NFL Division Preview: AFC South

By
Wes Reynolds
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571
 

NFL Division Preview: AFC South

In 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars went from the outhouse to the penthouse. Well, maybe just a loft, but they did go from worst to first in the AFC South going 9-8 and winning a playoff game for the first time since 2017. Now Jacksonville assumes a role to which it is not accustomed as the favorite and must play a first-place schedule as a division winner.

 

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To win the AFC South last year in the final week of the regular season, the Jaguars had to outlast Tennessee, who was down to its third-string quarterback Joshua Dobbs and ended its season on a seven-game losing streak after a 7-3 start. The Titans ended the 2022 season with a league-high 23 players on injured reserve. Ryan Tannehill is back as the starting quarterback, but he is in the final year of his contract in Nashville. Tennessee is still amongst the league’s best at running the ball with Derrick Henry and stopping the run.

The other two teams in the AFC South are breaking in first-year head coaches. Shane Steichen takes over in Indianapolis fresh off a Super Bowl appearance as the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles. His main priority is to eventually end the revolving door of quarterbacks in Indianapolis with first-round pick Anthony Richardson while also hoping that running back Jonathan Taylor, the 2021 NFL rushing leader, can return with a clean bill of health.

Meanwhile, in Houston, DeMeco Ryans comes in from a very successful stint as defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. The Texans made a lot of noise on the opening night of this April’s NFL Draft taking Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick and then trading back up to the third overall pick to take Alabama linebacker Will Anderson. The Texans are still in the infancy stages of a massive roster rebuild.

 

Houston Texans 

Despite winning its final game of 2022 which cost them the No. 1 overall pick, Houston still procured a potential franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick. With Davis Mills in the final year of his contract, Stroud likely sees the field sooner rather than later. DeMeco Ryans brings Bobby Slowik from San Francisco to be his offensive coordinator. Slowik started his NFL coaching career under Mike Shanahan in Washington and served under his son Kyle with the 49ers. More than likely, Slowik will be more run-heavy early on, like his mentors, with a young quarterback and as a first-time play-caller.

Offense

Dameon Pierce had a solid rookie season (939 rushing yards) before an ankle injury ended his season in Week 13. Last year’s leading receiver Brandin Cooks was traded to Dallas, so Robert Woods comes in from Tennessee. Nevertheless, the biggest addition to the receiving corps is tight end Dalton Schultz who caught eight touchdowns (including three in the postseason) for Dallas last year.

Left tackle Laremy Tunsil was the No. 1 pass-blocking tackle per PFF last season and is now the highest-paid (3-year, $75M extension) OL in the league. He and right tackle Tytus Howard are one of the better tackle combos in the NFL. Houston also upgraded at right guard with a trade for Shaq Mason from Tampa Bay. Left guard Kenyon Green struggled mightily as a rookie last year and is coming off knee surgery.

Defense

Ryans’ defense in San Francisco was tops in the NFL last year. He and new defensive coordinator Matt Burke believe in an attacking defensive line that gets to the quarterback. The Texans lacked a force on the edge which is why they traded up in the first round to draft Anderson No. 3 overall. Getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks is all well and good, but the 2022 Texans surrendered the most rushing yards (170.2 ypg) in the NFL last season. The unit will need Sheldon Rankins (UFA-Jets) to make an immediate impact up front paired with Maliek Collins.

The secondary is arguably the best unit on the team led by second-year man and former first-rounder Derek Stingley Jr, who showed flashes but only played nine games due to a hamstring injury. At the other corner, Steven Nelson had a career season last year. Free safety Jalen Pitre led the team in tackles and picked off five passes as a rookie second-round pick. Ryans brought a reinforcement with him from San Francisco as Jimmie Ward takes over the other safety position.

Outlook

The Texans have not exceeded four wins in any of their last three seasons. This is a long rebuild which is why DeMeco Ryans was given a six-year deal. The team should be better this year but will still have a rookie starting quarterback without a true downfield threat in the passing game and a first-time offensive play-caller. The strength of schedule is about mid-pack, and Houston has five of its last eight games at home. More than likely, they will give an honest effort in all 17 games and pick up a couple of late wins due to effort, but there will be growing pains, especially on offense

Recommendation: Lean Under 6.5 wins.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Colts owner Jim Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard truly believed that they were just a few players away from being a serious contender in the AFC, but they quickly realized that perception was way off as head coach Frank Reich was dismissed mid-season and Matt Ryan showed that he did not have it anymore. Enter Shane Steichen and No. 4 overall pick and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

Offense

Steichen brings Gardner Minshew with him from Philadelphia, and he will likely be the early starter. The potential and athleticism of Richardson are massive, but this is a young player who only completed 54.7% of his passes at Florida, so accuracy is a major concern.

Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns in 2021, but he only posted 861 yards and four touchdowns in 11 games due to an ankle injury and an anemic offense. Michael Pittman Jr (99/925/4) is a good receiver but not good enough to be a true No. 1 that can beat double coverages.

Perhaps no group is more responsible for the Colts’ recent decline than the offensive line, which was the highest-paid OL unit in the league for 2022. This unit allowed 60 sacks last season, the second-most in the NFL. Center Ryan Kelly is a former Pro Bowler and got pushed around way too often. Bernhard Raimann got baptized by fire at left tackle. Even three-time first-team All-Pro Quenton Nelson declined last season, partially due to injuries.

Defense 

Gus Bradley was retained as defensive coordinator as this group was at least solid despite constantly being on the field due to the anemic offense which was largely responsible for the defense ranking 28th in points allowed (25.1 ppg). The defensive line is the best unit on the squad as DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the league. Kwity Paye has ten sacks in 27 games over two seasons but must make the leap to reach his full potential.

Nevertheless, the biggest question on this defense is the health of Shaquille Leonard. He made only one start in 2022 due to a lingering nerve issue in his back. “The Maniac” insists he is healthy, and the three-time first-team All-Pro is the man that makes this defense go considering he tallied 538 tackles, 15 sacks, 11 interceptions, and 17 forced fumbles in his first four years before last year’s injury-plagued season.

The young secondary has the most question marks on this defense with Stephon Gilmore gone and his replacement Isaiah Rodgers facing a likely suspension for being discovered to have bet on NFL games. Kenny Moore, now in a contract year, was a Pro-Bowler in 2021 as the slot corner but declined last year partially due to an ankle injury.

Outlook

This organization has one playoff win in eight years and has not won the AFC South since 2014. The natives are getting restless for Ballard to put a winner on the field. Steichen worked wonders with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, and perhaps he can eventually do the same with Richardson. Minshew is only 8-16 as a starter, but he has the experience to keep the Colts in games early in the season. The schedule is manageable with just five playoff teams from last season on it; however, there are still a lot of questions looming with this team. 6.5 season wins looks to be the right number.

Recommendation: Lean Over 6.5 wins.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Doug Pederson pulled off the best one-year turnaround in NFL history last season in his first season as Jaguars head coach. Jacksonville started 3-7 and then won six of their last seven games to win the division. 

Offense

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence improved in his second year with a 25-8 TD-INT ratio versus a 12-17 ratio in his rookie season. Lawrence brings back his entire receiving corps (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Marvin Jones) at over 3,200 combined yards and 20 touchdowns between them, and adds Calvin Ridley, who returns from his one-year gambling suspension, and second-round tight end Brenton Strange (Penn State).

Travis Etienne ran for 1,125 yards and five touchdowns last season, but Jacksonville did lack a power runner in short-yardage situations which is why they drafted Tank Bigsby (Auburn) in the third round. Etienne also must correct his fumble issues (five).

The offensive line is the biggest issue the Jaguars have if they are to repeat as AFC South Champions. No offensive lineman on the Jacksonville roster earned a PFF grade in the 50th percentile or better for their position last season.

Defense

The defensive line is also a question mark. While the down linemen were solid against the run (12th in NFL), they only registered seven sacks between them. Either this group must get more pressure upfront on the passer or the Jaguars edge rushers must make a massive leap, and probably it needs to be a little bit of both considering the Jaguars ranked 27th in sack rate last season (5.5%).

Josh Allen, the 2019 seventh overall pick, only had six sacks last season and last year’s No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker only registered 3.5. Walker was not the only disappointing first-round draft pick on Jacksonville’s defense last season as linebacker Devin Lloyd often showed a lack of awareness and was benched for two games last season. On the inside of the 3-4 defense is some stability with Foyesade Oluokun leading the NFL in tackles (184) for the second consecutive season, but only 12 were for loss of yardage.

Jacksonville’s lack of pass rush led the Jaguars to be 29th on third-down defense, 25th in red zone defense, and 30th in pass defense DVOA. However, the edge rushers were not the only culprits as the secondary struggled. Third-year cornerback Tyson Campbell is the team’s only true difference-maker in pass coverage, and the Jaguars did not draft anyone for help in the secondary until the fifth round. This unit can only live off turnovers so much.

Outlook

Jacksonville’s offense should continue to put up points and yards with Lawrence’s continued development and plenty of talent at the skill positions. However, the offensive line, edge rushers, and secondary do not look to have improved. The Jaguars now have the unfamiliar distinction of being the hunted. Teams will not sleep on this team that probably overachieved in 2022. Furthermore, they now must play a first-place division winner schedule which includes games with Kansas City, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco. The Jaguars also had a lot of injury luck in 2022 finishing with just the second-fewest Adjusted Games Lost. The Jaguars are the rightful favorite but probably a tad overvalued at -150.

Recommendation: Lean Under 9.5 wins and play at Under 10 wins.

 

Tennessee Titans

It looked like the Titans were going to “three-peat” as AFC South champions as they got off to a 7-3 start. Then, the injuries mounted, and they lost seven games in a row to close the season. They finished with the third-most Adjusted Games Lost (128.6), a Football Outsiders metric that quantifies games missed due to injury by starters and key situational players. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill missed five starts, including the final three games, due to ankle injuries. Tennessee had to start Joshua Dobbs, who was on the Lions’ practice squad earlier in the season, on the road in Week 18 to decide the division title. 

Offense

The Titans ranked 28th in points (17.5 ppg) and 30th in passing yardage (171.4 ypg). Tannehill does have a little more competition as Will Levis (Kentucky) was drafted in the second round. Todd Downing was shown the door, and Tim Kelly was promoted to offensive coordinator which could ease a little workload for Derrick Henry.

2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks had a disappointing season with just 33 catches and 444 yards and one touchdown in 11 games. This should be a much better season for Burks, but the receiver position is still thin. However, second-year tight end Chig Okonkwo averaged 14.1 yards per catch as a rookie and is the most explosive player the Titans have had at the position in recent memory.

After allowing 49 sacks, the Titans rebooted the offensive line especially at tackle by signing Andre Dillard away from the Eagles and drafting Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) 11th overall.

Defense

The injuries for Tennessee were especially brutal on defense as no team in the league had more Adjusted Games Lost on defense than the 85.6 for the Titans. Injuries were the main culprit for Tennessee allowing a league-worst 274.8 ypg through the air in 2022. The defensive line is one of the NFL’s best. Jeffery Simmons signed a four-year, $94 million extension in the offseason. He anchors a unit that led the league against the run (76.9 ypg).

Harold Landry III also returns after being lost for the season with a torn ACL just before last season began.

Perhaps no unit on this team should improve more than the secondary. Kevin Byard is still one of the best all-around safeties in the league, and Amani Hooker is one of the best safeties in coverage. Sean Murphy-Bunting did miss 13 games over the last two seasons in Tampa Bay but is still an above-average cover corner as he only allowed 4.3 yards per target last season.

Outlook

The Titans certainly have flaws (receiver, still some OL questions, history of injuries in the secondary), but their demise has been exaggerated. Tennessee won nine or more games in each of the four seasons prior to 2022. Mike Vrabel is 20-19 straight up in games as an underdog. He is better when he is doubted a bit. This team is clearly undervalued in the market and due to finishing second in the division, the Titans get a break in the schedule with only six games of the 17 against playoff teams from 2022. At a current price of 4/1, they are a good bet to win the AFC South.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 Wins.

 

 

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