NFL Survivor
The quest for perfection begins now. The only goal is to survive. And as simple as it seems to be able to do that, especially with no spreads to worry about, it is not an easy thing to do. Week 1 kicks off a new round of NFL Survivor contests around the world, including the Circa Survivor out here in Las Vegas. It takes a 20-0 record in Circa Survivor and any other contest that follows that format, but 18-0 is no picnic either, even if the holiday “week” wrinkles are not part of the rules.
In our NFL 2.0 Betting Guide, we talked about some Survivor strategies and also got some input from our friends at PoolGenius. Their suite of tools will come in very handy as the season goes along and we’re happy to have their insights once again this season. I also wrote up a Survivor “blueprint” for all 20 weeks of Circa Survivor to show the thought process heading into the season, which includes keeping as many holiday teams as possible for as long as possible. If your contest only has the traditional 18 weeks, your path is easier, but hardly simple. Remember, once you use a team, you cannot use that team again.
Each week, I’ll write up some considerations and ultimately a pick. Whether I win or lose in a given week, I’ll still do the article throughout the entirety of the season. I also won’t duplicate teams. I’ll play this like a real entry, whether it would be eliminated or not. Furthermore, the goal in the latter weeks of the season will be to share relevant advice based on who the remaining contestants have available.
I’ll be honest – I think Week 1 is one of the hardest weeks of the season. The personal shame and embarrassment of not surviving the first week is a major mental hurdle and it can absolutely lead to overthinking with all 32 teams at your disposal. While the goal is to go 1-0 each week, the goal is ultimately to go 18-0 or 20-0, so you have to think each and every week about how to best set yourself up to accomplish both of those things and that is why this contest is so difficult.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Chargers (-10) over Cardinals
Some historical data first. Favorites of 7+ points in Week 1 dating back to 2016 are 20-8 SU, so nobody is a lock this week. In fact, those teams are only 10-19 ATS, so sweats look like a thing. There were two such teams last season – Eagles and Broncos – and both won, but failed to cover. I, and many others, fell victim to the Broncos in 2024, as they were -8 and lost 16-10 to the Patriots.
There are three favorites of 7+ this week, depending on whether or not you consider the Lions among that group, as there are some 6.5s out there. Certainly the Chargers seem like the safest pick. The Cardinals have the chance to be historically bad and the Chargers are fairly healthy, something that you rarely come across over the course of the season. A lot of people will be picking on the Cardinals this season. According to the Season Planner tool at PoolGenius, the Cardinals’ highest win probability from now through Week 15 when they host the Jets is just 37%.
I can’t fault anybody for going this route and hoping for a dunk as opposed to a layup. But, this is where the challenge of a Survivor contest comes into play. The Chargers may very well be the best pick next week at home against the Raiders. The Seahawks will be the biggest favorite next week, but they play on Christmas. The Ravens are another good option for next week against the Saints, but we can all agree that the Saints should be better than both the Cardinals and Raiders.
So, remember, you can’t go 20-0 without going 1-0 first, but you can make going 20-0 a lot harder depending on the route you take.
PoolGenius has the Chargers with 77% win probability, highest of Week 1.
Lions (-7) over Saints
The Lions are a Thanksgiving team again this season, as they are every year. The goal of holding on to the holiday teams as long as possible is to have options. You may not want to use the Lions against the Bears as of right now, but when we get to Turkey Day, who knows what you’ll want to do. What if Caleb Williams is hurt? What if the Bears somehow stink and the Lions are the biggest favorite out there?
Detroit doesn’t use their starters in the preseason and that was a hindrance in Week 1 last season, as the Lions came up two scores short against the Packers. This is a different spot as a comfortable favorite against a team that has upside and potential, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. New Orleans didn’t really use Tyler Shough in the preseason either, opting to figure out who was the best QB2 option between Zach Wilson and Spencer Rattler.
PoolGenius has the Lions at 74% win probability, which is tied for their fourth-highest of the season, but, again, the context matters for those in a Circa Survivor-style pool.
Raiders (-3.5) over Dolphins
Do you want to put your Survivor life on the line backing Kirk Cousins? Admittedly, this is hella scary. But, there is a method to the madness. The Raiders only look to be favored as many as four times this season. This is going to be the optimal place to use them, at least as things currently stand. The Dolphins were a raging dumpster fire in the preseason and run the risk of being among the worst teams ever.
The thing about Survivor is that you will run out of good, trustworthy teams. To win, you have to take either 18 or 20 of the league’s 32 teams. Sometimes that means taking a risk like this. You can catch the Dolphins before they get settled in, if they get settled in at all. Klint Kubiak and Jeff Hafley are both first-year head coaches, but Kubiak seems to have a lot more at his disposal.
Cousins is not going to rate higher than many of the league’s starting QBs, but Malik Willis is one he has the chance to outperform, especially early on here. I’ll be honest – I like this option way more than I thought I would and if it means saving a team like the Chargers, Lions, Eagles, or Jaguars, it might be worth it.
The Raiders are at 64% win probability per PoolGenius.
Steelers (-3.5) over Falcons
This is a similar concept to the Raiders. Pittsburgh is a bit of a wild card early in the season, especially since Aaron Rodgers didn’t play in the exhibition period. Tua Tagovailoa did, though, and looked horrible in the process. While Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt know the Steelers very well from their time together in Cleveland, it’s a new-look Steelers team with Mike McCarthy at the helm.
Just like the Raiders, this may very well be the best time to deploy the Steelers. This is probably going to be a .500-ish team, so well-defined favorite roles are going to be few and far between. Of course, it is definitely possible that the Steelers exceed expectations and better spots present themselves. Week 8 against Cleveland is already a better one by win probability, but those division games can be tricky and the Steelers are coming back from Paris at the start of the week.
While I didn’t have the Steelers on my radar over the summer, the disastrous preseason for Tua paired with some of the pass rushers has them very high on my list. Unfortunately, there’s one problem – Pittsburgh plays on Black Friday, so they are part of the Thanksgiving slate and I don’t want to burn one of those 10 teams right away.
The Steelers are at 64% win probability per PoolGenius.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Pick
Jaguars (-8.5) over Browns
Jacksonville has a really tough schedule to start the season, as their next five games are against playoff teams plus the Bengals, who may have been a playoff team had Joe Burrow stayed healthy. Two of those games are in London. The Week 8 spot against the Colts off of the bye might be a good time to wait to use them, but this seems like a very big spot for the team to step up and start 1-0 with how daunting the schedule is for a while after this.
Deshaun Watson still stinks. While the non-QBs on the Cleveland roster all seem pretty good, Trevor Lawrence in Year 2 under Liam Coen has a lot of promise in my eyes. This is the optimal spot to use Jacksonville per PoolGenius, given that they have a 75% win probability and their only other 70+% spot is Week 12 against the Titans as of now. Meanwhile, the other big favorites in consideration all have better spots than what they have this week. Plus, there are the holiday considerations for some of them as well.
Jacksonville is not a holiday team. They enter the season very healthy. To me, they are the option that comes the closest to the total package. Big favorite, at home, no holidays, big QB advantage. Early in the season, you live with those things in Survivor, even if it doesn’t work out.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Pick: Jaguars
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