NFL First TD Scorer

Hi, guys. Adam here. I regret to inform you that due to her promotion to Executive Producer and new duties, Stephanie Kamerschak, the author of the First TD Scorer article the last two seasons, won’t be doing it this season. Her gain is your loss because I’ll be doing it now, but she did pass along her handy, dandy TD Tracker Google Sheet, so I’ve got that at my disposal and we’ve got a new season of games to think about.

Steph did an outstanding job with this weekly look at not only which player and team would find the end zone first for the game, but also the player to score the first touchdown for each team. I will do my best to uphold the high standards she set for this and will try to keep a similar format.

 

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Admittedly, I don’t know how much last season’s data matters in Week 1, as personnel changes on and off the field lead to a degree of uncertainty. We do have 14 new play-callers around the league and eight new head coaches. So, I’ll let you decide what it means to you and we’ll go from there.

2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team

TeamFTD/Games PlayedSuccess Rate
Ravens14/1782.4
49ers13/1776.5
Chiefs12/1770.6
Raiders11/1764.7
Cowboys11/1764.7
Packers11/1764.7
Vikings10/1758.8
Jaguars10/1758.8
Eagles10/1758.8
Broncos10/1758.8
Lions10/1758.8
Dolphins10/1758.8
Browns9/1752.9
Bears9/1752.9
Falcons9/1752.9
Rams8/1747.1
Bills8/1747.1
Chargers8/1747.1
Colts8/1747.1
Bengals8/1747.1
Seahawks8/1747.1
Texans8/1747.1
Saints7/1741.2
Titans7/1741.2
Steelers7/1741.2
Cardinals6/1735.3
Patriots5/1729.4
Buccaneers5/1729.4
Commanders5/1729.4
Panthers4/1723.5
Giants4/1723.5
Jets4/1723.5

For what it’s worth, and because Steph’s TD Tracker covers 2022, here’s how that looked:

2022 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team

TeamFTD/Games PlayedSuccess Rate
Browns13/1776.5
Eagles14/2070.0
Cowboys13/1968.4
Ravens12/1866.7
Vikings12/1866.7
Chargers12/1866.7
Lions11/1764.7
Titans11/1764.7
Bengals12/2060.0
49ers12/2060.0
Chiefs12/2060.6
Rams9/1752.9
Panthers9/1752.9
Bills10/1952.6
Patriots8/1747.1
Bears8/1747.1
Saints8/1747.1
Commanders8/1747.1
Jaguars8/1942.1
Falcons7/1741.2
Raiders7/1741.2
Seahawks7/1838.9
Buccaneers7/1838.9
Giants7/1936.8
Jets6/1735.3
Steelers6/1735.3
Packers6/1735.3
Broncos6/1735.3
Texans6/1735.3
Cardinals6/1735.3
Dolphins6/1833.3
Colts4/1723.5

Obviously talent matters, including the QB and the skill guys, but scheme and coaching matter, too. With Kellen Moore in the top five with the Cowboys in in 2022 and T-4th with the Chargers last season, I expect he does really, really well in this department with the Eagles.

The Ravens were No. 1 last season with OC Todd Monken and T-4th with Greg Roman in 2022, so that is one interesting data point in terms of coaching turnover. 

The Vikings have had two nice seasons under head coach Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips.

Look, this isn’t just about picking first touchdown scorers. This is also about looking for potential live betting opportunities. Thinking about which team could play from in front. The Vikings will be an underdog a lot. Can you wait and see if they score first and then go against them after that? Should you bet a lot of Eagles’ first quarters? There are a lot of applications for something like this.

With that, let’s get to the Week 1 action and look at some big mismatches off of 2023 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.

NFL Week 1 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2023

Ravens (82.4%) / Chiefs (70.6%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Packers (64.7%) / Eagles (58.8%) – Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Steelers (41.2%) / Falcons (52.9%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Cardinals (35.3%) / Bills (47.1%)

Titans (41.2%) / Bears (52.9%)

Patriots (29.4%) / Bengals (47.1%)

Texans (47.1%) / Colts (47.1%)

Jaguars (58.8%) / Dolphins (58.8%)

Panthers (23.5%) / Saints (41.2%)

Vikings (58.8%) / Giants (23.5%)

Raiders (64.7%) / Chargers (47.1%) – 4:05 p.m. ET

Broncos (58.8%) / Seahawks (47.1%)

Cowboys (64.7%) / Browns (52.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET

Commanders (29.4%) / Buccaneers (29.4%)

Rams (47.1%) / Lions (58.8%) – 8:20 p.m. ET

Jets (23.5%) / 49ers (76.5%) –  Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET

NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Predictions

Lines current from DraftKings at time of publish

Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert +1200, A.J. Brown +800

This is an immediate buy on Moore, who, as mentioned above, had tremendous success with Dallas and Los Angeles in this department.

This is tricky because Moore really spread the love in LA last season. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen both had three first-team TDs, while Donald Parham Jr. and Josh Palmer each had one, but more than enough targets to have chances. The Eagles are going to spread the ball around with a lot of weapons, so why not throw a few darts?

I really like Brown, who had 23 red-zone targets last season. Moore went to Allen the most in LA, so he went with the most reliable hands. I also like Goedert, who was second on the team with 12 RZT (red-zone targets) and I do feel like Jalen Hurts has a good rapport with him. The Packers also allowed the fifth-fewest TE receptions, but also gave up seven touchdowns to tie for the third-highest mark.

Minnesota Vikings: Josh Oliver +2500, Justin Jefferson +650, (Jordan Addison +1300)*

The Vikings were around 60% for the first TD of the game and relied on the pass to get them there. Addison led the team with four first team TDs, while TJ Hockenson, Jefferson, and Oliver had two each. With Addison very doubtful to play this week with an ankle injury, that increases the likelihood that Jefferson gets more red-zone targets.

Oliver had a couple, including one in Week 3 last season. The first seven first team TDs of the year for the Vikings came from receivers or tight ends. Even though it’s Sam Darnold and not Kirk Cousins, O’Connell is still a pass-first kind of guy.

If Addison looks like he’s going to play, I don’t think we’ll get 13/1, but wait it out and see where the injury report takes him.

This is also a fade of the Giants, who only scored the first TD in 4/17 games last year and zero of the first six games.

New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara (+550), A.T. Perry (+2000)

By no means am I a Derek Carr fan and I’m not terribly optimistic about the Saints this season. However, Dave Canales’ Buccaneers were among the worst in this department last season and the Panthers were right there with them in Year 1 for Bryce Young. So, I’ll take my chances with the Saints and take the short shot and a longer shot.

First-year OC Klint Kubiak was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers last season. Christian McCaffrey was tied for the team lead in RZT with 18 and had nine first-team TDs. I think Kubiak will look to deploy Kamara in a similar way here. Kamara, by the way, caught all 11 of his red-zone targets last season and had a receiving TD.

Perry is a large man at 6-foot-5. He had 12 catches last season and four were touchdown grabs. I don’t think you can ever argue with deploying a tall dude in your packages near the goal line. He also seemed to be a big factor in the preseason with 14 targets and eight catches for 176 yards. He’s worth a shot at 20/1.

Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.

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