NFL Division Preview: AFC North

By
Adam Burke
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1199
 

NFL Division Preview: AFC North

The AFC North was one of two divisions in the NFL last season to have three teams with a winning record, and it looks to have a formidable quartet of squads once again. The Cincinnati Bengals (+140) might be the best team in football if Joe Burrow stays healthy, while the Cleveland Browns (+425) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+450) have high ceilings if Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett play up to or exceed expectations.

 

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With Lamar Jackson signed, sealed, and delivered, the Baltimore Ravens (+240), who have won at least 10 games in four of the five seasons with Jackson, look poised for another season as a strong playoff contender. There are no easy games within the division, as this is arguably the deepest division in the league for the 2023 season.

Watson is one of the main storylines with a retooled wide receiver group and the rust of a 700-day layoff in the rearview mirror, but the Browns still have to overcome the reigning two-time division champion Bengals, who might have been an ill-advised out-of-bounds push on Patrick Mahomes away from being the reigning two-time AFC champs. They also have to play well enough to unseat a Ravens team that has finished lower than second just once since 2015 and a rival that has won 32 of the 41 head-to-head games over the last 20 years.

Are we looking at more of the same in the AFC North with the Bengals and Ravens atop the mountain or will this season provide some surprises? 

 

Baltimore Ravens

With the highest-paid player in NFL history back in the fold, the Baltimore Ravens are looking for their fifth playoff appearance in the last six seasons. The five-year, $265 million contract that Lamar Jackson negotiated for himself solved the quarterback question for the Ravens, but the onus is now on him to answer some questions, specifically about his health. If he can do that, the Ravens can absolutely challenge the Bengals and make it back to the postseason.

Offense

Jackson has only been able to play 12 games each of the last two seasons for the Baltimore offense, and he hasn’t been able to replicate his 2019 MVP season or his strong follow-up in 2020. Jackson has a 33/20 TD/INT ratio over the last two seasons, and while he’s rushed for 1,531 yards, he only has five rushing touchdowns. He had seven in each of 2019 and 2020 alone.

Optimism is high with the Ravens, though, because new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is back after three impressive seasons with the University of Georgia. They also revamped the wide receiver position with first-round pick Zay Flowers and reliable veterans Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency. After gaining just 5.5 yards per play last season, this offense definitely needed a spark.

A healthy J.K. Dobbins would also provide a spark, as he had 5.7 yards per carry over 92 attempts. The new-look WR corps should also give Mark Andrews a few more open targets. He was third in receiving yards among tight ends on a team-high 113 targets. This was a top-10 offense in EPA/play through 11 weeks prior to Jackson’s season-ending injury in Week 12 against the Broncos, so there is a foundation to build on with more talented personnel.

Defense

The Ravens only allowed 5.3 yards per play, but they finished 14th in EPA/play, 22nd in Dropback EPA, and 21st in Dropback Success Rate. They effectively stuffed the run and allowed just 3.9 yards per carry, but there were some coverage breakdowns. The advanced stats weren’t as kind to this defense as the more traditional metrics.

Baltimore allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage against, despite finishing in the top 10 in sacks with 48. The Ravens worked in enough good outcomes to cover for some of their pass defense failings, as they were third in red-zone touchdown percentage and fourth in third-down conversion rate against. They’ll run it back with a similar group this year minus Calais Campbell and Chuck Clark.

Outlook

Every team in the AFC North is chasing Cincinnati, and every AFC team may very well be chasing the Bengals, but the Ravens are a well-run, well-coached organization with 45 wins in the 61 games started by Jackson. They look to be the division’s second-best team solidly, and that should be good enough for a playoff berth in the expanded postseason. Their win total, however, seems fair at 9.5.

Recommendation: A slight lean to Over 9.5, as it depends on Jackson’s health.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

The reigning two-time AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals have one goal this season: to win the Super Bowl. After having a top-10 scoring defense to go with a top-10 scoring offense in 2022, a late push on Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game may have been the difference between losing in heartbreaking fashion and winning the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. With a stacked roster, the Bengals are the AFC North favorites, and some think this might be the best team in the NFL.

Offense

Last season marked the first time that the Bengals won consecutive division titles since 1981-82 and a third looks likely with Joe Burrow and a tremendous group of wide receivers. Surprisingly, the Bengals only managed 5.5 yards per play last season, but they were fifth in EPA/play and Dropback EPA, along with finishing third in Dropback Success Rate. Cincinnati’s receivers weren’t as explosive, averaging 10.8 yards per catch after averaging 12.6 in 2022, but the Bengals did shave 10 sacks off of Burrow’s total to lessen the impact of negative plays.

Along with their overall success, the Bengals were at their best when it mattered most, posting the third-best third-down conversion rate at 48.1% behind the Bills and Chiefs and the fifth-best red-zone touchdown percentage at 64.9%.

In a cruel twist of fate, the retooled offensive line suffered major injuries late in the season, including the playoffs. On paper, health is the only thing that could hold Cincinnati back.

Defense

The Bengals went from 42 sacks in 2021 to 30 sacks in 2022, but they still improved in EPA/play, Dropback EPA, and Dropback Success Rate. They did all that with just half of a season from Chidobe Awuzie, who tore his ACL in Week 8. Now they’ll have to replace safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III, who were third and fourth, respectively, in tackles and had eight of the team’s 13 interceptions.

The spotlight will be on lightly-used 2022 first-round pick Dax Hill to show the promise and potential that made him the 31st overall pick out of Michigan as he fills some big shoes in the secondary. The Bengals also isolated Rams safety Nick Scott and signed him to a three-year deal. The safety spot is the biggest question on the team, as the front seven returns intact and Awuzie’s return should help the corners.

Outlook

Despite a little bit of interest during this year’s coaching carousel, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo are both back, so the Bengals look very similar to last year’s team that went 12-4 and was maybe overtime against the Chiefs away from being the AFC champion again. The season win total of 11.5 leaves little margin for error with a difficult schedule, but 11-6 should also win the AFC North, so expect a division crown and a double-digit season in the ‘W’ column once again.

Recommendation: I lean over with the Bengals’ win total, who, if healthy, may win it all.

 

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns almost have a clean slate to work with this season. Deshaun Watson spent five games shaking off the rust, and the beleaguered defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwartz, who is back where it all began when he was a personnel scout from 1993-95 working under Bill Belichick. With optimism on offense and a more positive outlook on defense, the Browns are in search of a turnaround and a playoff berth.

Offense

Head coach Kevin Stefanski seemed to be under a lot of fire last season, but the truth is that he turned Jacoby Brissett into the leader of an offense that was sixth in EPA/play and ninth in Success Rate through Week 11. The Browns had a top-five passing offense by Dropback EPA and a top-five ground attack by Rush EPA. However, when Watson returned in Week 12, the Browns were 24th in EPA/play and just 12th in Rush EPA, as everything seemed to suffer.

Armed with a new receiving corps that includes third-round pick Cedric Tillman, trade acquisition Elijah Moore, and free agent Marquise Goodwin, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper will see less attention from opposing defenses and Watson will have no shortage of targets. Also, Nick Chubb, who rushed for 1,525 yards, should have a little softer defense to run into as the passing game matures.

Of course, that also assumes that Watson will return to his pre-suspension form or something close to it to utilize all the weapons at his disposal.

Defense

The Browns finished 15th in yards per play allowed on defense, but numerous coverage breakdowns and overall bad play hurt throughout the season. Overall, the Browns finished 25th in EPA/play, as the Jadeveon Clowney soap opera played out and big plays were few and far between outside of Myles Garrett’s 16 sacks.

Cleveland only had 20 takeaways and finished 25th in points per drive allowed. Over the last six weeks of the season, the Browns seemed to figure some things out and were third in EPA/play, but that wasn’t enough to save Joe Woods’s job. Schwartz is a veteran DC with some nice pieces to work with, including a lot of draft capital spent on the secondary, Garrett, and former Chiefs safety Juan Thornhill.

The Browns have also provided some help for Garrett in terms of the pass rush with Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, plus some upgrades at defensive tackle in hopes of stopping the run.

Outlook

All the talent is there for the Browns to have an outstanding season. They still have a quality offensive line and plenty of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball. Watson is the big question. Are the Browns able to get the guy who posted a 68.7% completion rate with an 85/28 TD/INT ratio from 2018-20 or a much lesser version eating up a huge amount of cap space? This looks like a boom-or-bust team, but the schedule is favorable for a playoff push.

Recommendation: I lean Over on the win total.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have never had a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin, who took over in 2007 and won a Super Bowl in just his second season at the helm, has navigated this roster through a rebuild on the fly and the Steelers look like a threat again in the loaded AFC North. While the floor is high, the ceiling might be low, and the team’s playoff hopes may simply rest on the shoulders of quarterback Kenny Pickett.

Offense

The Steelers were 7-5 in Pickett’s 12 starts last year. He only threw two interceptions over his final nine starts, though he only threw for 1,633 yards and five touchdown passes. Still, he took care of the ball, and the team finished on a four-game winning streak, with three of those victories in his starts.

While the .500 or better streak remained intact, the Steelers did only amass 4.9 yards per play, were outgained by 0.6 yards per play, and outscored by 38 points with a low-output offense that only scored a touchdown on 51.9% of red-zone trips. Only four teams had fewer yards per play and three of them picked in the top five of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Steelers had a solid rush attack with Najee Harris and Pickett’s contributions, but the passing offense left a lot to be desired, and that is the focus for this season.

Defense

Defensively, the Steelers were a bottom-10 unit by EPA/play, as they struggled mightily against the pass. They gave up 29 touchdown passes, which was tied for the second-most in the league, and 12.2 yards per reception, which ranked 31st. It was a boom-or-bust defense in some respects that tied for the league lead in interceptions with 20, but there was a whole lot of bad sprinkled among the good.

Patrick Peterson and second-round pick Joey Porter Jr. come in to provide some aid to the beleaguered secondary and the pass rush should benefit from more of T.J. Watt, who was limited to 10 games and 5.5 sacks. After the bye week, the Steelers went 7-2 and allowed more than 17 points just once with a +8 turnover margin.

Outlook

On paper, the Steelers are the fourth-best team in the AFC North and their season win total of 8.5 with Over juice does seem to be indicative of the team’s reputation. They find ways to win, and they’ve avoided a losing season despite a negative point differential in three of the last four years. The bye week comes very early this season (Week 5), and ongoing questions about Pickett are hard to ignore. I believe the streak stops here.

Recommendation: Under 8.5 wins.

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