47.5)
* Denver: 8-1 to the Under in their last nine Monday Night Football games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
* Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 38-34 SU and 48-24 ATS (66.7%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+1.5 at TEN)
* Retread NFL head coaches have gone 19-35 ATS (35.2%) in non-conference matchups over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs ATL)
* Over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL-favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2%.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-8.5 vs CLE)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: GREEN BAY +1.5 at Minnesota (projections have line as GB -2.6)
NFL Week 1 Systems
These are angles that take into account line positioning, how the teams fared the previous year and transition into the follow-up season opener, and whether or not revenge is in play.
SYSTEM #1
Divisional home underdogs are 18-14-2 SU and 25-9 ATS (73.5%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +14.1 units, ROI: 41.4%, Grade 75)
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3 vs DAL)
SYSTEM #2
Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-16 SU and 3-17-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -15.6 units, ROI: -78%, Grade 75)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3 vs NE)
*WATCH FOR CINCINNATI vs TB (-3.5 CURRENTLY) and PITTSBURGH vs ATL (-3.5 CURRENTLY)*
SYSTEM #3
NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 56-24-5 ATS (70%) since 2004 (Win: +30.6 units, ROI: 38.3%, Grade 75)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+8.5 at JAX), NEW ORLEANS (+7 at DET), WASHINGTON (+5.5 at PHI)
SYSTEM #4
Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +17.7 units, ROI: 39.3%, Grade 75)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+8.5 at JAX), NEW ORLEANS (+7 at DET), ARIZONA (+9.5 at LAC)
SYSTEM #5
Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 54-30-5 ATS (64.3%) since 2000 (Win: +21 units, ROI: 25%, Grade 67)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-3 vs NE), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB), KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
SYSTEM #6
Divisional road/neutral underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on an 18-16 SU and 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%) run since 2013. (Win: +8.9 units, ROI: 26.2%, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5 at LAR), WASHINGTON (+5.5 at PHI), GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN), DENVER (+2.5 at KC)
SYSTEM #8
Teams that averaged better than 26 PPG in the prior season are play-against teams in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, showing a record of 42-26 SU but just 27-41 ATS (39.7%) when not matched up against a fellow high-scoring team since 2013 (AGAINST Win: +11.3 units, ROI: 16.7%, Grade 60)
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS (-3.5 vs SF), DETROIT (-7 vs NO), JACKSONVILLE (-8.5 vs CLE), BUFFALO (-1.5 at HOU), INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 vs BAL), DALLAS (-3 at NYG)
SYSTEM #9
Teams that allowed fewer than 20 PPG in the prior season are play-on teams in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, boasting a record of 30-10 SU and 27-13 ATS (67.5%) when not matched up against a fellow strong defensive team since 2017 (Win: +12.7 units, ROI: 31.8%, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-8.5 vs CLE), HOUSTON (+1.5 vs BUF), PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs WAS), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB)
SYSTEM #10
Teams that suffered through a season with a turnover differential of -0.9 or worse per game rebound nicely in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, going 11-8-1 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013 when not matched up against similar. (Win: +8.5 units, ROI: 44.7%, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+1.5 at TEN)
SYSTEM #11
Teams that suffered eight or more close losses in the prior season (8 points or fewer) are also a nice Week 1 option to back the next season, as they have rebounded with a 13-7 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) record since 2013 when not matched up against a similar team. (Win: +8.5 units, ROI: 44.7%, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+9.5 at LAC), KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
SYSTEM #12
Teams that dropped by 5 or more wins the prior season are a great rebound option for Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, showing a record of 21-17-1 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%) when not facing a similar team since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-7 vs NO), ARIZONA (+9.5 at LAC), WASHINGTON (+5.5 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB), KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
For the record, these games have also been huge Under the total opportunities, 28-11 (71.8%). (Win: +11.7 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 67)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-DET (o/u at 49.5), ARI-LAC (o/u at 47.5), WAS-PHI (o/u at 44.5), GB-MIN (o/u at 46.5), DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(451) NEW ENGLAND at (452) SEATTLE
* NEW ENGLAND is 20-29-2 ATS (40.8%) as an underdog since 2021
* SEATTLE is 26-18-1 ATS (59.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 vs NE)
(453) SAN FRANCISCO at (454) LA RAMS
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 29-18 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-LAR (o/u at 48.5)
(457) TAMPA BAY at (458) CINCINNATI
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-20 SU but 19-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 24-6 SU and 21-7 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY TAMPA BAY, 1 PLAY CINCINNATI
* TAMPA BAY is on 28-11 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CIN (o/u at 50.5)
(459) BALTIMORE at (460) INDIANAPOLIS
* BALTIMORE is 48-27 ATS (64%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 34-15 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-IND (o/u at 47.5)
(461) ATLANTA at (462) PITTSBURGH
* ATLANTA is 18-36 ATS (33.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* PITTSBURGH is 27-34 ATS (44.3%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 FADE ATLANTA, 1 FADE PITTSBURGH
* PITTSBURGH is 110-79 UNDER the total (58.2%) since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): ATL-PIT (o/u at 42.5)
(463) BUFFALO at (464) HOUSTON
* BUFFALO is 44-33 ATS (57.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 35-29 ATS (54.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 at HOU)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 40-25 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 44.5)
(465) CHICAGO at (466) CAROLINA
* CHICAGO is 37-44 ATS (45.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 34-49 ATS (41%) in road/neutral games since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-3 at CAR)
* CAROLINA is 24-32 ATS (42.9%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 25-35 ATS (41.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3 vs CHI)
(467) NY JETS at (468) TENNESSEE
* NY JETS are 25-50 ATS (33.3%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* NY JETS own ugly 12-53 SU and 21-42 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1.5 at TEN)
* TENNESSEE is on a 10-42 SU and 14-37-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 37-51-1 ATS (42%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (-1.5 vs NYJ)
(469) NEW ORLEANS at (470) DETROIT
* NEW ORLEANS is 42-26 ATS (61.8%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+7 at DET)
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-8 SU but 5-14 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
* DETROIT is 27-14-1 ATS (65.9%) at home since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-7 vs NO)
(471) ARIZONA at (472) LA CHARGERS
* ARIZONA is 35-26 ATS (57.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 35-27 ATS (56.5%) as an underdog since 2021
* LA CHARGERS are 41-53-1 ATS (43.6%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+9.5 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are on 32-15 Under the total surge in Sunday games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-LAC (o/u at 47.5)
(473) MIAMI at (474) LAS VEGAS
* MIAMI is 56-45 ATS (55.4%) as an underdog since 2014
* LAS VEGAS is 17-22 ATS (43.6%) as a favorite since 2019
* LAS VEGAS’ Kirk Cousins is 21-12 SU but 9-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS’ Kirk Cousins is 20-10 Over the total as a single-digit home favorite since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LVR (o/u at 41.5)
(475) WASHINGTON at (476) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 20-34 ATS (37%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 26-6 SU and 20-11 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs WAS)
(477) GREEN BAY at (478) MINNESOTA
* GREEN BAY is 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 24-13-1 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 24-13 SU but only 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is just 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS in his last 17 starts as a favorite
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 65-55 Over the total (54.2%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-MIN (o/u at 46.5)
(479) DALLAS at (480) NY GIANTS
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 34-7 SU and 30-11 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS is 24-20 ATS (54.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* NY GIANTS’ John Harbaugh is 14-16 SU but 22-8 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS DALLAS, 1 PLAY NY GIANTS
* NY GIANTS are 26-10 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 48.5)
(481) DENVER at (482) KANSAS CITY
* DENVER is 109-75 Under the total (59.2%) since 2015
* KANSAS CITY is 80-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday Night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 21-27-1 SU but 28-19-2 ATS (59.6%) dating back to 2017.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3 vs DAL)
Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 21-13 SU and 19-14-1 ATS (57.6%) record since 2019.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3 vs DAL)
Under the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 16-10 Under since 2016
NY Giants 11 straight Unders, scoring 10.7 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 48.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 17-17 SU and 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 34 tries.
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
MNF Team Trends
Denver 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS
Kansas City 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS since 2012
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DEN)
Under the total MNF Team Trends
Denver 8-1 Under in the last nine
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 17-11 ATS in the last 28
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3 at NYG)
Bad Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 13-21 SU and 11-21-2 ATS in the last 34
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 at KC)
NY Giants 5-26 SU in the last 31 (13-18 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+3 vs DAL)
Under the total Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 20-7 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
LA Rams 17-9 Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-LAR (o/u at 48.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(451) NEW ENGLAND at (452) SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games with New England
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 vs NE)
(453) SAN FRANCISCO vs (454) LA RAMS
Underdogs are 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the 49ers-Rams in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5 vs LAR)
Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this set as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-LAR (o/u at 48.5)
(455) CLEVELAND at (456) JACKSONVILLE
Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Browns-Jaguars series in Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+8.5 at JAX)
(457) TAMPA BAY at (458) CINCINNATI
Road teams are 6-3 SU and ATS in the TB-CIN set since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CIN)
(459) BALTIMORE at (460) INDIANAPOLIS
Under the total is on a historic 13-2 surge in the Ravens-Colts series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-IND (o/u at 47.5)
INDIANAPOLIS is on a 9-5 SU and 12-2 ATS run in the last 14 of the set as well
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 vs BAL)
(461) ATLANTA at (462) PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH has won and covered their last five matchups with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs ATL)
(463) BUFFALO at (464) HOUSTON
Home teams are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Bills-Texans series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs BUF)
Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 44.5)
(465) CHICAGO at (466) CAROLINA
Underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between CHI and CAR
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3 vs CHI)
(467) NY JETS at (468) TENNESSEE
NY JETS are 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+1.5 at TEN)
(469) NEW ORLEANS at (470) DETROIT
Over the total has converted in six of the last seven matchups between the Saints and the Lions
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NO-DET (o/u at 49.5)
Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+7 at DET)
(471) ARIZONA at (472) LA CHARGERS
Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the Cardinals-Chargers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-9.5 vs ARI)
(473) MIAMI at (474) LAS VEGAS
Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Dolphins-Raiders cross-country set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LVR (o/u at 41.5)
(475) WASHINGTON at (476) PHILADELPHIA
Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Commanders-Eagles divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
(477) GREEN BAY at (478) MINNESOTA
Road teams are on a 4-2 ATS run in the last three seasons of the GB-MIN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)
(479) DALLAS at (480) NY GIANTS
Over the total is 6-2 in the last four seasons of the Cowboys-Giants divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 48.5)
(481) DENVER at (482) KANSAS CITY
Under the total has converted in all six matchups between Denver and Kansas City in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 43.5)
Underdogs are also 2-7 SU but 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 at KC)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026, detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami), as well as retread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: BUF(-1.5)-HOU, BAL(-3.5)-IND, CLE(+8.5)-JAX, MIA(+3.5)-LVR(-3.5), ARI(+9.5)-LAC)
Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 166-186-10 ATS (47.2%). Road/Neutral games – 189-173-6 ATS (52.2%).
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 97-73 SU but 71-88-10 ATS (44.7%) over the last decade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, LAS VEGAS
One special angle on this: we find that rookie head coaches as small home favorites of -1 to -4 points in games #1-#9 are on a 14-25-2 ATS (35.9%) skid.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: ATL(+3.5)-PIT(-3.5), NYJ-TEN(-1.5), DAL-NYG(+3))
Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 59-52 ATS (53.2%). Road/Neutral games – 57-60 ATS (48.7%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 105-69 SU but just 69-94-11 ATS, for 42.3%! As dogs (or pick em), 85-180 SU and 131-128-6 ATS (50.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE
In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 37-55 ATS (40.2%) over the last decade, including 19-35 ATS (35.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 62-100 ATS (38.3%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs for different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).
(Games this week: MIA-LVR(-3.5), NYJ(+1.5)-TEN, GB-MIN(-1.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 45-32-1 Under the total (58.4%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively. Since 2017, the ATS record in September is 20-27 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-LVR (o/u at 41.5), NYJ-TEN (o/u at 39.5), GB-MIN (o/u at 46.5)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 27-54 SU and 31-50 ATS (38.3%).
System Match (FADE): NY JETS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new team
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 90-80 SU and 92-76-2 ATS (54.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, NY JETS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 38-34 SU and 48-24 ATS (66.7%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS
The last 24 such games are 16-8 Under the total (66.7%) as well.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-TEN (o/u at 39.5)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation of how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handel on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 70-50 ATS (58.3%) record for +15 units and an ROI of +12.5%! There has been a lot of debate in recent years in regards to the true value of home-field advantage and it seems when bettors put less stock in it, they win.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, NY JETS, CHICAGO, ARIZONA, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-25, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 214-252 ATS (45.9%) for -63.2 units. With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 214-255 ATS (45.6%) for -66.5 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, DALLAS, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023-25, DK majority handle groups were actually quite sharp, going 121-102 ATS (54.3%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 133-109 ATS (55%) record for +13.1 units. We will be tracking this one for the first time this season, as it has some sense to it, with bettors winning more when avoiding the larger spread games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, NY JETS, CHICAGO, LAS VEGAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2%. These are typically the heavy favorites that either look too obvious or are in a difficult situation that limits the motivation they are playing with.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 138-150 ATS (47.9%) and 137-148 ATS (48.1%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These performance numbers are both below the overall results, and with these being the more high-profile games, I would expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, LA RAMS, DALLAS, DENVER
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of BETTORS have gauged these games incredibly well over the last three years, going 155-120 ATS (56.4%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2026.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TB-CIN, NO-DET, GB-MIN, DAL-NYG
UNDER – SF-LAR, BAL-IND, CHI-CAR, ARI-LAC
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 62-54 ATS (53.5%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-LAR, ATL-PIT, BAL-IND
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units. To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NYJ-TEN, NO-DET, DEN-KC
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +1.5 (+4.1)
2. CAROLINA +3 (+1.4)
3. SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 (+1.3)
4. NY GIANTS +3 (+1.2)
5. CLEVELAND +8.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE -1.5 (+2.4)
2. PITTSBURGH -3.5 (+1.5)
3. SEATTLE -3 (+1.1)
4. PHILADELPHIA -5.5 (+0.8)
5. DETROIT -7 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +1.5 (+3.6)
2. TAMPA BAY +3.5 (+2.2)
3. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+2.1)
4. CAROLINA +3 (+1.4)
5. ARIZONA +9.5 (+1.1)
This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -2.5 (+2.4)
2. SEATTLE -3 (+1.9)
3. JACKSONVILLE -8.5 (+1.5)
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BAL-IND OVER 47.5 (+2.9)
2. CLE-JAX OVER 40.5 (+1.8)
3. BUF-HOU OVER 44.5 (+1.1)
4. NE-SEA OVER 44.5 (+1.0)
DEN-KC OVER 43.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-MIN UNDER 46.5 (-0.9)
2. TB-CIN UNDER 50.5 (-0.6)
3. WAS-PHI UNDER 44.5 (-0.5)
4. CHI-CAR UNDER 47.5 (-0.4)
NO-DET UNDER 49.5 (-0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +1.5 (+6.0)
2. CLEVELAND +8.5 (+2.1)
3. ARIZONA +9.5 (+1.9)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 (+1.1)
TAMPA BAY +3.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -7 (+2.2)
2. TENNESSEE -1.5 (+2.1)
3. BUFFALO -1.5 (+1.8)
4. PITTSBURGH -3.5 (+1.4)
5. BALTIMORE -3.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BAL-IND OVER 47.5 (+3.6)
2. SF-LAR OVER 48.5 (+1.6)
3. WAS-PHI OVER 44.5 (+1.3)
4. NE-SEA OVER 44.5 (+1.2)
5. ATL-PIT OVER 42.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-MIN UNDER 46.5 (-3.0)
2. CHI-CAR UNDER 47.5 (-1.2)
DAL-NYG UNDER 48.5 (-1.2)
4. ARI-LAC UNDER 47.5 (-1.0)
5. DEN-KC UNDER 43.5 (-0.7)
For more NFL Week 1 Best Bets, visit the exclusive VSiN NFL Week 1 Betting Hub.
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