NFL First Touchdown
We are back for another season with the NFL First Touchdown Scorer article! It can be tough to figure out who will score first as a team and also as an individual, but tracking the past results in an effort to predict future ones can be a tremendous help. Also, it can help with things like the Anytime TD market, 1st Quarter or 1st Half bets, and live betting.
Special thanks go out to our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who created this tracker when she was writing the article, which was passed on to me as her broadcast responsibilities increased. I’ll be keeping the NFL 1st TD Tracker updated all season long and will be releasing this article every Thursday, as noted on our VSiN Football Article Calendar. You can also find all of our weekly NFL content in the NFL Betting Hub.
Before we look ahead, though, we have to look back. Why? Because we have no data for 2025 yet. What we do have is the data from 2024 that we can refer to in hopes of shedding a little bit of light. I’ll start including the 2025 data next week, of course.
Several additions from last week. At this point, it might be wise to cut the list down to guys with four touchdowns, but there are only three weeks left, so I’ll leave it as is.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
The best all the way down to the worst. I also track teams that scored on the first possession of the game, aka the “scripted drive”.
I’m not going to post this for 2023, but for 2024, here are all of the players that scored at least three first-team TDs for their respective teams. This is NOT first TD, but first TD for the team.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 13 | 6 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 8 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 7 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 7 | 5 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 7 | 4 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 7 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 7 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 6 | 6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 6 | 5 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 6 | 4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 6 | 3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 6 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 5 | 4 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 5 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 5 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 5 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 5 | 0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 4 | 4 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 4 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 3 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAX) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 3 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 3 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett (TEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (CHI) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
Kyren Williams was very busy last season for the Rams. So were James Cook and Derrick Henry. While there has been a lot of talk about the death of the running back position and how it’s a QB-driven league, and the rule enforcement really helps pass-happy teams with PI and roughing the passer, teams want to run the ball in the red zone. It’s much harder to throw passes into a condensed field as you get closer to the end zone because route trees are a little more limited and you can’t run deep routes to occupy a safety.
Only two WR – Mike Evans and Jordan Addison – had at least six first-team TDs. Running backs and running QBs do often have shorter odds, but sometimes that will be the correct route to go.
With that, let’s get to the Week 1 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. I’ll include 2024 numbers for 4-5 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
Brief note since it looks like a mismatch: the Browns were 5-for-7 in Joe Flacco starts back in 2023 and above 50% for the season, but struggled badly last year with their random cast of QB characters.
NFL Week 1 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Cowboys (35.3%) at Eagles (76.2%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Chiefs (55%) vs. Chargers (50%) – Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (61.1%) at Falcons (52.9%) – Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Bengals (64.7%) at Browns (29.4%)
Dolphins (41.2%) at Colts (64.7%)
Raiders (35.3%) at Patriots (52.9%)
Cardinals (64.7%) at Saints (41.2%)
Steelers (22.2%) at Jets (35.3%)
Giants (23.5%) at Commanders (50%)
Panthers (47.1%) at Jaguars (41.2%)
Titans (47.1%) at Broncos (50%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
49ers (47.1%) at Seahawks (41.2%)
Lions (66.7%) at Packers (61.1%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Texans (57.9%) at Rams (31.6%)
Ravens (84.2%) at Bills (45%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Vikings (61.1%) at Bears (29.4%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+800), Michael Wilson (+2000)
Harrison and Wilson combined for eight of the 18 first team TDs last season, as Harrison actually had three of the first four before kind of disappearing later in the season. James Conner, Trey McBride, and Greg Dortch had two each. The Cardinals were actually 7/10 before the bye in this department and scored on their first possession in each of the first five games. Against a Saints team that doesn’t have good QB options, the Cardinals look like a good option this week.
Conner was actually eighth in red zone carries (51) among running backs last season, but only mustered eight rushing touchdowns and only two to open the scoring for his team.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +400, Josh Downs +1500
Taylor had the fifth-most red zone rushing attempts last season and the Colts will obviously rely heavily on him inside the 20 given Daniel Jones’ propensity for putting the ball at risk. Also, Jones hasn’t had much success throwing deep balls over the course of his career. Downs had an aDOT (average depth of target) of 6.9 yards, while Michael Pittman Jr. had an aDOT of 11 yards. I feel like Downs will be more of a red zone option and he did have 13 targets to Pittman’s 12 last season.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +500, Mark Andrews +1200
This may very well be the best price we get on Henry this season, as the bruising back scored seven 1st TDs for his team and for the game last season. For as good as the Bills offense is, they were below 50% last season and didn’t get over 50% until the playoffs in 2023. The Ravens led the league in 2023 and 2024. They are just very good at what they do and how they prepare.
Henry was sixth in red zone rushing attempts. Andrews led the TE position with 10 red zone TDs and remember that his season got off to a slow start from the car accident he was in during the preseason.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
