NFL First Touchdown
The Saints, Giants, 49ers, and Texans are all idle this week, which means we are without one of the best teams when it comes to scoring the first touchdown and also one of the worst. With bye weeks, the percentages have gotten a little wonky, as some teams have played six games and some have played seven, but it’ll all even out in the end.
Before digging into Week 8, let’s look back at Week 7. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 2 (12)
RB: 8 (76)
WR: 8 (72)
TE: 9 (38)
D/ST: 0 (3)
No TD: 1 (13)
I felt like seven first team TDs for the TE position two weeks ago was tops for the season, but I know for sure that nine is. Tight ends really had a big day in this department, sort of following a trend we saw last season when that position was on a torrid pace, but fell apart late. We’ll see if that’s the case this season. It should be noted that some of the usual suspects were involved, but also Nick Muse, Davis Allen, and Mason Taylor, so some backup and third-string TEs got lost by the opposing defenses.
As far as the frequent flyer list, we added Jonathan Taylor, Mike Gesicki, Bucky Irving, and CeeDee Lamb to the group. JSN moved up to four first team TDs.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 3 | 0 |
In terms of Week 7 red-zone efficiency, we saw about a 56% success rate, on par with most weeks for this season. There have been 419 red-zone TD this season out of 545 total touchdowns.
You can see the weekly breakdown and year-to-date results here.
We saw 10 first team TDs on the opening possession, a big upgrade from last week. That also tied for the most of the season with Week 1, where teams had a ton of time to prep for their first opponent. We’re up to 54 for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9-5-10 from Weeks 1 through 7.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| 49ers | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Colts | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Packers | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Rams | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Jaguars | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Patriots | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Panthers | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bears | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Raiders | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Ravens | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Steelers | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Texans | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Bengals | 3/6 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 3/6 (50%) |
| Broncos | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Buccaneers | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Cardinals | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Cowboys | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Eagles | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Falcons | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Giants | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Jets | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Seahawks | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Titans | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Commanders | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Dolphins | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Lions | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Bills | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Chargers | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Vikings | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Browns | 1/7 (14.3%) |
The Packers are no longer perfect for the season, so we have zero 100% teams and zero 0% teams. Four teams have scored the first TD six times and four teams have scored the first TD just once. Ironically, the Lions were just 1-for-5 on the season and they scored the first TD against the Packers last week.
Some nuggets from Week 7:
- 15 of the 27 first team TD scorers were first-timers for this season; the Chiefs did not score a TD
- The first possession scorers? Ravens, Lions (first time), Colts, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, Eagles (first time), 49ers, Bucs, Titans (first time)
- With those three first-timers, the only teams not to score on their first possession are the Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, and Saints
- The Bears started 0/2, but are 4/5 over the last five games; so have the Steelers
- The Broncos are 3/3 since Sean Payton took over calling plays
- The Lions scored the first TD for the first time since Week 1
- The Vikings have not scored an offensive TD for the first TD of the game; the lone time they did it was a D/ST score
- The 49ers started 0/1 and are 6/6 since, including four TD on their first possession
With that, let’s get to the Week 8 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 8 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026
Panthers (66.7%) at Packers (85.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
—
Vikings (16.7%) at Lions (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Raiders (57.1%) at Jets (42.9%)
Cardinals (42.9%) at Cowboys (42.9%)
Falcons (42.9%) at Buccaneers (42.9%)
Ravens (57.1%) at Bills (16.7%)
Colts (85.7%) at Jaguars (83.3%)
Titans (42.9%) at Bengals (50%)
Browns (14.3%) at Steelers (57.1%)
—
Chargers (16.7%) at Rams (85.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
—
Chiefs (50%) at Broncos (42.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Patriots (71.4%) at Dolphins (33.3%)
—
Eagles (42.9%) at Commanders (33.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Bears (57.1%) at Seahawks (42.9%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Germie Bernard +1200, Pat Freiermuth +1400
The Steelers have done well in this area recently and did score the first TD when these two teams met on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back. It was Roman Wilson who had the first TD in that game and it was actually his second straight week scoring the first TD. Unfortunately, Wilson got one target in Week 5 against the Colts and that was it, as he is on IR.
Since Wilson went down, Bernard leads WR with four red-zone targets, while DK Metcalf has three. The Browns have only allowed four rushing TD against 11 passing TD, so I’m looking away from Jaylen Warren, even though he could certainly end up catching a pass and running it in. But, Bernard is the guy I prefer over Metcalf here, especially with the slightly better price.
On the Freiermuth front, he’s kind of fallen out of favor in the scoring areas to Darnell Washington of late, but Freiermuth did score Pittsburgh’s first TD against Kevin Stefanski and the Falcons and also had a receiving score in the first game against Cleveland. Perhaps he’ll be the forgotten guy in the scoring areas this week and moving forward.
Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers +800, Tre Tucker +1400
Michael Mayer has gotten a pretty decent workload this season, but he has not been used at all in the scoring areas. Mayer has two red-zone targets to eight for Bowers, with Mayer’s two coming over the first three weeks of the season. Bowers trails Trey McBride, George Kittle, Colston Loveland, Sam LaPorta, and Isaiah Likely in red-zone targets thus far. The Jets have only allowed one TD to a TE this season, but Bowers is more like a WR lining up at TE.
Tucker has been the most trusted target for Kirk Cousins thus far. Coby White had some targets early in the season, but Tucker has four catches on six targets in the red zone. He had a TD catch last week and had three targets and a TD catch in Week 6.
With the Raiders stepping down in class pretty noticeably this week, I think Klint Kubiak will want to start fast, especially with the calls for Fernando Mendoza getting louder.
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson +475, Hunter Henry +1000
Stevenson is my favorite short shot of the week. While the Dolphins have only allowed three rushing touchdowns, they have allowed five receiving touchdowns by running backs. Stevenson has 24 targets and is tied for third on the team. TreVeyon Henderson only has seven and Corey Kiner, who has been used a bit as a runner in the red zone, only has two. So, Stevenson has two paths to scoring here in my opinion.
How’s this for a stat? The Dolphins have only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers this season. A lot of that probably has to do with game state, as we only see 78 targets and 56 catches for WR against the Miami defense. However, they do not cover tight ends. Opposing TE are tied for fifth with 44 catches and sixth in receiving yards with 448. Only the Lions, Commanders, and Raiders have allowed more receiving TD by TE.
Henry and Eli Raridon have each gotten some work with five red-zone targets apiece, but Henry has caught four of them for 29 yards and two TD, while Raridon has caught two of them for just two yards and that Week 1 score.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
