NFL Championship Sunday Sharp Report

By
Josh Appelbaum
-
381

Championship Sunday is finally here.

So far this postseason, we've seen favorites go 6-4 ATS and unders go 6-4 as well. When it comes to betting the AFC and NFC Title games, we've seen a distinct edge toward home favorites and overs. Since 2003, AFC and NFC Championship game home favorites are 17-13 ATS (57%) and 22-8 (73%) straight up. The over is 22-11 (67%) over that span.

 

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Here are the updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM

Chiefs %plussign% 120

Rams %plussign% 200

49ers %plussign% 450

Bengals %plussign% 800

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

Until then, let's examine where the smart money is leaning for both of today's big games…

 

3 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

The Bengals (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS) took down the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites and then upset the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) crushed the Steelers 42-21 in the Wild Card round, covering as 11.5-point home favorites, and then outlasted the Bills 42-36 in an overtime thriller, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Chiefs at home after their instant classic win over Buffalo. This lopsided betting has pushed Kansas City from -6.5 to -7. Some shops briefly reached 7.5 and got hit with Bengals hook money, dropping the line back down to 7. The Chiefs will be a popular teaser play (-7 to -1), which goes through the key number of 3. At this point, the Bengals offer buy-low value as a road contrarian dog with an inflated line, especially if you can pick out a book hanging %plussign% 7.5. There's some familiarity here, with the Bengals upsetting the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Cincinnati also has a rest advantage, playing on Saturday afternoon while the Chiefs played Sunday night. 

Sharps have also hit this over, steaming the total from 53.5 to 54.5. Some books opened as low as 50.5 and immediately adjusted upward. The forecast calls for low 40s with mild 5 MPH winds and clear skies, perfect weather for football. Kansas City is 7-0 to the over their last seven games. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically leaned toward road teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (59.1%). 

 

6:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) have won outright as road dog in both postseason games thus far, upsetting Dallas 23-17 as 3.5-point dogs and then shocking the Packers 13-10 as 6-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) beat the Cardinals 34-11 in their playoff opener, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then upset the defending champion Bucs 30-27 as 2.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Rams on a short number at home. However, all the juice is leaning on the 49ers (%plussign% 3.5 at -115 or -120). This signals liability on San Francisco plus the hook, along with a possible fall down from 3.5 to 3. Playoff divisional dogs are 8-6 ATS (57%) over the past decade. Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS (60%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog. The 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season, winning 31-10 in Week 10 and 27-24 in Week 18. The 49ers have a rest advantage, playing on Saturday while the Rams played on Sunday. 

We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has been bet down from 47 to 45.5 despite a majority of public bettors taking the over. When the total falls at least a half-point in the playoffs, the under is 35-30 (54%) over the past decade. Carl Cheffers, the lead red, has trended slightly to road teams (51.2% ATS) and overs (50.2%) in his career. 

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