NFL Coach of the Year 2025 Odds, History, and Predictions

NFL Coach of the Year 2025

There isn’t a direct correlation between Most Improved Team and AP Coach of the Year, but it isn’t a bad place to start. When it comes to handicapping the Coach of the Year market, you’re either looking for a new guy or a recent hire who spearheads a huge turnaround. Sometimes it will be the coach of the team with the best record in the NFL.

The huge turnaround factor was on display last season for sure, as Kevin O’Connell beat out NFC North rival Dan Campbell by 70 points and five first-place votes to win the award. Even though O’Connell’s Vikings were very good in his first year back in 2022 with a five-win improvement year-over-year, the fact that he spearheaded a seven-win improvement from 2023 to 2024 with Sam Darnold at QB gained him a lot of favor in the minds of the voters. By the way, O’Connell was only sixth back in 2022, which seems quite disrespectful.

While Campbell’s Lions tied for the best record in the NFL, Detroit went from 12-5 to 15-2, so they were already viewed as a good team, whereas people were very skeptical of the Vikings. And, again, to do it with a guy like Darnold, who was third in Comeback Player of the Year voting, made O’Connell’s performance stand out that much more.

Before we get the best bets from VSiN hosts and contributors for the Coach of the Year market, let’s look at the last 10 winners and the attributes that allowed them to win.

Kevin O’Connell (2024)
Seven-win improvement (7-10 to 14-3); did it with Sam Darnold, who set extreme career-highs in yards, touchdowns, completions, completion percentage, and more

Kevin Stefanski (2023, 2020)
2023: Four-win improvement (7-10 to 11-6); five different starting quarterbacks
2020: First-year head coach (6-10 to 11-5); Browns first playoff appearance since 2002

Brian Daboll (2022)
First-year head coach; from 4-13 (Joe Judge) to 9-7-1; Giants first playoff appearance, first winning record since 2016

Mike Vrabel (2021)
Followed up 11-5 season with a 12-5 record; got zero votes in 2020; second straight division title and third straight playoff appearance

John Harbaugh (2019)
14-2 record, +249 in point differential; four-win improvement over 2018

Matt Nagy (2018)
First-year head coach; from 5-11 to 12-4 (!); Bears first playoff appearance, division title since 2010

Sean McVay (2017)
First-year head coach; from 4-12 to 11-5 (!); Rams first playoff appearance since 2004, first division title since 2003; Jared Goff first year as full-time starter

Jason Garrett (2016)
13-3 record, nine-win improvement over 2015; Dak Prescott rookie year

Ron Rivera (2015)
Eight-win improvement; 15-1 best record in NFL

So, we’ve got success, significant improvement year-over-year, and adversity, which we aren’t really able to handicap before the season, as the main ingredients for the Coach of the Year.

Now, let’s turn it over to our VSiN hosts and contributors for their best bets in the Coach of the Year market.

Matt Brown

Sean Payton (25/1) 

I’m higher than most on the Broncos this season. I have an AFC West ticket on them and played Over 9.5 wins. I was wrong about Bo Nix. He was a good NFL quarterback last season, especially for a rookie. The offensive line is good. There’s playmakers at WR, TE, and now at RB with RJ Harvey. The defense has studs at every level with Surtain, Bonitto, Franklin-Myers, Greenlaw, and Jones. Their schedule lands them games to close out the season at the Chiefs on Christmas and at home (in cold weather) against the Chargers. A couple marquee wins that could win them the division and perhaps give them as many as 12-13 wins. And that would likely be plenty for Payton to take the award.

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Dustin Swedelson

Liam Coen (13/1)

There are two consistent themes from recent winners of the Coach of the Year Award: First-year head coaches and the maximizing of quarterback play.

Four of the last eight NFL Coach of the Year winners were first-year head coaches. We haven’t had one since Brian Daboll in 2022. Meaning that from 2017-2022 four of the six winners during that span were in their first season on the job. With non-first year leaders Kevin O’Connell and Kevin Stefanski securing this accolade the last two seasons, it feels like we should be in store for one of the 2025’s class of new leaders to take home this hardware. 

None of the men who have won this award were handed the talent Liam Coen inherits under center in Trevor Lawrence. You would be hard pressed to find another generational talent at QB in NFL history who has received worse head coaching to start a career (Urban Meyer 2-11, Doug Pederson 22-29)

Coen has been a hyped offensive name in football circles for years since learning under Sean McVay in Los Angeles. In his one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, he led Baker Mayfield to career highs in completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Mayfield and Lawrence may have both been #1 overall picks, but Lawrence’s physical skill set is on another level compared to his Buccaneer counterpart. 

If Coen can do that with Tampa Bay’s signal caller, he could be what O’Connell was to Sam Darnold a season ago. And we all saw how that story ended in this market.

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Adam Burke

Dan Campbell (22/1)

Most of the success of the Lions offense has been attributed to Ben Johnson, but he’s now the head coach in Chicago. Campbell has to head into this season with two new coordinators, as his former OC and DC are both priced lower in the Coach of the Year market than he is.

But, what if the Lions are just really good? New OC John Morton is cut from the Jon Gruden/Sean Payton coaching tree and those guys have had some very productive offenses. New DC Kelvin Sheppard was a linebackers coach under Aaron Glenn and got into coaching shortly after his retirement from the NFL at his alma mater, LSU. He’s only 37, so he has a direct line to the players and obviously knows what they are going through.

So, Campbell’s coordinators should be just fine with a lot of similar plays and concepts. The Lions have won 27 games the last two seasons on his watch and still have a lot of the same personnel, despite the changes on the sideline. While this award usually has a bias towards newer coaches, another terrific season from the Lions without attribution to Johnson or somebody other than Campbell may push the voters to give him a ton of consideration, especially if Detroit is able to survive the NFC North gauntlet.

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Pauly Howard

Sean Payton (14/1); Raheem Morris, Todd Bowles (40/1)

Denver could be one of the best teams in the league and Nix can take a big step in becoming a franchise QB. Atlanta and Tampa Bay both have the chance to win the division and get to 11 wins. Philadelphia and Washington have difficult schedules and the North is brutal, which could help their chances in getting noticed.

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Will Hill

Jonathan Gannon (20/1)

In a wide-open NFC West, the Cardinals have odds in the 4-1 range. If the Cardinals were to win the division, Jonathan Gannon would be squarely in the mix for this award, and this bet would nearly 5x the payout as the NFC West option. With an offense that was seventh in the league last year in yards per play on offense, the defense getting a bump could push this team into a legitimate playoff contender. With a draft that focused almost exclusively on defense, additions of Walter Nolen, Will Johnson, Jordan Burch, as well as free agent pass rusher Josh Sweat, could Gannon be re-creating the stout defense he had as a coordinator in Philadelphia? The Cardinals have the talent to compete for this division, and they also have a schedule conducive to getting off to a hot start. Rookie quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, as well as Bryce Young, Sam Darnold and Anthony Richardson (or Daniel Jones) are all on the schedule early in the first six games. The Cardinals were 6-4 last year before fading late, and they have the pieces to finish the job this year. Coach of the Year usually goes to a coach who gets his team to the playoffs after missing it in the previous season. Gannon checks a lot of boxes, and is very live at 20-1. 

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Zachary Cohen

Mike Vrabel (+900) / Liam Coen (14/1) / Dave Canales (18/1) 

I’m taking three stabs at Coach of the Year this year, and I’m rolling with the coaches of three of the four teams I mentioned in my feature on sleepers. 

I see Ben Johnson is listed as the favorite, and I do expect Chicago to be an improved team in 2025. That’s why the Bears were on that list. The problem is that Chicago plays in a loaded division. So, while there’s plenty of potential for a turnaround, I don’t think the path to success is as clear as it is for the other three teams. 

Instead, I’ll take Vrabel, Coen and Canales, who will all lead talented teams that were miserable a year ago. If any of them can reach nine or 10 wins, they’ll be treated like heroes. 

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Jensen Lewis

Ben Johnson +650

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Sean Green 

Zac Taylor 50/1