The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Under the total is 15-2 (88.2%) in the last 17 meetings between the White Sox and Royals at Kauffman Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-KC (o/u at 8)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 168-174 (-78.94 units, ROI: -23.1%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+118 at PHI), LA DODGERS (-131 vs SD)

Trend: COL is 39-24 (+23.36 units) at home against opponents with a <= 0.575 win pct with starter Kyle Freeland since the start of the  2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+162 vs AZ)

* NY Mets letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Philadelphia: 12-26 record (32.4%) for -21.09 units, ROI: -55.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+119 at TEX)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 216-171 for +4.75 units (ROI: 1.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+109 at LAD), NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-137 vs TB), NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-132 vs TB), LA ANGELS (-108 at ATH), WASHINGTON (+129 at DET)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 66-57 for -10.24 units for an ROI of -8.3%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs MIL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 92-138 for -49.49 units and an ROI of -21.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-193 vs CIN), LA DODGERS (-131 vs SD), BALTIMORE (-123 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 at KC), HOUSTON (+113 at SEA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, with less than a week left, they are 154-241 start for -39.05 units (-9.9% ROI) after losing about 49 units over the last three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+158 at ATL), COLORADO (+162 vs AZ), ATHLETICS (-111 vs LAA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 116-59 for -14.92 units, ROI -8.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-193 vs CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs MIA), ARIZONA (-198 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was  2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the  2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 43-26 start for -15.62 units, and an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-193 vs CIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The  2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 318-385 for -24.56 units, ROI -3.5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+118 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+109 at LAD), HOUSTON (+113 at SEA), LA ANGELS (-108 at ATH), NY METS (+110 at TEX)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in  2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 256-181 for +42.19 units, an ROI of +9.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-123 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-222 start for -53.41 units (ROI -13.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 83-106 for -22.47 units and a solid ROI of -11.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY GAME 1 (+114 at NYY)
3+ games – CLEVELAND (+108 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-131 vs SD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 167-191 for +2.74 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+169 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (-111 vs LAA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 540-430 for +47.52 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the  2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 268-198 for +27.44 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 at KC)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 468-397 but for -90.51 units and an ROI of -10.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-126 vs TB), PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs MIL), BOSTON (-130 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-137 vs HOU), ATHLETICS (-111 vs LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 483-432 record for +42.54 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 at KC), ARIZONA (-198 at COL), SAN DIEGO (+109 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,245-2,128 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -280.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs MIA), DETROIT (-157 vs WSH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2315-2908 (44.3%) for -278.24 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 342-352 run (+14.43 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (-111 vs LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value when looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 223-169 (+28.07 units, ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+108 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+109 at LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 281-182 in their last 463 tries (+46.02 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+108 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 168-174 (-78.94 units, ROI: -23.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+118 at PHI), LA DODGERS (-131 vs SD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 654-655 for +8.14 units, good for +0.6% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI +169 (+21 diff), ST LOUIS +143 (+10)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -156 (+31 diff), SEATTLE -137 (+15)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) ST LOUIS (76-80) at (902) PITTSBURGH (79-77)
Trend: Over the total is 53-38-2 (+11.20 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-PIT (o/u at 7)

(903) MILWAUKEE (98-58) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (86-70)
Trend: MIL is 14-5 (+7.08 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at PHI)

(905) CINCINNATI (72-84) at (906) ATLANTA (92-64)
Trend: CIN is 50-51 (-21.55 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+1.5 at ATL)

(909) ARIZONA (82-74) at (910) COLORADO (57-99)
Trend: COL is 39-24 (+23.36 units) at home against opponents with a <= 0.575 win pct with starter Kyle Freeland since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+162 vs AZ)

(911) SAN DIEGO (87-69) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (96-60)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10-1 (+11.70 units) when starter Michael King is an Underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 8.5)

(915) TORONTO (77-80) at (916) BALTIMORE (76-81)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 19-23 (-5.40 units) in his last 42 starts vs AL East opponents
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-123 vs TOR)

(917) CLEVELAND (81-75) at (918) BOSTON (84-72)
Trend: Under the total is 17-5-1 (+11.45 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS (o/u at 6.5)

(919) TAMPA BAY (95-60) at (920) NEW YORK-AL (89-66) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams have a 57-43 record in his last 100 starts versus opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-132 vs TB)

(921) CHICAGO-AL (80-76) at (922) KANSAS CITY (67-89)
Trend: KC is 13-31 (-17.71 units) vs left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs CWS)

(923) HOUSTON (77-79) at (924) SEATTLE (73-83)
Trend: HOU is 11-2 (+10.45 units) as a shorter road underdog (+105 to +125 range) with starter Cristian Javier in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 37-15 (+12.47 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-137 vs HOU)

Trend: UNDER the total is 33-14-5 (+17.65 units) when SEA is a home favorite within -111 to -180 line range with starter Logan Gilbert since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 7)

(925) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-96) at (926) ATHLETICS (61-95)
Trend: Over the total is 44-28-3 (+13.20 units) in ATH HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 9.5)

(927) WASHINGTON (73-84) at (928) DETROIT (74-83)
Trend: WSH is 48-31 (+8.51 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at DET)

(929) NEW YORK-NL (71-85) at (930) TEXAS (78-78)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 13-18 (-10.82 units) when he starts in home games vs opponents with losing records in last 3+ seasons
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 12-25 (-11.73 units) when he starts vs NL East opponents in his career
Trends Match (FADE): TEXAS (-133 vs NYM)

(931) MINNESOTA (73-84) at (932) SAN FRANCISCO (65-92)
Trend: Over the total is 47-25-7 (+19.50 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend: OVER the total is 18-10-2 (+6.90 units) when starter Taj Bradley faces NL opponents since the start of the  2023 season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SF (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: SF is 36-59 (-9.59 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+112 vs MIN)

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Tue 9/22-Thu 9/24
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 32-10 (76.2%, +24.04 units) when hosting the Chicago White Sox
— The ROI on this trend is 75.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs CWS)

Trend: Under the total is 15-2 (88.2%) in the last 17 meetings at Kauffman Stadium as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-KC (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, NY YANKEES GAME 2, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not TOO MANY of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ARIZONA at COL (-198 CURRENTLY)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, TEXAS, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES GAME 1, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES GAME 2, SEATTLE

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
LETDOWN after series vs. DETROIT: 11-26 (29.7%) -15.08 units, ROI: -40.8%    
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125 at KC)

NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-26 (32.4%) -21.09 units, ROI: -55.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+119 at TEX)

PHILADELPHIA
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 19-20 (48.7%) -5.27 units, ROI: -13.5%     
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs MIL)

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