The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-28-1 ATS since 2013, 67.4%, +27.3 Units, 31.7% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)

* Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-47 SU and 34-63 ATS (35.1%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-19 SU but 9-30 ATS (23.1%) in divisional play in that same time frame).
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR), WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

* Home teams have dominated in the Ravens-Bills series, going 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3 vs BAL)

* Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been phenomenal as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 38-67 SU but 67-35-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10 at JAX)

NFL Streaks Betting System #18: Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 15-46-1 SU and 16-43-3 ATS (27.1%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+3 at DET), DENVER (+1.5 vs KC)

* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 17-14 SU but 7-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs ATL)

* Won/lost records have mattered on Monday Night Football, as teams with the better record are 53-45 SU but just 39-57-2 ATS (40.6%) in the last 98 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at SEA)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: CINCINNATI -10 vs TEN (projections have line at CIN -14.9)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(109) CAROLINA (3-3) at (110) GREEN BAY (4-3)
* CAROLINA is 27-36 ATS (42.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at GB)
* GREEN BAY is 96-24 SU and 74-44 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 27-19-1 SU but 17-30 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

(239) MINNESOTA (6-0) at (240) DETROIT (4-2)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 90-62 SU and 95-56-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 6-24 SU and 10-21 ATS as a divisional road underdog since 2010
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (+3 at DET)
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 18-13 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 46.5)
* DETROIT is 27-16-2 ATS (62.8%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is on a 23-16 SU and 24-14-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 19-9 SU and 18-9-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs MIN)

(241) LAS VEGAS (3-4) at (242) NY JETS (2-5)
* LAS VEGAS is 42-58 ATS (42%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 41-56 ATS (42.3%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+1.5 at NYJ)
* NY JETS are on a 9-24 SU and 9-23 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS are 13-29 ATS (31%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (-1.5 vs LVR)

(243) ARIZONA (2-5) at (244) DALLAS (3-4)
* ARIZONA is 38-27 ATS (58.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 38-30 ATS (55.9%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 32-14 SU and 28-18 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 23-19 SU and 15-26 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (-7 vs ARI)

(245) ATLANTA (3-4) at (246) TAMPA BAY (2-5)
* ATLANTA is on 14-28 SU and 12-30 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is on 9-23 SU and 8-22 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 17-14 SU but 7-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 39-62 ATS (38.6%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 39-60 ATS (39.4%) as a favorite since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is 20-13 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 16-11 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-TB (o/u at 44.5)

(247) BALTIMORE (4-3) at (248) BUFFALO (5-1)
* BALTIMORE is 15-14 SU and 20-8 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE is 15-17 SU but 23-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is on runs of 9-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* BALTIMORE is 50-28-1 ATS (64.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+3 at BUF)
* BUFFALO is 46-34 ATS (57.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3 vs BAL)

(249) INDIANAPOLIS (2-5) at (250) JACKSONVILLE (4-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-25 SU but 29-13 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 26-27 SU and 38-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 18-23 SU but 24-18 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in the last seven following up a game in which his team scored <=14 points
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of INDIANAPOLIS (+10 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-44 ATS (43.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-10 vs IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 36-18 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-IND (o/u at 46.5)

(253) TENNESSEE (1-6) at (254) CINCINNATI (4-2)
* TENNESSEE is 38-53-1 ATS (41.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
* TENNESSEE is on 11-48 SU and 17-41-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 23-21 SU and 26-17 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of TENNESSEE (+10 at CIN)
* CINCINNATI is 77-64 SU and 84-57 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS (68.6%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. The average line was -1.1, Team average PF: 26.5
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-10 vs TEN)
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 15-10 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-CIN (o/u at 46.5)

(255) CLEVELAND (5-2) at (256) PITTSBURGH (5-2)
* CLEVELAND is 27-41 ATS (39.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is on a 10-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)
* PITTSBURGH is 113-83 Under the total (57.7%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PIT (o/u at 39.5)

(257) LA CHARGERS (0-6) at (258) LA RAMS (3-4)
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 10-4 SU and 9-4-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 13-16 SU and 9-18 ATS in its last 28 November games
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+6.5 at LAR)
* LA CHARGERS are on 37-16 Under the total surge in Sunday games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAR (o/u at 45.5)

(259) KANSAS CITY (5-1) at (260) DENVER (5-2)
* KANSAS CITY is 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 58-47-1 ATS (55.2%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-1.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 20-7 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 114-77 Under the total (59.7%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

(261) NEW ENGLAND (4-3) at (262) MIAMI (1-5)
* MIAMI is 65-36 ATS (64.4%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 41-25 ATS (62.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 59-48 ATS (55.1%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+7 vs NE)

(263) PHILADELPHIA (2-5) at (264) WASHINGTON (1-4)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-21 SU and 9-25 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 16-5 SU but 6-14 ATS vs. poor teams, being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+6 at WSH)
* WASHINGTON is 26-42 ATS (38.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 21-36 ATS (36.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 13-9 SU and ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 17-6 Under the total in the last 23 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 40.5)

(265) CHICAGO (5-2) at (266) SEATTLE (4-3)
* CHICAGO is 36-50 ATS (41.9%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 37-46-1 ATS (44.6%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at SEA)
* SEATTLE is 23-12 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-16 SU and 10-23 ATS (30.3%) when playing at home the next week since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs ATL)

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 9-23-2 SU but 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) in their last 34 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 at GB)

CRAZY LOW-SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been phenomenal as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 38-67 SU but 67-35-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10 at JAX)
*WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY at DEN (-1.5 CURRENTLY)*

CLOSE GAMES
Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-47 SU and 34-63 ATS (35.1%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-19 SU but 9-30 ATS (23.1%) in divisional play in that same time frame).

System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR), WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

Teams that just lost a heartbreaker (<= 3 points) to a divisional rival and are now playing in a less competitive game (>= +7 underdog or <= -7 favorite) have had totals go Over at a 34-15 (69.4%) rate since the start of the 2017 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-JAX (o/u at 46.5)

Home teams coming off a high-scoring close win (>= 27 PF, <=3 point differential) have been a strong fade candidate recently, going 79-66-1 SU but 54-86-6 ATS (38.6%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-3 vs BAL), MIAMI (+7 vs NE)

NFL Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for NFL teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

NFL Team Strength Betting System #3:
In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 36-31 SU and 45-21-1 ATS (68.2%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6 at WSH)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #5:
With at least four games under their belt, favorites with a win percentage at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 36-43-2 SU and 28-51-2 ATS (35.4%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3 vs MIN)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #8:
Defensively dominant road teams allowing less than 15 PPG have gone just 50-66-1 SU and 43-74 ATS (36.8%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+3 at DET)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #12:
Teams that struggle to run the ball and are averaging <60 RYPG are 18-34 SU and 16-36 ATS (30.8%) at home since 2015.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #13:
Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-106 SU and 146-111-4 ATS (56.8%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+3 at BUF), NEW ENGLAND (-7 at MIA)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #14:
Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 62-62-1 SU and 48-74-3 ATS (39.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS (-1.5 vs LVR), WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #17:
Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether real bad teams have a chance to compete: those with -10 PPG differentials are 117-121 SU but 143-91-4 ATS (61.1%) as long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 238 games.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+6.5 at LAR)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

– There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 34-26 SU but 23-35-2 ATS (39.7%) in the last 60. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%).
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

– There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 26-25 SU and 32-18-1 ATS (64%) record.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 at GB)

– Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 31-36 SU and 28-38-1 ATS (42.4%).
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

TNF Team Trends
Carolina 3-7 SU and ATS since 2014
Green Bay 8-6 SU and 8-4-2 ATS in the last 14
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

– Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 63-46-2 ATS (57.8%) in their last 111.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

– Home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 22-13 SU and 20-14-1 ATS (58.8%) record since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

–  Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 19-27-1 SU and 21-25-1 ATS (45.7%) in their last 47, but those coming off a win are on a current 35-12 SU and 27-20 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

SNF Team Trend
Philadelphia 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6 at WSH)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

– In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 29-23 SU and 32-20 ATS (61.5%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 vs CHI)

– Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 53-45 SU but just 39-57-2 ATS (40.6%) in the L98 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at SEA)

MNF Team Trend
Chicago 11-5-1 Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Green Bay 21-10-1 SU and 22-9-1 ATS in the last 32
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs CAR)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Carolina 8-15 SU and 8-14-1 ATS in the last 23 primetime games
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at GB)
Chicago 7-15 SU and 10-12 ATS in the last 22
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at SEA)
Washington 14-28 SU and 15-26-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Seattle 14-8 Under in the last 22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 18-51 SU and 19-46-4 ATS (29.2%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7 vs NE)

NFL Streaks Betting System #18: Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 15-46-1 SU and 16-43-3 ATS (27.1%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+3 at DET), DENVER (+1.5 vs KC)
*WATCH FOR CLEVELAND at PIT (+3.5 CURRENTLY)*

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-28-1 ATS since 2013, 67.4%, +27.3 Units, 31.7% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 41-18-2 since 2013, 69.5%, +21.2 Units, 35.9% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PIT (o/u at 39.5)

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 79-41-2 ATS since 2010, 65.8%, +33.9 Units, 28.3% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)

Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 48-9 SU and 37-19-1 ATS since 2008, 66.1%, +16.1 Units, 28.8% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+10 at CIN)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

 Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. CLEVELAND
· Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run overall in pre-bye week games
·The Steelers have won their L4 pre-bye week divisional games SU and ATS
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)
Tennessee Titans Pre-Bye week game: 11/1 at CINCINNATI
· Titans are 6-2 ATS in L8 pre-bye week games as underdogs
· Tennessee has gone 4-8 ATS in its L12 pre-bye week road/neutral contests
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+10 at CIN)

Post Bye-Week Trends and Systems

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-10-1 ATS since 2014, 65.5%, +8.1 Units, 27.9% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-10 vs IND)

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 47-28-1 since 2021, 62.7%, +16.2 Units, 21.6% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAR (o/u at 45.5)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 26-19 SU and 28-14-3 ATS since 2008, 66.7%, +12.6 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 62)
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-10 vs IND), LA CHARGERS (+6.5 at LAR)

Post-bye week system #9:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 34-19-1 Under since 1992, 64.1%, +13.2 Units, 24.9% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-JAX (o/u at 46.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Buffalo Bills Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. BALTIMORE
·  Buffalo is on a 11-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games, and is 22-10-2 ATS dating back to 1993
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3 vs BAL)
· The Bills are on a 4-0 Under the total run in post-bye week home games, allowing just 13.8 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-BUF (o/u at 54.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. INDIANAPOLIS
· Jacksonville has lost its last five post-bye week divisional games, going 2-2-1 ATS
· The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week home gamesT
rends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of JACKSONVILLE (-10 vs IND)
Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye week game: 11/1 at LA RAMS
·  The Chargers have gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week road contests
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+6.5 at LAR)
·  The Chargers on 3-0 Under the total streak in post-bye week games versus NFC foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAR (o/u at 45.5)
Washington Commanders Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. PHILADELPHIA
·  Washington is just 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS in its last 18 post-bye week games
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-6 vs PHI)
·  The Commanders are on 1-6 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week divisional games, and 4-0-1 Under the total run in such games as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 40.5)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from the same-season rematch data over the last 15 seasons

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Cleveland: lengthy 12-30-1 ATS rematch skid L43
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at PIT)

–  Denver: 10-17 SU and 11-16 ATS L27 tries
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+1.5 vs KC)

–  Philadelphia: just 11-14 SU and 8-16-1 ATS L25 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 at WSH)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
Washington: 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS L14 at home
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs PHI)

Rematch Betting System
Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 93-29 SU and 75-47 ATS (61.5%) in the rematch
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 at DEN)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(109) CAROLINA at (110) GREEN BAY
* CAROLINA is 4-5 SU but 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with Green Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 at GB)

(239) MINNESOTA at (240) DETROIT
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Vikings-Lions divisional rivalry at Ford Field
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 46.5)

(241) LAS VEGAS at (242) NY JETS
* Home teams are 11-3 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in the Raiders-Jets set since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-1.5 vs LVR)

(243) ARIZONA at (244) DALLAS
* ARIZONA is 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine matchups with Dallas, including three outright wins as +6.5 or longer underdogs
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at DAL)

(245) ATLANTA at (246) TAMPA BAY
* ATLANTA is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS versus divisional foe Tampa Bay in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at TB)

(247) BALTIMORE at (248) BUFFALO
* Home teams have controlled in Ravens-Bills series, going 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3 vs BAL)

(249) INDIANAPOLIS at (250) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE has dominated Indianapolis historically, sporting a 14-8 SU and 18-3-1 ATS record in their last 22 meetings
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-10 vs IND)

(253) TENNESSEE at (254) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games versus Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-10 vs TEN)

(255) CLEVELAND at (256) PITTSBURGH
* Home teams are 15-2-1 SU and 15-3 ATS in the Browns-Steelers AFC North rivalry since the start of the 2018 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3.5 vs CLE)

(257) LA CHARGERS at (258) LA RAMS
* Over the total is 6-2 in the Chargers-Rams set since 1994
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-LAR (o/u at 45.5)

(259) KANSAS CITY at (260) DENVER
* Home teams are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the Chiefs-Broncos divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+1.5 vs KC)
* Under the total has converted in seven straight of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

(261) NEW ENGLAND at (262) MIAMI
* Favorites are on 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge in the Patriots-Dolphins set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at MIA)

(263) PHILADELPHIA at (264) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Eagles-Commanders divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 40.5)

(265) CHICAGO at (266) SEATTLE
* CHICAGO is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the last three of the series with Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3 at SEA)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami) as well as re-tread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: BAL(+3)-BUF(-3), ARI(+7)-DAL, CLE(+3.5)-PIT, LVR(+1.5)-NYJ, NE-MIA(+7))

–   Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 175-195-10 ATS (47.3%). Road/Neutral games – 202-181-7 ATS (52.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI

–  As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 102-75 SU but 75-90-11 ATS (45.5%) over the last decade.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO

–   Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+1 to +3 small underdog lines) where rookie head coaches are able to hold their own best against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 76-83-2 SU and 88-71-2 ATS (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, LAS VEGAS

–  Since 2016, in games #1-#9 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 204-217-15 ATS, good for 48.5%. In games #10 and later, they’ve gone 173-159-2 ATS (52.1%). One special angle on this we find that rookie head coaches as small home favorites of -1 to -4 points in games #1-#9 are on a 15-25-2 ATS (37.5%) skid.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO

–   Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 108-117-2 ATS (48%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 76-91-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MIAMI

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: ATL(+2.5)-TB, TEN(+10)-CIN, CLE-PIT(-3.5))

–   Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 67-59 ATS (53.2%). Road/Neutral games – 65-65 ATS (50%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

–  Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 110-72 SU but just 74-97-11 ATS, for 43.3%! As dogs (or pick em), 93-191-1 SU and 142-137-6 ATS (50.9%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

–  Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 78-112 ATS (41.1%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, TENNESSEE, PITTSBURGH

–  Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a respectable 95-87 ATS (52.2%) record in their first seasons, including 45-36 ATS (55.6%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 153-185 ATS (45.3%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE

–  Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 27-19 ATS (58.7%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 16-5 ATS run heading into 2026.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 32-58 SU and 37-52-1 ATS (41.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS (+1.5 at NYJ), MINNESOTA (+3 at DET)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 95-82 SU and 98-77-2 ATS (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS (+1.5 at NYJ), NY JETS (-1.5 vs LVR)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 76 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 38-38 SU and 33-42-1 ATS (44%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+3 at DET)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-36 SU and 51-26 ATS (66.2%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5-points or fewer. The last 29 such games are 19-10 Under the total (65.5%) as well.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3 at DET)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 46.5)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 74-52 ATS (58.7%) record for +16.8 units and an ROI of +13.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 225-274 ATS (45.1%) for -76.4 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY, WASHINGTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 225-277 ATS (44.8%) for -79.7 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT, ATLANTA, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 139-113 ATS (55.2%) for +14.7 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5 points favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 147-123 ATS (54.4%) record for +11.7 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS, SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “supermajority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 15-28 ATS (34.9%) for -15.7 units and an ROI of -36.5%.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of BETS have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 144-164 ATS (46.8%) and 142-163 ATS (46.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, WASHINGTON, SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 159-123 ATS (56.4%) record for +23.7 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 92-64 ATS for 59% and +21.6 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, ARIZONA, ATLANTA, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS, SEATTLE
Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 193-218 ATS (47%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, NEW ENGLAND

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 179-137 ATS (56.6%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CAR-GB, BAL-BUF, TEN-CIN, ARI-DAL, MIN-DET, CHI-SEA
UNDER – IND-JAX

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-JAX, LAC-LAR, KC-DEN

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (20-18 for +0.2 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Oer looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): BAL-BUF, LVR-NYJ, NE-MIA, CHI-SEA

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 117-135 (46.4%) for -31.5 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): TEN-CIN, ATL-TB, NE-MIA, CHI-SEA

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +1.5 (+1.9)
2(tie). LAS VEGAS +1.5 (+1.6)
ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.6)
4(tie). INDIANAPOLIS +10 (+1.1)
PHILADELPHIA +6 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI -10 (+4.9)
2. DALLAS -7 (+3.1)
3(tie). GREEN BAY -3.5 (+2.1)
PITTSBURGH -3.5 (+2.1)
5. NEW ENGLAND -7 (+1.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +7 (+2.0)
2. CHICAGO +3 (+1.7)
3. INDIANAPOLIS +10 (+1.0)
4. LA CHARGERS +6.5 (+0.9)
5. LAS VEGAS +1.5 (+0.8)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -3 (+1.3)
2. CINCINNATI -10 (+1.1)
3. TAMPA BAY -2.5 (+0.6)
4. WASHINGTON -6 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-WSH OVER 40.5 (+2.7)
2. TEN-CIN OVER 46.5 (+1.6)
3(tie). LVR-NYJ OVER 45.5 (+1.2)
LAC-LAR OVER 45.5 (+1.2)
5. KC-DEN OVER 40.5 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DET UNDER 46.5 (-2.7)
2. ARI-DAL UNDER 54.5 (-2.6)
3. ATL-TB UNDER 44.5 (-1.4)
4. NE-MIA UNDER 43.5 (-1.0)
5. CLE-PIT UNDER 39.5 (-0.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +10 (+2.5)
2. ATLANTA +2.5 (+2.0)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+1.4)
4(tie). CAROLINA +3.5 (+1.2)
PHILADELPHIA +6 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH -3.5 (+4.1)
2. CINCINNATI -10 (+3.5)
3. DALLAS -7 (+3.1)
4. NEW ENGLAND -7 (+1.0)
5. LA RAMS -6.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KC-DEN OVER 40.5 (+1.4)
2. CAR-GB OVER 47.5 (+1.0)
3(tie). LVR-NYJ OVER 45.5 (+0.8)
ATL-TB OVER 44.5 (+0.8)
CHI-SEA OVER 46.5 (+0.8)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DET UNDER 46.5 (-2.6)
2. TEN-CIN UNDER 46.5 (-1.8)
3. CLE-PIT UNDER 39.5 (-1.1)
4. LAC-LAR UNDER 45.5 (-0.2)

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