NFL Betting Systems to Avoid Traps in Week 3:
We have worked our way through two weeks of NFL betting, and it’s been an unusual season already. There have been some incredible games, some bewildering betting results, with seemingly two different games from half to half. Unfortunately, we are now dealing with some key injuries to quarterbacks that will affect the lines and results in the coming weeks. There are eight undefeated teams left, with four coming from the West divisions alone, as well as eight other teams that have yet to win, with returning playoff teams the Chargers and Texans perhaps the most surprising pair from this group.
Of course, the early results are just a small indicator of how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Typically, after two weeks of games, bettors are already forming distinctive opinions, and in turn, those setting the odds try to take advantage of this. I’m going to try to help you avoid some of those traps this week.
Regardless of what has happened in the first two weeks, historically, Week 3 has had a penchant for evening the scales, so tread cautiously this weekend, and perhaps have the courage to go against the grain in terms of what we’ve seen so far. Bettors typically reap the rewards by doing so.
I’m going to lay out some Week 3 systems that have thrived in recent years despite logic that might not seem all that sensible.
By the way, after the qualifying plays in my Week 1 system piece went 22-9-1 ATS, those in my Week 2 piece went 37-27 ATS (57.8%). Hopefully we see similar or even better results this time around.
Let’s take a look at 10 concepts you’ll want to consider as you prepare your wagers for this weekend, as I share the games that will be affected:
1) NFL teams that start 0-2 SU are 33-29 SU and 42-19-1 ATS (68.9%) against 1-1 teams in week 3 since 2010
A tidal wave of negativity gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they remain typically bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against the middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, the 1-1 team has shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know of any bettors who are actively looking to bet on teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s game, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.
The 0-2 teams in 2026, with their prospective matchups for Week 3 against 1-1 teams are as follows:
TENNESSEE (+3.5) at NY Giants
ATLANTA (+6) at Green Bay
With a typical amount of 3.9 games per season qualifying for this angle, we get a lesser number for 2026. Last year we had four qualifiers, and those teams went 2-2 SU and ATS. If percentages hold up, you would think that one of these two winless teams is about to get its first outright win. If you consider the lines of these games, the chances of the Atlanta going to 0-3 but possibly still covering are pretty strong. Tennessee nearly pulled off an impressive upset of Philly last week; can the Titans put it all together this week to take down a Giants team that will be without its starting quarterback?
2) NFL teams that start 0-2 SU and ATS are 20-22 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs since 2015
This system reeks of pure desperation by the 0-2 team. Surely, you’ve seen the stats indicating that only seven teams since 1980 have reached the postseason after an 0-3 start. That’s essentially only one team every 6 1/2 years. In other words, you can almost kiss the playoff chances goodbye for the teams below should they lose their Week 3 games. That’s enough to fuel even the worst team’s effort level. Last year, the motivation proved to be enough for Chicago as it upset Dallas as one of four qualifiers to go 2-2 ATS. Here are the winless SU and ATS teams playing as underdogs this week:
ATLANTA (+3.5) at Green Bay
WASHINGTON (+7) vs. Seattle
TENNESSEE (+3.5) at NY Giants
MIAMI (+11.5) vs. Kansas City
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. Houston
LA CHARGERS (+7) at Buffalo
TAMPA BAY (+1.5) vs. Minnesota
If history serves, expect at least five of the teams above to be very competitive this week, with perhaps three or four even threatening upsets. Recognize that bettors in past years have also faced this same difficulty of choosing to back a team that looks hopeless at this point, like the Chargers, for instance, and may be playing better teams, but for whatever reason, they do bring a solid effort in most cases. Note that one of these teams is a huge underdog at home and facing a 2-0 team that just played back-to-back home primetime games. The Dolphins have no chance against the Chiefs, right? Or do they?
3) NFL teams that start their seasons 1-1 SU are just 10-28 SU and 14-24 ATS (36.8%) when playing as underdogs of +3.5 or higher in Week 3 since 2016
Since NFL seasons are only 17 games, Week 3 can become a key crossroads for teams that split their first two games. The fact that the teams in this system are at least mid-level underdogs suggests that the experts behind the counter don’t think too much of them. This may not be a classic trap, but in some ways it is tricky because for a lot of the betting public, the jury is still out on 1-1 clubs, but those making the numbers know better, and since for most of the first three games we have seen underdogs thriving in most of the potent angles, this finally gives bettors the reason to back some solid favorites. Thus, be ready to play against these 1-1 underdogs in Week 3:
PITTSBURGH (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati
NY JETS (+6.5) at Detroit
ARIZONA (+8.5) at San Francisco
Oddsmakers seem to be forming an opinion early on Pittsburgh, the Jets and Arizona, as each is serving in a formidable underdog spot as we head to Week 3. Interestingly, for the Jets and Cardinals games, if not for Week 1 upset wins, would these lines be double digits for their games? Are they actually being overvalued?
4) NFL teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 28-17 SU and 29-16 ATS (64.4%) since 2015.
This absolutely goes against all logic when it comes to bettors and the choices they make. The teams that have allowed more than 6.5 yards per play have shown to be the league’s worst defensively in the first two games. Why in the world would any self-respecting bettor consider backing a team like this in the third game? Well, this is exactly how the sportsbooks entrap their clients. Typically, teams that were that bad defensively in the early going rebound, as they make adjustments and/or are motivated by the bad press about them. In many cases, the Week 3 matchup is also against a lesser opponent offensively than they faced in the first two games.
In 2023, only one team allowed more than 6.5 yards per play — the Chargers, who went into Minnesota in Week 3 and won 28-24 as one-point dogs. In 2024, three teams were allowing 6.5 yards per play or higher, but two of them played against each other. Only Philadelphia qualified on this system, and the Eagles went into New Orleans and upset the Saints 15-12 as 2.5-point dogs. Yes, you read that right: the eventual NFC champs were 2.5-point dogs to a team that eventually finished 5-12. For 2025, Chicago beat Dallas handily at home and New England, yes, the eventual AFC champ, qualified for the angle but lost to Pittsburgh. The Patriots would then go on and win their next 10 games. Two teams are allowing 6.5+ yards per play on defense:
NY GIANTS (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs. Houston
Interestingly, despite the brutal defensive start, the Giants, who will be without QB Jaxon Dart, still find themselves in the role of a mid-sized home favorite versus the Titans. At the same time, Indianapolis has faced two very stout offenses and now gets a reprieve vs. a 0-2 Houston team that scored just six points last week vs. Cincinnati. Is the right team favored?
5) The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by three points or more.
It’s obvious from this system and the last one that bettors shouldn’t put too much stock into the defensive performance of teams in the first two weeks. Oftentimes the numbers that a defense puts up in the early going are more a reflection of the opposing offenses they’ve faced. Those that played bad offenses have fared well, while those that faced the elite attacks are probably being misjudged. Again, this is a trap that many bettors fall into. After two weeks, the Patriots boast the league’s top defense. Unfortunately, they won’t fall into this system, as they are rightfully established as an underdog at Jacksonville.
SEATTLE (-7) at Washington
SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5) vs. Arizona
There was no qualifying game for this system last season. In fact, the last qualifier was the 2023 Cowboys, who traveled to Arizona for a Week 3 tilt. In that one, a seemingly dominant Dallas team was upset 28-16 as an 11.5-point favorite. Could our two NFC West frontrunners be in tricky spots this week? History says one of these big favorites will lose outright.
6) Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-9 SU and ATS (69%) since 2015.
So, this system wouldn’t be considered a “trap,” per se, but the reason I have included it here is to remind people that it is good offense that continues to rule the day in the NFL and is the more consistent factor in a team’s resume that should be relied upon. So far, two teams have been truly elite offensively, and to be perfectly honest, not a surprise, as they are two of the favorites for the AFC crown. The Bills lead the league with 7.1 YPP, followed by the Ravens at 6.8. These offenses are clicking, and yet the Ravens are only 1-1 after the unexpected home loss to the Saints on Sunday. Historically speaking, it makes no sense to step in front of the train until a key injury or other factor has a negative impact.
BUFFALO (-7) vs. LA Chargers
BALTIMORE (-3) at Dallas
These are a pair of very interesting games in that the Bills come off a tremendous stadium-opening offensive performance, a 41-31 takedown of Detroit, and Baltimore comes off an upset loss. Both the Ravens and Cowboys have lofty, perhaps unrealistic expectations for 2026. What does a 1-2 start mean for the loser?
7) Over the last decade, the highest-scoring teams in the league after two weeks, or those scoring more than 31 PPG, have gone just 16-18 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in Week 3 when not matched up against a similarly prolific offense.
This would seem to contradict the system in #6, but in actuality, it uncovers the teams that perhaps aren’t clicking as much offensively and might not deserve some of the points they have been scoring. Turnovers or failed fourth-down conversions, etc., can play a big part in why teams score points. According to angles 6 and 7, it is yards per play that should really be given the most consideration in determining the league’s best offenses. Be ready to potentially play against these teams in Week 3, with perhaps the exception of Buffalo, since the Bills are scoring more than 31 PPG after two weeks:
BUFFALO (-7) vs. LA Chargers
CAROLINA (-2.5) at Cleveland
KANSAS CITY (-11.5) at Miami
I have already given my thoughts on the Bills and Chiefs games, but Carolina is another team scoring very well in the early going, and experts are singing the praises of QB Bryce Young. However, going into the Dawg Pound for a game against a Browns team coming off a huge upset win might not be easy. Oddsmakers have applied even more pressure by making the Panthers 2.5-point favorites.
8) Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 28-24 SU but 19-31-2 ATS (38%) in Week 3.
These are the teams that oddsmakers tend to shade the lines heavily toward in Week 3, as they have put up the most sterling performances in the early going. Some of the teams may have actually warranted the respect. Others, though, may have been the beneficiary of turnover luck or favorable scheduling in the first two weeks to get to where they are. Recognize that if you’re backing a team that has won its first two games by a combined 25 points or more, you are probably paying too high a price and be prepared to see your team struggle to cover an overinflated point spread. For 2026, three teams have met the 2-0 criteria for outscoring teams by 25 points or more in the first two weeks: the Seahawks, 49ers and Raiders.
SEATTLE (-7) at Washington
SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5) vs. Arizona
LAS VEGAS (+3) at New Orleans
Admit it, you never thought you would see the Raiders on a list like this after two weeks. This system seems to question their legitimacy as much as any, especially with oddsmakers establishing them as underdogs at New Orleans. The defending champion Seahawks and the 49ers aren’t as much of a surprise, but there is additional pressure on them in Week 3 to cover big numbers.
9) Since 2015, Week 3 games involving ROAD FAVORITES and totals of 44 or higher have gone Under the total at a 27-9 (75%) rate.
For the most part, the teams that become road favorites this early in the season are those that have shown the ability to put up points in the first couple of weeks. As proof, the average total for these 36 games has been 47.8, and the 36 road favorites went into the games averaging 26.3 PPG. Both figures are much higher than the league averages of 45.2 and 22.8. However, it seems the pressure of winning on the road when favored slows these offenses significantly, as they have averaged just 20.8 PPG in this spot. Playing as road chalk takes a certain mindset in the NFL. It’s hard to establish that level of swagger in just two games. Don’t assume these big offensive performances will continue. If you’re curious, these road favorites still win in most cases, going 22-14 outright, but they are a dead heat point-spread-wise, 18-18 ATS. Here are the games to consider if you believe in this Under trend for Week 3:
UNDER the total in KANSAS CITY-MIAMI (46.5)
UNDER the total in BALTIMORE-DALLAS (52.5)
UNDER the total in LA RAMS-DENVER (45.5)
UNDER the total in PHILADELPHIA-CHICAGO (44.5)
As I detailed earlier, these road-favored offenses typically drop by about a TD per game in Week 3 after hot starts. There are some tough environments on this list that these superior road teams are going to encounter. Don’t expect the games to be easy for any of the four, although historically, three would win and two would cover in lower-scoring games.
10) Since 2016, Week 3 games involving any team scoring 15.0 PPG or fewer in their first two outings have Over the total at a 29-15 (65.9%) rate.
Clearly this IS a trap, as the league’s lowest-scoring teams in the first two weeks find a way to go Over the total in Week 3 nearly two-thirds of the time over the last decade. Public bettors have probably already soured on these teams’ offenses, as those represented by this trend have averaged just 11.6 PPG in the first two games. Well, Week 3 has a way of changing that as they put up 22.3 PPG in these following games, nearly doubling their prior output. On totals averaging 42.9, the games in this system have averaged 47.7 PPG of production. That’s a pretty sizable cushion, and for the record, these lower-scoring teams are also 27-20-1 ATS, with two games having matched both low-scoring teams. Watch for these games in Week 3:
OVER the total in ATLANTA-GREEN BAY (43.5)
OVER the total in CINCINNATI-PITTSBURGH (42.5)
OVER the total in TENNESSEE-NY GIANTS (40.5)
OVER the total in NEW ENGLAND-JACKSONVILLE (45.5)
OVER the total in KANSAS CITY-MIAMI (46.5)
OVER the total in LA CHARGERS-BUFFALO (50.5)
OVER the total in LA RAMS-DENVER (45.5)
With a historical average of about 4.4 qualifying plays per year on this high-scoring angle, we have an unusually high number of seven teams scoring 15 PPG or less in their first two outings. Making matters more interesting, three of the seven teams have even won a game already. Since the teams in this system have actually produced double their average in scoring in these Week 3 games, can you see these seven teams doing the same and producing shootouts this week?
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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