NFL Division Preview: AFC East

By
Dave Tuley
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NFL Division Preview: AFC East

The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East divisional crown last year with a record of 13-3. They finished 4.5 games ahead of the Miami Dolphins (9-8) with the half-game due to the no-contest in Week 17 when safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field and went into cardiac arrest. The margin could have been five games if the Bills had won that game, but it actually wasn’t that easy. After Week 11, the Bills and Dolphins were tied for first place at 7-3, with the Jets and Patriots just a game back at 6-4, as all four were in the playoff hunt. The Bills took the lead for good when they blew out the Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 13, and the 49ers blew out the Dolphins.

 

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The rest of the division played sub-.500 ball down the stretch while the Bills coasted to their third straight division title. DraftKings has the Bills as +120 favorites to win their fourth in a row, but the race is expected to be even tighter this year with the New York Jets bringing in Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are the second choice at +270, with the Dolphins at +300. Even with coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots haven’t been the same since Tom Brady and are the longest shot in the division at +800.
 

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been among the NFL’s elite teams the past four years under coach Sean McDermott, winning at least 10 games each season, including when it was just a 16-game schedule. However, they haven’t made it back to the Super Bowl in the last 30 years since losing four straight from 1990-1993. DraftKings has Buffalo as the 5-1 second choice (behind the Chiefs) to win the AFC and 9-1 third choice to win the Super Bowl. Their Over/Under Season Win Total is set at 10.5. 

Offense

The Bills had the No. 2 offense in the NFL at 394.9 yards per game and No. 3 in scoring at 27.7 points per game. QB Josh Allen was again a one-man wrecking crew as he threw for 4,283 yards and 35 TDs while adding 631 rushing yards and another 8 TDs. He ranked No. 2 in QBR at 71.4. Devin Singletary led the Bills with 819 rushing yards, but he signed with Houston as a free agent in March. James Cook (the No. 3 rusher as Allen was No. 2) is expected to take over the starting role but is also joined by free agent Damien Harris from New England.

Allen’s No. 1 target was again WR Stefon Diggs (108 receptions, 1,429 yards, 11 TDs), but also spread the ball around to Gabe Davis (836 yards, 7 TDs) and Isiah McKenzie (423 yards, 4 TDs) as well as TE Dawson Knox (517 yards, 6 TDs). Diggs was a no-show at minicamp practice in June that was later called an excused absence by McDermott. The situation will certainly be monitored closely when regular training camp opens.

Defense

The main focus is always on the high-powered offense, but the Buffalo defense continued to hold up its end of the bargain by allowing just 19.1 points per game (ranked No. 4 in the league) and just 319.4 yards per game (No. 7).

Former Denver LB Von Miller tied for the team lead with 8 sacks (along with DE Greg Rousseau) despite playing only 12 before suffering an ACL injury. He’s expected to be ready to return by the season opener. Tremaine Edmunds led the Bills with 102 total tackles (just ahead of Matt Milano’s 99). Not many people know this, but safety Damar Hamlin finished third on the team with 91 tackles and might have been the leader if not for having his season cut short by his cardiac arrest. Hamlin is also on track to return (and is the clear favorite for Comeback Player of the Year if he does), but Edmunds left for Chicago via free agency.  

Outlook

The Bills have fallen short of expectations in the last few years, but that’s just in the playoffs. We’re not sure if they can get over the hump against the other top contenders in the AFC, most notably the Chiefs, but the Over 10.5 looks like the play again since we only have to concern ourselves with their regular-season performance. McDermott and Allen seem to have the winning formula in that regard.

Recommendation: Over 10.5 wins.

 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins broke from the gate fast last year with wins over the Patriots, Ravens and Bills to take the early lead in the AFC East. However, the win over Buffalo was controversial. The Dolphins received criticism for QB Tua Tagovailoa not being removed from the game after suffering an apparent concussion (the team claimed it was just a back injury). Those issues kept popping up during the season, but the Dolphins were still tied for the AFC East lead at 8-3 before losing five straight down the stretch. They still made the playoffs but were ousted in a 34-31 loss to the Bills (though they covered as 14-point road underdogs). DraftKings has Miami at 3-1 to win the division, the 11-1 co-fourth choice (with the Jets and Ravens) to win the AFC and 22-1 to win the Super Bowl with an Over/Under Season Win Total of 9.5.

Offense

WR Tyreek Hill came over from the Chiefs and had an immediate impact as he elevated the Dolphins’ offense from the start of the season. He ended up with 119 catches for 1,710 yards and 7 touchdowns, and his presence led to Jaylen Waddle also putting up WR1-type numbers with 75 catches for 1,356 yards and 8 TDs. Most of the success came with Tagovailoa, who really stepped up his game in his third season with 3,548 passing yards and 25 TDs with just 8 INTs in 13 games. Teddy Bridgewater also played in five games but left via free agency, with former New York Jet Mike White expected to pick up the important backup role in case Tua continues to have concussion issues.

The Dolphins had a complementary ground game with a running-back-by-committee led by Raheem Mostert’s 891 yards, with support from Jeff Wilson Jr., Chase Edmonds and others. Edmonds left for Tampa Bay, but Mostert and Wilson (who both played for coach Mike McDaniel in San Francisco) are back, and there have been rumors about the Dolphins being in the hunt to sign former Viking Dalvin Cook.

There’s a chance the offense could be more potent than last year when they averaged 23.8 points a game (ranked No. 11 in the league) and 357.1 yards (No. 8) despite falling off down the stretch. Again, Tagovailoa’s health probably holds the key.  

Defense

The Miami defense didn’t fare as well as the offense last season, allowing 24.1 points per game (ranked No. 24 in the league) and 342.6 yards (No. 19). In 2020 and 2021, the Dolphins hid their defensive deficiencies with a lot of takeaways, but those dropped off last year. A contributing factor was the lack of a pass rush as sacks dropped from 49 to 41, with LB Melvin Ingram leading with only six.

Miami should see improvement on the defensive side of the ball with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He failed as a head coach in Denver, but sometimes great coordinators don’t make great head coaches, and he should excel back in this role. The Dolphins also traded with the Rams for CB Jalen Ramsey, and his taking the WR1s should help Xavien Howard on the other corner.

Outlook

When healthy, the Dolphins’ offense can score with anyone. However, any Miami futures are risky with Tagovailoa’s concussion history, even if the defense improves. As we’ve seen, once a player has concussions, it makes it easier to have more. The chances of Tua playing a complete season are much lower than others, so I can’t see risking anything on division, conference or Super Bowl futures. If they make the playoffs, that’s when I’d consider them live. The same goes for their Over on the Season Win Total; it would have to be Under 9.5 or pass.

Recommendation: Under 9.5 wins.

 

New York Jets

The Jets had a roller-coaster of a 2022 season. Despite having one of the worst offenses in the NFL, they had one of the best defenses that carried them to a 7-4 record and looked like a playoff team. Then, they lost their last six games to finish 7-10. The consensus was they were a quarterback away from being a legit contender, so they traded for Aaron Rodgers. DraftKings has them as the +270 second-choice (behind the Bills) to win the AFC East, the 11-1 co-fourth choice (with the Dolphins and Ravens) to win the AFC and 18-1 to win the Super Bowl with an Over/Under Season Win Total of 9.5.

Offense

Despite the strong start to last season, the Zach Wilson experiment failed, and the Jets also tried Mike White and Joe Flacco to turn the offense around. Only Flacco had more TDs than INTs, and that was 5-3. The Jets were held without a touchdown in their last three games (15 points total) to finish at 17.4 points per game (ranked No. 29 in the league).

There was talent on the offensive side of the ball, so Rodgers is expected to right the ship. Despite the poor QB play, Garrett Wilson led the team with 83 catches for 1,103 yards to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Corey Davis also returns, plus the Jets added former Packers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to make Rodgers comfortable, as well as Mecole Hardman Jr. from the Chiefs.

RB Breece Hall was contending with Wilson for Offensive Rookie of the Year with 463 rushing yards and an impressive 5.8 yards per carry in just seven games before suffering a season-ending ACL injury in October. If he returns as expected, the Jets will again have a solid 1-2 combo with Michael Carter to take pressure off Rodgers.

Defense

The Jets’ defense allowed just 18.6 points per game (ranked No. 2 in the league) and only 311.1 yards (No. 4), so they deserved to have a better record. A lot of the hype went to rookie CB Sauce Gardner as he won Defensive Rookie of the Year, but it was truly a group effort.

Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams led the team with 12 sacks and joined Gardner as first-team All-Pro selections. Linebacker C.J. Mosley led the team with 158 total tackles (99 solo) to make the second team. All three are still under contract, and it’s scary to think that the defense could be even better if Rodgers and the offense can keep them off the field more this season.

Outlook

The Jets might have the best defense in the NFL, and the offense should definitely be improved, assuming Aaron Rodgers can hold off Father Time. The problem with finding a way to bet on the Jets is we’re still unsure if they can close the gap on the Bills in the AFC East. If they’re destined for a wild-card spot, that’s a tough road for AFC or Super Bowl futures. The best play is probably on the Jets Over 9.5, though DraftKings has it juiced at -130, so look for a cheaper price. If you believe they can get to 11 wins, the better bet might be to find an Over 10 at plus-money.

Recommendation: Over 9.5 wins.

 

New England Patriots

The Patriots were in playoff contention until Week 18, though they lost five of their last eight games to finish 8-9 and miss the postseason. The defense mostly carried the team as the offense struggled in the post-Tom Brady era. They’re still regarded as the worst team in the NFC East as DraftKings has them as the longest shot to win the division at 8-1 as well as 35-1 to win the AFC and 65-1 to win the Super Bowl with an Over/Under Season Win Total of 7.5.

Offense

Mac Jones had a mediocre season with just 2,997 yards and 14 TDs and 11 INTs. There was even a QB controversy as Jones suffered a left leg injury in Week 3 and watched as rookie backup Bailey Zappe played well in relief of Brian Hoyer in a Week 4 OT loss at the Packers and then led the team to Week 5 and 6 wins over the Lions and Browns. But then came the embarrassing 33-14 home loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football in Week 7, and Jones returned the next week to lead a win over the Jets.

The “no offensive coordinator” experiment with Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia splitting the duties was a failure as the Pats averaged 21.4 points per game (ranked No. 16 in the league) and even worse at 314.6 yards per game (No. 26), so Bill O’Brien has been brought back to tutor Jones.

Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 1,040 rushing yards and should be more of the focus with Damien Harris leaving for Buffalo. Leading receiver Jakobi Meyers is also gone to Las Vegas, but the Patriots have brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster from Kansas City, and they’re hoping DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton finally play to their potential. At press time, the Patriots were still pursuing free-agent WR DeAndre Hopkins, which would be an immediate upgrade.

Defense

The defense continually picked up the offense in 2022 to keep the Patriots competitive in most games, allowing just 20.4 points per game (ranking No. 11 in the league) and 322 yards per game (No. 9). Those numbers were pretty impressive considering the high-powered offenses in the AFC East (last year’s Jets notwithstanding).

Inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley led the team with 125 total tackles while LB Matthew Judon had 15.5 sacks and LB Josh Uche added 11.5 as the Pats had the third-most sacks per game. All three are under contract and back to lead the stop unit. The Pats signed free-agent CB Jonathan Jones and first-round pick Christian Gonzalez is expected to man the other corner.

Outlook

The Patriots obviously have a tough task playing in the same division they used to own with the Bills at the top, the Dolphins having their high-powered offense and the Jets expected to improve with Aaron Rodgers. So, it’s probably not worth betting them in the division, conference or Super Bowl futures. However, since they are in such a strong division, DraftKings has their Over/Under Season Win Total set low at 7.5, with the Under favored at -120. Do we really expect a Belichick team to finish that far below .500? The play is on Over 7.5, especially at even money.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 wins.

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