Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 7:
We can’t believe we’re already one-third of the way through the NFL season (six weeks of the 18-week schedule, though each team plays 17 games with one bye week) here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. But we’re thrilled we ended the first third with a 3-1-1 ATS weekend with wins on the Browns +5 in their outright 13-10 home upset of the Ravens, Titans +7 in their outright 26-20 road win at the Colts, and the Cardinals +12.5 in their shocking outright 18-16 road win at the Rams. The loss was on the Chargers +8 in their 22-6 road loss at the Chiefs, and the push was on the Jets +7 in their 26-19 road loss at the Patriots. But we’ll take that any week.
Overall on the season, our best bets here with our “dog or pass” plays are 19-13-3 ATS (59.4%) after a slow start. It helps that underdogs have been barking overall in the NFL, as our @ViewFromVegas betting recaps on Twitter/X have dogs at 48-37-6 ATS (56.5%) against our VFV Consensus Closing Lines, so we’re proud that our winning percentage is beating that by being selective.
Regular readers know I’ve written for years (especially since the 2020 pandemic) that home-field advantage doesn’t count for as much as it used to, and that’s been true again through six weeks of the NFL season as home teams are only 46-41-1 straight-up (not counting the five international games, which, by the way, I’m amazed to this day that some sites still include those games with the “designated” home and away teams) and road teams actually lead 44-38-6 ATS (53.7%). For those interested in totals, Overs improved their slight lead by going 7-6-1 in Week 6 and now lead 47-44-2.
As for our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, we had another winning week as all four of our recommended plays (all advantage teasers including the key numbers of 3 and 7, aka “Wong Teasers” for the old-timers) won with the Broncos +8.5 on Thursday Night Football, Texans +8.5 and Buccaneers +8.5 on Sunday, and the 49ers -1.5 on Monday Night Football. As I wrote last week: Because of this success, we’ll keep pointing out our teaser plays, though we always stress to not only shop around for the best line to tease (through the key numbers of 3 and 7) but also the lowest juice.
Enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes), let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 7 schedule, which again has just 14 games this weekend with the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders having their bye week.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
New England at Chicago (-3)
With the Commanders +7 covering in a 23-17 loss at the 49ers on Monday night, I have underdogs 12-0 ATS in the last dozen NFL primetime games, with the prior 11 being outright upsets (Note: some sites will say 10 in a row with the Week 3 Monday night being pick ’em, but my VFV Consensus Closing lines grade the Rams as closing as 1-point road favorites for the game that the Broncos won 30-26). Either way, it’s been an incredible run for primetime dogs. Fortunately, I’ve been on a majority of them, especially the Thursday nighters, though last week I passed on the Broncos +2.5 vs. the Seahawks but luckily included them in teasers as they pulled the 17-14 upset in overtime.
As for this TNF matchup with the Patriots visiting the Bears, I have to approach it the same way. Chicago obviously looked better with Caleb Williams returning in their 31-23 win at Atlanta on Sunday, though the defense let the Falcons back in the game. The Patriots are also looking better after a slow start, but this line is too short for me to bet the dog here, so again let’s start the NFL weekend by moving the Patriots up to +9 and through the key number of 7 (and turning the +3 from a push to a win). As I wrote in the intro, shop around for not only the best line but the lowest juice on 2-teamers.
Best Bet: Patriots +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests, higher if offered +3.5, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. New Orleans
The NFL’s international tour moves to France this week with the Steelers and Saints playing in Saint-Denis, a suburb approximately 5 miles north of central Paris. We’re uneasy with the game being held so close to the extreme civil unrest and the possibility of terrorists targeting the game, but we can only handicap the games they put in front of us. The advance line for this game last week was Steelers -1 at Circa Sports. On Sunday, the Steelers rallied to beat the Buccaneers 26-19 in OT, and the Saints held off the Giants 34-27. The line reopened Steelers -2 and has continued to climb early this week and has crossed the key number of 3 to Steelers -3.5. That’s too much of an adjustment for me, as the Steelers aren’t a juggernaut and the Saints can certainly be right in this game until the final horn. This could certainly come down to a field goal either way, so the hook could prove vital.
Best Bet: Saints +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Saints 67/33 in ATS contests, but Steelers still 67/33 in SU pools – as I’ve written the past few weeks, I use these percentages when I feel that if these teams played this game three times that the underdog would win one while the favorite would win two but only one by more than the spread).
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-3)
The Panthers lead the weak NFC South at 3-2 with the Buccaneers in last place at 1-5, though if the Bucs win here they’ll be within 1.5 games with more than half the season to go. Rookie Jalon Daniels picked some fans (especially among Baker Mayfield detractors) with the 24-16 upset of the Cowboys in Week 5’s Thursday nighter, but the Bucs weren’t able to hold the lead against the Steelers this past Sunday while the Panthers benefitted from playing a depleted Eagles team. Again, I can’t pull the trigger on the short number, but this definitely looks like a one-score game, so again the dog is the teaser play.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 65/35 in SU pools).
Miami at New York Jets (-5)
Sometimes when we find the worst matchup of the week that most handicappers are avoiding, I often find value in the underdog (or at least make a case for fading the undeserving favorite). The advance line was Jets -4, and I certainly don’t understand it being re-opened at -5.5 after the Jets lost 26-19 at the Patriots (though they pushed ATS) while the Dolphins didn’t play on their bye week. But I also don’t understand who would be betting the winless Dolphins +5.5 as if that’s a bargain. Even though this isn’t the strongest early Sunday slate, there are much more intriguing matchups where I’d prefer to put my bets and eyeballs. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Jets still 70/30 in SU pools).
Cleveland (-2) at Tennessee
This could be seen as another ugly matchup, but the Browns are actually 4-2 and tied for first place in the AFC North with the Steelers and Ravens, while the Titans got off the schneid with their first win of the season in their 26-20 win at the Colts thanks to a blocked punt returned for a TD and the Colts beating themselves (yes, maybe I’m a little bitter for being eliminated by the Colts in Circa Survivor, but at least I had the Titans +7). The Browns are favored here, but while the Titans are a bit of a “swagger play” after getting the first win, I’d like to point out that since the 34-10 blowout to the Jaguars in Week 1, the Browns have played all one–score games whether playing good teams or bad. This should be the same, so I’ll just add the Titans to our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
Best Bet: Titans +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New York Giants at Houston (-10.5)
This game has seen the craziest line move of the week (with the possible exception of Bengals-Ravens or Cowboys-Eagles on MNF, but we’ll get to those later). The advance line was Texans -7 -115 last week before the Texans beat the Jaguars 34-31 in London and the Giants came up short in a 34-27 home loss to the Saints. The line re-opened Texans -8.5 on Sunday afternoon and has steadily climbed to -10.5 at most Vegas sportsbooks as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s insane to me, as the Texans were 0-4 just two weeks ago and J.J. McCarthy replaced Jameis Winston on Sunday for the Giants. The Texans are also playing after coming back from London without a bye week, which didn’t work for the Eagles this past week (though they had many other issues). I’ll gladly take the bonus points here as the Texans shouldn’t be favored by this much and McCarthy might just be the answer for the Giants (or at least good enough to get us a back-door cover).
Best Bet: Giants +10.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, but Texans still 75/25 in SU pools).
San Francisco (-3) at Atlanta
The advance line for this game was 49ers -4 last week and stayed the same after the Falcons lost 31-23 at home to the Bears, getting blown out early before rallying to within one score. Then, after the 49ers beat the Commanders 23-17 on MNF but didn’t cover as 7-point favorites, the line dropped to around -3 -115 at most books on Tuesday morning. The juice has actually flipped to the Falcons +3 -120 as of Wednesday afternoon, but I don’t agree with the adjustment. The 49ers are still undefeated at 6-0, and I’d need more than a field goal to fade them here. Actually, while I wouldn’t talk anyone out of teasing the Falcons over a TD, I don’t like that nearly as well as other similarly priced teaser dogs this weekend.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 67/33 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Minnesota (-6.5)
Now here’s a line move I am willing to fade. The advance line was Vikings -4 last week while the undefeated team was on an early bye week and the Colts were upset 26-20 by the Titans. The line then reopened Vikings -5.5 on Sunday afternoon and has since steamed to Vikings -6.5. I get that the Vikings are undefeated and led by great defense, allowing a league-low 12.8 points per game and No. 2 in yards allowed at 259.8 ypg, but the offense has been inconsistent with Kyler Murray, and they’ve only won two games by more than a touchdown (and only beat the Dolphins by 5). As I wrote above, I’m bitter about the Colts losing for me in Circa Survivor, but if they clean up the turnovers and special teams miscues, they can keep this close.
Best Bet: Colts +6.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 67/33 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati (pick ’em) at Baltimore
This line has been all over the map, too, for this key AFC North showdown as the Ravens (4-2) host the Bengals (3-2 and off their bye). The advance line was Ravens -4 last week as it was looking like Lamar Jackson would skip the Week 6 game against the Browns but return for this matchup. The Ravens lost 13-10 with Tyler Huntley starting against the Browns, and the line dipped to Ravens -3, but the last few days the line has dropped to pick ’em and even some books going to Bengals -1, a sure sign that many bettors are not expecting Jackson to be able to return (and he didn’t practice again Wednesday). I faded the Ravens last week with the Browns and would have done the same here if I was still getting at least a field goal, but that’s long gone, so we’ll pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bengals 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Denver (-4.5) at Arizona
Moving to the Sunday afternoon games (we only get three of them again for the third straight week), we have the Broncos (4-2) visiting the surprisingly feisty Cardinals (2-4 with outright upsets of the Chargers and Rams and also 3-3 ATS with a cover against the 49ers). They’re tempting here, but obviously they’re not sneaking up on anyone anymore, and this line is too short for me. They have been blown out by the Seahawks, Lions, and even the Giants, so I can’t take the short number.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Broncos still 67/33 in SU pools).
Green Bay at Detroit (-3.5)
Speaking of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (with Halloween approaching, I’ve been watching the classic on Turner Classic Movies, including Bugs Bunny and Sylvester/Tweety versions), teams like the Cardinals and the Lions (3-2) fit the bill. This is a key midseason NFC North battle as the Packers (4-2) are also chasing the Vikings. I have a Super Bowl future-book ticket on the Lions from my pick in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide back in July, but their inconsistency bothers me, and Jordan Love has been better the last two weeks in the wins over the Bears and Cowboys. This should come down to a field goal, and I’ll take the Packers as long as we’re getting the hook.
Best Bet: Packers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Lions still 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Las Vegas
OK, so is this where the preseason Super Bowl favorite Rams start to turn this around? They’re scuffling at 2-4 and can’t use a tough schedule as an excuse anymore after losing to the Cardinals, but it does get easier for a few weeks as they face the Raiders here and then the Chargers, Commanders and Cardinals before it gets tough again. The Raiders have lost three straight after their surprising 3-0 start, but it’s interesting to note they’re still a league-bet 5-1 ATS as they’ve covered in home losses to the Chiefs and Bills in two of the last three weeks, with their only non-cover, 45-17 at the Patriots in between in Week 5. They’re tempting here again as home dogs, but I’m actually gonna pass here as I can see a repeat of the Patriots game if the Rams offense suddenly plays to its potential.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Rams 75/25 in SU pools).
Kansas City at Seattle (-2.5/-3)
The advance line last week was Seahawks -3, but after they lost 17-14 in OT last Thursday at the Broncos and the Chiefs came off their bye week and improved to 5-0 with their 22-6 win over the Chargers on Sunday, the line dipped to Seahawks -2.5. Since then, it’s bounced back between 2.5 and 3, and that’s why we list it as -2.5/-3 in the header, as those lines can be found at different books, though usually with added juice on the side you want. The Chiefs are certainly tempting anytime as underdogs, but I still say the line is too short against the defending Super Bowl champs. But we certainly love teasing the Chiefs through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 or higher in what should be a one-score game.
Best Bet: Chiefs +8.5/+9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3 and certainly if your pool offers +3.5, but Seahawks still 65/35 in SU pools).
Dallas (-4.5) at Philadelphia
The Monday nighter has lost a lot of luster with the Jalen Hurts blood-clot saga, but both teams are 2-4 and still hopeful of catching the Giants (3-2-1) in the NFC East. The advance line last week was Eagles -1 before all the updates on Hurts’ condition and has obviously flipped favoritism with him now being out for the year. I understand the move, but I’m still not sure it’s fully warranted with the Cowboys coming in off back-to-back losses to the Buccaneers and Packers. The market obviously doesn’t respect Philly backup QB Tanner McKee, but he did play better in the second half against the Panthers, pulling them within 19-14 with a TD pass before losing 25-14. And now he gets to face a Dallas non-D allowing 382.5 yards per game, No. 30 in the league.
Best Bet: Eagles +4.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Eagles 67/33 in ATS contests, but Cowboys still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 7 NFL best bets, visit the Week 7 NFL Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
SPONSORED
SCOTT RICKENBACH from Doc’s Sports is on fire in football (NFL + CFB) and in the MLB playoffs!
He has won 16 of 18 MLB highest-rated (7*/8*) picks for an 89% win rate. His MLB is +19,285
since joining Doc’s in August of 2025 (DOCUMENTED HERE), including +14,650 in 2026!
His hot MLB Run is 13-2 and +5,065 in profit (DOCUMENTED HERE).
Rickenbach won another big play (7*) on Sunday (Packers 23-13) as part of a 3-0 NFL SWEEP! His Football is 39-26 and +4,340 this season (DOCUMENTED HERE)
Get your free trial with him at docsports.com
