NFL First TD Scorer
WNine weeks worth of data are in the First Touchdown Tracker and now we head into Week 10 with some decisions to make. Injuries continue to throw wrenches into plans, but teams have mostly settled in at this point, now that some have played half of their games and others are close. But, it’s still a bit of a dart throw to figure out who will score, even if you get the team right that scores first.
Let’s look at the updated breakdown of first TD scorers by position and last week’s results:
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QB: 22 (2)
RB: 102 (10)
WR: 100 (12)
TE: 24 (4)
D/ST: 13 (1)
No TD: 15 (1)
Two teams, 49ers and Steelers, were on byes, so there are your 30 first TD scorers by position. Everything has looked pretty similar the last couple of weeks after some big splits between RB and WR in consecutive weeks.
Let’s also update the guys with 3+ first team TDs and how many have been the first TD of the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 7 | 1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 4 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 4 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 3 | 3 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
Some new additions to the list this week, as I believe we added six or seven rows worth of names. Arguably the biggest story here is that Kyren Williams did not score the first TD for the Rams for the first time this season. It was Demarcus Robinson instead.
It’s not noted in the chart as obviously as Williams with seven TD, but the Lions had their first non-RB first touchdown courtesy of Amon-Ra St. Brown. David Montgomery had five and Jahmyr Gibbs had two.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Vikings | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Colts | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Chargers | 6/8 (75%) |
| Eagles | 6/8 (75%) |
| Lions | 6/8 (75%) |
| Bengals | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Bucs | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Cardinals | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Panthers | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Patriots | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Seahawks | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Bills | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Raiders | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Texans | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| 49ers | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Bears | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Chiefs | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Cowboys | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Dolphins | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Steelers | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Broncos | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Browns | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Jets | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Jaguars | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Saints | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Rams | 1/8 (12.5%) |
| Giants | 1/9 (11.1%) |
In football, just as in life, nobody’s perfect. The Vikings did not score first last week, although they did win the game. We have zero teams at 100% and haven’t had a team at 0% for a while, though the Giants and Rams are trying to achieve a statistical impossibility by doing their best to get to 0% despite scoring first one time.
While no teams are perfect in the first TD department, there are eight teams that still haven’t scored a TD on their first offensive possession. They are the Bears, Cowboys, Jaguars, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Steelers, and Seahawks.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies.
Let’s get to the Week 10 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
As mentioned last week, I’m going to be publishing this on Thursday because DK is getting slower about posting the touchdown market odds and I want to make sure as many games are available as possible.
NFL Week 10 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Bengals (66.7%) at Ravens (88.9%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants (11.1%) at Panthers (55.6%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Germany)
Patriots (55.6%) at Bears (37.5%) – 1 p.m. ET
Bills (44.4%) at Colts (77.8%)
Broncos (33.3%) at Chiefs (37.5%)
Falcons (66.7%) at Saints (22.2%)
49ers (37.5%) at Buccaneers (66.7%)
Steelers (37.5%) at Commanders (33.3%)
Vikings (87.5%) at Jaguars (22.2%)
Titans (62.5%) at Chargers (75%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Eagles (75%) at Cowboys (37.5%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Jets (33.3%) at Cardinals (66.7%)
Lions (75%) at Texans (44.4%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Dolphins (37.5%) at Rams (12.5%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well. Side note, I’m leaving the Cardinals out because of Tua’s return for the Dolphins.
Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard +500, Xavier Legette +1400, Bryce Young +3000
The Panthers have scored the first TD in each of the last two games and it has been Legette both times. I know I don’t have these percentages split between starting QBs, but the Panthers are at 50% with Bryce Young and so I’m okay with taking a shot here. The Giants have played three games without a TD, the most in the NFL. I doubt that happens against Carolina’s defense, but it has played a part in why the Giants are 1/9 in this department.
Hubbard is a four-time first team TD scorer and two of them have opened the scoring. Legette has done it each of the last two weeks and his workload and target share should increase with Diontae Johnson gone. As it is, he’s played over 80% of the snaps in two of the last three games.
Young is also worth a 30/1 long shot dart at maybe a quarter of a unit or something. Hubbard has 21 carries and five targets in the red zone so far. Legette has seven targets, but Johnson had 11 and nobody else has more than three among WR or TE. Young has three rush attempts for 20 yards, but the Giants have given up three rushing TD to QB so far.
The Panthers have scored the first TD in five of the last seven games. Dave Canales is cooking early.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones +550, Jordan Addison +1000
Only the Panthers have allowed more running back touchdowns than the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed 12 of them, with eight on the ground and four through the air. Jacksonville already hasn’t had success in this department and now may be without Trevor Lawrence.
The Vikings have been excellent at scoring first throughout the Kevin O’Connell/Wes Phillips era. They’ve also scored on 50% of their opening possessions and four of the last six. You have to go back to Week 3 to find the last Justin Jefferson first team TD. Addison has two in that span, so I figure he’s worth a look here at nearly double the price.
I would shop around and see if you can get a better price, but the Vikings D/ST at 22/1 (DraftKings) might be worth some consideration. It might be Mac Jones vs. the Vikings blitz-heavy defense. Andrew Van Ginkel does have one first team TD from the defensive side.
The Jags have not scored the game’s first TD since Week 4.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. +1000, Michael Wilson +1700
TE Trey McBride had a rushing touchdown last week to open the scoring for the Cardinals. He has 45 receptions total and seven red-zone targets, but that was his first TD of the year. The Cardinals and OC Drew Petzing seemed keenly aware of that fact in the postgame when they talked about how he scored. It was the first non-WR TD from a skill-position guy this season.
Kyler Murray did have the first score in Week 5 against the 49ers, but that was a 50-yard run, so something of an anomaly. Arizona started the season with touchdowns on their first possession in five straight games and have gone 0-for-4 since, but are still 2-for-4 in that span on getting the game’s first TD. The Jets haven’t scored on their first drive yet and have only scored the first TD in one of their last six games.
I know that they have a solid defense and the offense might improve with Davante Adams, but Petzing has done well and the Cardinals have two good WR options. This is strength vs. strength, as the Cardinals like going to WR and the Jets have allowed the fewest completions in the league, but I’m trusting what we’ve seen so far with the Cardinals twice as good as the Jets in this area.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
