I’ll start this year’s analysis exactly how I started last year’s – there isn’t a direct correlation between Most Improved Team and AP Coach of the Year, but it isn’t a bad place to start. When it comes to handicapping the Coach of the Year market, you’re either looking for a new guy or a recent hire who spearheads a huge turnaround. Sometimes it will be the coach of the team with the best record in the NFL.
The Patriots did the “worst to first” thing, something that also happened with the Bears, but Ben Johnson only got one first-place vote, while Mike Vrabel got 19. He edged out Liam Coen, another first-year head coach, as the Jaguars HC got 16 first-place votes. It was a very competitive season for the award, even if Vrabel and Coen combined for 35 of the 50 first-place votes. Eventual Super Bowl champion Mike Macdonald got the last laugh after getting eight first-place votes.
The huge turnaround factor was on display last season for sure, as Vrabel led a 10-win improvement for the Patriots and took them to the Super Bowl. Speaking of direct correlations, it certainly helps for the best player on the team to improve dramatically, especially if it comes as a little bit of a surprise. Drake Maye, in just his second season, more than doubled his TD output and was runner-up for the MVP award. Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold. Kevin Stefanski and Joe Flacco. Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones. The coach and the starting QB are often joined at the hip here.
There are 10 new head coaches this season and not all of them are joining teams that had bad records, as is often the case when there’s a change in leadership. That should make for a lot of candidates and a lot of interesting betting options.
Let’s look at the last 10 winners and the attributes that allowed them to win.
Mike Vrabel (2025)
10-win improvement (4-13, 14-3); first-year head coach with the Patriots, as they scored 490 points, the most since 2012.
Kevin O’Connell (2024)
Seven-win improvement (7-10 to 14-3); did it with Sam Darnold, who set extreme career-highs in yards, touchdowns, completions, completion percentage, and more
Kevin Stefanski (2023, 2020)
2023: Four-win improvement (7-10 to 11-6); five different starting quarterbacks
2020: First-year head coach (6-10 to 11-5); Browns’ first playoff appearance since 2002
Brian Daboll (2022)
First-year head coach; from 4-13 (Joe Judge) to 9-7-1; Giants first playoff appearance, first winning record since 2016
Mike Vrabel (2021)
Followed up 11-5 season with a 12-5 record; got zero votes in 2020; second straight division title and third straight playoff appearance
John Harbaugh (2019)
14-2 record, +249 in point differential; four-win improvement over 2018
Matt Nagy (2018)
First-year head coach; from 5-11 to 12-4 (!); Bears’ first playoff appearance, division title since 2010
Sean McVay (2017)
First-year head coach; from 4-12 to 11-5 (!); Rams first playoff appearance since 2004, first division title since 2003; Jared Goff first year as full-time starter
Jason Garrett (2016)
13-3 record, nine-win improvement over 2015; Dak Prescott rookie year
So, we’ve got success, significant improvement year-over-year, and adversity, which we aren’t really able to handicap before the season, as the main ingredients for the Coach of the Year.
