NFL Division Preview: NFC North

By
Matt Youmans
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789
 

NFL Division Preview: NFC North

It was not a playoff win — something that has eluded Detroit since 1991 — but it was almost as sweet. The Lions ended the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay by beating the Packers 20-16 in a prime-time season finale in January. After opening the season 1-6, the Lions caught fire to win eight of their final 10 games and finish with a winning record. Detroit just missed the postseason, but that night at Lambeau Field was significant for many reasons and represented a sign of change in the NFC North — out with the old (Rodgers) and in with a new favorite. There’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Dan Campbell.

 

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DraftKings posted Detroit as the +130 pick to win the division — something that has not happened since 1993 when the division was the NFC Central. The Lions went 5-1 in division play last season as Jared Goff quieted the jokes and developed into a legit franchise quarterback. Still, there’s a big difference between being the hunter and turning into the hunted. The Lions finally learned how to win, yet can they handle the favorite’s role? Detroit was listed as the favorite in 12 of its 17 games when DraftKings opened lines in early May.

The Vikings were considered frauds by most sharp handicappers for most of last season. Minnesota went 13-4 yet finished with a -3 point differential before losing its playoff opener. DraftKings lists the Vikings as the second choice in the division at +250. Justin Fields and the Bears, who ended the season with a 10-game losing streak, are the third choice (+400). With his diva act, Rodgers had worn out his welcome in Green Bay. Jordan Love leads the Packers (+500) into a new era with lower expectations.

 

Chicago Bears

Either you believe in Justin Fields, or you think the Bears are fooling themselves by believing he’s a true franchise quarterback. Chicago general manager Ryan Poles shipped the No. 1 overall pick in a trade to pile up draft picks, acquire a No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore and start using a massive amount of salary-cap space to rebuild the roster. This team is on the rise, but that’s easy to say for a team at the bottom. The Bears lost their final 10 games to finish 3-14, including 0-6 in the division. Fields has a stronger supporting cast, so it’s time to start winning.

Offense

Start with the bad news for the Bears — their offense ranked a distant last in passing yards (130.5 ypg), and Fields was sacked a league-high 55 times. The good news is Chicago led the NFL in rushing (177.3 ypg) by a wide margin with Fields running for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. The trade with Carolina that brought in Moore will be a big help to Fields, who has improved receiving options with Moore flanked by Chase Claypool and Darnell Moody and tight ends Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan. Running back David Montgomery bolted for Detroit as a free agent, but Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson are talented runners. The biggest concern is the offensive line. First-round pick Darnell Wright from Tennessee is slated to start immediately at right tackle. The development of the line and Fields’ ability to mature as a passer will be the keys to the car moving more effectively after the Bears ranked 23rd in scoring (19.2 ppg).

Defense

While most debates about the Bears start with Fields, the defense must make the most improvement after ranking last in the NFL in scoring (27.2 ppg) and sacks (20) and 31st in rushing (157.3 ypg). Poles signed end DeMarcus Walker and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. Veteran safety Eddie Jackson returns to lead a promising secondary that includes safety Jaquan Brisker and corners Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. The defense has a long way to go, but it’s getting there, and Poles needs another year to continue rebuilding.

Outlook

On a Monday night in late October, Fields passed for 179 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown, and the Bears pounded the Patriots 33-14 as big road underdogs. Chicago rushed for 243 yards against Bill Belichick’s defense in one of the most stunning results of the NFL season. That’s how good the Bears could be when it all clicked. Of course, it all soured after that as the team lost 10 in a row to finish the season. The schedule is soft enough, starting with games against the Packers and Buccaneers, for Chicago to find hope for a quick turnaround. It also helps that Aaron Rodgers, who owned the Bears with a 22-5 record against them, is gone from Green Bay. Fields is not surrounded by the same type of team Jalen Hurts had in Philadelphia last year, so that comparison of young quarterbacks falls short. The bottom line is it’s tough to predict a three-win team to make the leap to eight wins.

Recommendation: Under 7.5 wins.

 

Detroit Lions

Dan Campbell is part coach, part caveman. He has talked about biting kneecaps and kicking in teeth. He’s a wildly emotional tough guy who’s not too shy to cry on camera. Formerly a punch line, his team is suddenly the favorite to win the NFC North. The Lions have earned respect in the betting market, but it’s not always easy to win when it’s expected. It’s worth remembering that Campbell’s record in Detroit was 4-19-1 before his team got hot and went 8-2 down the stretch. Be careful assuming the Lions will simply take the next step up.

Offense

Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers each threw more interceptions than Jared Goff last season. Goff put up elite numbers, passing for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the final 10 games, when the Lions won eight times, Goff passed for 17 touchdowns with one interception. His offensive line is also elite and led by center Frank Ragnow and tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. Goff was sacked only 23 times in 17 starts. The bad news for Detroit is wideout Jameson Williams, a former first-round pick, will miss the first six games for a gambling-related suspension. The good news is Goff still has plenty of weapons — wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ranked fifth in scoring offense (26.6 ppg), and coordinator Ben Johnson is back to call the plays.

Defense

Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2022, lived up to the hype while recording 9.5 sacks as a rookie. Detroit is loaded with defensive line and linebacker talent. Middle linebacker Alex Anzalone made a team-high 125 tackles and will be flanked by Jack Campbell, one of the team’s first-round picks. The secondary also has playmakers, led by cornerback Cameron Sutton, safety Kerby Joseph and rookie Brian Branch, a second-round pick from Alabama. Detroit ranked last in total defense (392.4 ypg) and 28th in scoring (25.1 ppg), but its numbers improved dramatically in December and January, so expect significant improvement from a unit that made progress and added key personnel in the offseason.

Outlook

The betting public is piling on the bandwagon by betting the Lions Over their win total and to win the division and Super Bowl. A contrarian handicapper would tap the brakes. Not so fast. Yes, everything looks impressive on paper for a team that appears primed to make the playoffs, yet it’s still a Detroit team that went 3-13-1 in 2021 and started 1-6 last year. Goff is not quite Mahomes, the quarterback he will face in Kansas City in Week 1, and Campbell is not Andy Reid. DraftKings opened the Lions as favorites in 12 of their 17 games — and favorites of 3.5 points or more in six games. While it’s easy to root for Detroit to get over the hump and win the division and a playoff game for the first time since the early 1990s, you need to see it to believe it sometimes with a traditional loser. Ten wins is attainable, and another 9-8 finish is certainly realistic in a weak division.

Recommendation: Lean Under 9.5 wins.

 

Green Bay Packers

Three years ago, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst started planning for a new era. He traded up to draft Jordan Love, a quarterback from Utah State, in the first round and sent a message to Aaron Rodgers. It’s finally time for the Love affair in Green Bay. Of course, it could turn into hate if the offense falters. Gutekunst is gambling, but he had time to set up Love to succeed. Will the Packers be a disaster without Rodgers or develop into a pleasant surprise? While this team is no longer a Super Bowl contender, it will be intriguing to watch.

Offense

Rodgers was not great last season when he threw 12 interceptions, his highest total since 2008. He also failed to get the Packers to the playoffs, ending their three-year run of division titles. Rodgers obviously missed top receiver Davante Adams, who took his talents to Las Vegas last year. Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur loaded up by drafting a total of eight wide receivers and tight ends in the past two drafts. Love will lean most on young receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed along with tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. A power running attack led by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be more of a focus, so expect last season’s rushing average (124.3 ypg) to increase. An important element will be the health of left tackle David Bakhtiari, who has dealt with knee injuries. If Bakhtiari is available, the line looks solid with Elgton Jenkins and Jon Runyan, among others. The growth curve of Love and his young pass catchers will be the key, but Jones and Dillon could carry the offense a long way.

Defense

Gutekunst has made eight first-round picks as GM, with seven spent on defense. Iowa edge rusher Lukas Van Ness was this year’s top pick. In 2021, the Packers grabbed two Georgia stars — linebacker Quay Walker and tackle Devonte Wyatt — in the first round. Green Bay was decent defensively last year, ranking 17th in scoring and yards allowed, and needs to make major improvement at stopping the run. The Kenny Clark-led front seven looks strong, especially if Rashan Gary returns to form after an injury and if Walker, Wyatt and Van Ness step up along with linebacker Kingsley Enagbare. The cornerback position is in good shape with Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, but the safety spots could be soft. Similar to the offense, the defense is young but packed with potential.

Outlook

It’s tempting to tout the Packers as a surprise team, partly because the masses expect a major decline after Rodgers’ departure. Green Bay went 8-9 with Rodgers, whose diva act became tiring, so why not move on from his big contract and constant whining? One reason to pause is the inexperience of Love, who has played in 10 games, started one and taken 157 career snaps. If Love is a bust, the Packers are in big trouble. The first-half schedule should help Love, with Green Bay facing only one playoff team from last season in the first eight games. The team’s running attack, young receivers and surplus of talent on the defensive front seven indicate the Packers could be better than expected. It’s not too much of a stretch to say Green Bay can win eight or nine games and be better than the Vikings and Bears.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 wins.

 

Minnesota Vikings

Oddsmakers are calling for regression in Minnesota and calling for it in a big way. The Vikings went 13-4 and won the division by four games, but they never earned the respect of sharp bettors for several reasons. Despite finishing nine games over .500, Minnesota’s point differential for the season was -3. The defense ranked in the NFL’s bottom five in scoring and yards allowed. The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games before getting bounced from the playoffs by the Giants. Kevin O’Connell’s first season as coach was a magic trick unlikely to be replicated.

Offense

Kirk Cousins has plenty of critics and probably does not rank as a top-10 quarterback in the league, but he limits turnovers and tends to win just enough. Cousins passed for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns last year. On the downside, he threw a career-high 14 interceptions. The biggest reason for his success was Justin Jefferson, who led the NFL in receptions (128) and yards (1,809). Jefferson, rookie receiver Jordan Addison, a first-round pick from USC, and tight end T.J. Hockenson will be Cousins’ top targets. Fan favorite Adam Thielen, last year’s No. 2 receiver with 70 catches, is gone and the Vikings released leading rusher Dalvin Cook. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw and a solid offensive line should help battering ram Alexander Mattison improve a running attack that averaged only 97.7 ypg and ranked 27th. O’Connell’s offense ranked eighth in scoring (24.9 ppg), mostly due to Jefferson’s explosive playmaking ability.

Defense

After a 31-24 loss to the Giants in the wild-card round, the Vikings were forced to look in the mirror and make changes because the 13-win season was due mostly to the offense. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell was sent packing and replaced by former Dolphins coach Brian Flores. Veteran corner Patrick Peterson was among a few starters to depart. Flores will rebuild the defense around edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport and veteran safety Harrison Smith. Minnesota ranked 31st in total defense (388.7 ypg) — ahead of only the Lions — and 28th in scoring (25.1 ppg). Flores has some young talent to work with and should do well, but there’s much work to do, and it seems he could have found a better job than this.

Outlook

Close-game luck and a weak schedule had a lot to do with the Vikings’ success. Things are about to get tougher. Minnesota will face the AFC (Chiefs, Bengals) and NFC (Eagles, 49ers) finalists as part of a first-place schedule. It should help to face the four teams from the soft NFC South. Still, NFL teams don’t win double-digit games with smoke and mirrors in back-to-back years. The Vikings were exposed in some spots last season — a 40-3 home loss to Dallas and a 41-17 loss at Green Bay, for example. What might best sum up their season was a 39-36 overtime win against the Colts, who blew a 33-0 lead. Cousins, Jefferson and a strong offensive line can help Minnesota win its share of high-scoring shootouts, but the regression monster is coming, and no one should be surprised if this team goes 8-9.

Recommendation: Very slight lean Under 8.5 wins, but it’s not a best bet as the oddsmakers got ahead on the win total.

 

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