NFL First Touchdown
Weather will be a big factor in several NFL games this week and that could have an impact on some of the red-zone play selection from the coordinators and coaches. You definitely don’t want to have to settle for a field goal in those conditions, nor do you want to have an errant throw become a turnover and zero points. If those are the games that you are attacking from a First Touchdown Scorer standpoint, that may be something you want to keep in mind.
Before digging into Week 5, let’s look back at Week 4. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 0 (9)
RB: 14 (44)
WR: 15 (48)
TE: 2 (16)
D/ST: 0 (2)
No TD: 1 (9)
The least amount of distribution that we’ve had so far. No QBs, only two TE, and a big week for RB, doubling the previous week’s output of seven. We also have six players on the “three team first TDs list” for the season! Allen and JSN were already there. The others were added last week.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 1 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
Week 4 saw fewer red-zone trips than Week 3, but more success. I won’t post another chart, but here’s a look at red-zone success by week. Teams were more like 62% last week after sitting around 58% the week prior.
For the second straight week, seven teams scored on their first possession of the game. We now have 30 first-possession TDs for the season, with 10-6-7-7 from Weeks 1 through 4.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 4/4 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 4/4 (100%) |
| Packers | 4/4 (100%) |
| 49ers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Panthers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Patriots | 3/4 (75%) |
| Raiders | 3/4 (75%) |
| Rams | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bears | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bengals | 2/4 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 2/4 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 2/4 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 2/4 (50%) |
| Eagles | 2/4 (50%) |
| Falcons | 2/4 (50%) |
| Jets | 2/4 (50%) |
| Ravens | 2/4 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 2/4 (50%) |
| Steelers | 2/4 (50%) |
| Texans | 2/4 (50%) |
| Titans | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bills | 1/4 (25%) |
| Browns | 1/4 (25%) |
| Buccaneers | 1/4 (25%) |
| Chargers | 1/4 (25%) |
| Commanders | 1/4 (25%) |
| Dolphins | 1/4 (25%) |
| Giants | 1/4 (25%) |
| Lions | 1/4 (25%) |
| Saints | 1/4 (25%) |
| Vikings | 1/4 (25%) |
| Broncos | 0/4 (0%) |
We lost one of our 100% teams last week, as the Rams failed to score first against the Eagles. We still have the Colts, Jaguars, and Packers. The Broncos are the only team to fail to score the first TD and head coach Sean Payton announced this week that he’s taking over the play-calling duties. We’ll see if that makes the difference.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Some nuggets from Week 4:
- The Giants did score a TD! The Giants and Vikings are the only teams with two games without a TD. The Falcons, Bears, Texans, Patriots and Steelers are the other teams to fail to find the end zone in a game this season.
- The Chargers (RBs) and Seahawks (WRs) are the only teams with all their first team TDs from the same position group
- Roman Wilson (PIT) has scored the first team TD each of the last two weeks and both were scored on the Steelers’ first possession. Mike McCarthy getting it going?
- The Raiders scored the first TD in just 5/17 games last season; they already have three this season
For the final time, I will include the 2025 percentages, as the 2026 sample size just isn’t really big yet. With more data rolling in, I’ll drop the 2025 percentages starting next week.
With that, let’s get to the Week 5 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 5 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026 & 2025
Buccaneers (25%; 58.8%) at Cowboys (50%; 52.9%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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Eagles (50%; 66.7%) at Jaguars (100%; 72.2%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
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Bears (50%; 52.6%) at Packers (100%; 61.1%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Texans (50%; 52.6%) at Titans (50%; 35.3%)
Bengals (50%; 47.1%) at Dolphins (25%; 47.1%)
Raiders (75%; 29.4%) at Patriots (75%; 42.9%)
Vikings (25%; 35.3%) at Saints (25%; 17.6%)
Browns (25%; 52.9%) at Jets (50%; 17.6%)
Colts (100%; 88.2%) at Steelers (50%; 50%)
Giants (25%; 58.8%) at Commanders (25%; 29.4%)
—
Broncos (0%; 57.9%) at Chargers (25%; 44.4%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
—
Lions (25%; 64.7%) at Cardinals (50%; 35.3%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
49ers (75%; 52.6%) at Seahawks (50%; 75%)
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Ravens (50%; 52.9%) at Falcons (50%; 41.2%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Bills (25%; 52.6%) at Rams (75%; 60%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Mayer +2200, Cody White +2800
Calculated risks here. For starters, the Patriots were bad in this area last season despite a really weak schedule. I don’t think they’ll sustain this season’s pace.
But, I do think Klint Kubiak is a gifted play-caller and Kirk Cousins has taken good care of the football thus. White leads the wide receiver group with four red-zone targets and has caught three balls for touchdowns, so Cousins clearly trusts him in the scoring areas. Also, the Raiders have gotten first TDs from Jack Bech, Tre Tucker, and Ian Thomas, so Kubiak and Cousins are good at finding the forgotten man.
Mayer has a first team TD and it was actually the only game in which the Raiders didn’t find the end zone first. Each of the last two weeks, Mayer has had a higher snap count than Brock Bowers, as the Raiders are leveraging the two TE formation pretty frequently. Mayer and Bowers are both huge parts of this offense, but when you’re focused on Bowers, who is +1000, you run the risk of losing Mayer.
Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown +650, Sam LaPorta +1300
The Lions have not had much success in this department this season, but I’m still looking at them here against the Cardinals. And I’m actually bypassing Gibbs, who has scored the first TD for the team in three of the first four games. St. Brown, who leads all receivers with 12 red-zone targets, has the other one.
LaPorta leads all tight ends with nine red-zone targets and Jared Goff leads all QBs with 34 red-zone pass attempts. I’m willing to take a shot here with a pretty desperate Lions team that should be able to function well on offense inside a different dome than the one they call home. The Cardinals have already allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season and have allowed the third-highest average depth of target. I think that bodes well for these two.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +425, Tyler Huntley +2500, Devontez Walker +4500
The Falcons have faced Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, and Tyler Shough to this point, as they’ve only faced eight QB rush attempts and have allowed four yards. With Tyler Huntley likely to get the start, he’s a mobile guy who has plenty of experience leading this offense. The Falcons have certainly picked things up on offense with Michael Penix Jr. back, but the Saints have been awful early in games and I’m not going to read too much into Atlanta scoring on the first possession last week.
It’s hard to pass on Henry at this price. He already has three first team TDs this season after posting nine last season and seven the season prior.
Huntley could absolutely grab a short-yardage carry here and I could see them calling his number inside the five in hopes of avoiding some sort of disaster.
As far as Tez Walker, Zay Flowers is hurt and Ja’Kobi Lane is out for the season. Flowers will probably try to play, but those are six of Baltimore’s nine red-zone targets at WR. Walker has likely developed a rapport with Huntley and the second-teamers on offense. It’s not a bad dice roll in my opinion.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
