NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
I for one am very thankful for Thanksgiving week in the NFL. I cashed multiple FTD (first touchdown) tickets yet again, and my betting system had one of its best weeks ever. If you haven’t been following along, I keep track of every team’s first touchdown in every game to find trends within the teams, and target mismatches between good and bad FTD teams. While it’s still tricky to figure out exactly which player will score, the system correctly predicted which team would find the end zone first in 13 of 16 Week 12 games. Narrowing the field in half right off the bat definitely doesn’t hurt, and my system has been helping me do that all season.
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I’ll preview Week 13 in a moment, but here are my takeaways from this most recent batch of games.
Week 13 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Jakobi Meyers: I owe Meyers an apology, actually. Since about Week 6, I’ve been applauding Meyers and cashing tickets on him left and right. I skipped him this week because the matchup against the Chiefs scared me as they had about the same FTD success rate as the Raiders. But of course, Meyers scored his league-leading SIXTH TFTD (team-first touchdown) of the season, five of which were the first of the game. Considering we’re only 12 games into the season, that is an extremely impressive total. He was a whopping +1600 this week at DraftKings. He clearly should have been the favorite! Why the books aren’t catching on, I’ll never understand, but I’m happy about it.
Saints’ opponents: New Orleans started the season super hot, scoring the game’s first touchdown in four of five games and they haven’t done it since. They’re middle of the pack when it comes to both offense and defense, so it’s puzzling how they’ve been so bad at scoring first lately. I’ll be looking to target players on their opponent from here on out.
Foes
The Ravens: This feels weird because Baltimore usually ends up in the ‘friends’ section of my articles. And despite scoring first AGAIN this past week, they messed up and did it with WR Zay Flowers. Entering the week, the Ravens had scored their first TD with either a running back or Lamar Jackson in all but three games. Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and the like had been cashing tickets for me all season. Even worse, they’re on a BYE this week so we can’t bet them this weekend. I will miss you, sweet ticket cashers.
Jonathan Taylor: The Colts RB scored his third straight FTD this past week, and now it’s looking like he’s going to miss time with a hand injury. And even if he does play, how can I count on that? His backup, Zack Moss, seems more than capable here, but I’d still love to see somebody get our first four-peat of the season!
Here are all of Week 13’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Seahawks (54.5%) at Cowboys (63.6%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Lions (54.5%) at Saints (36.4%) – Sunday 1, PM ET
Chargers (63.6%) at Patriots (27.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Colts (54.5%) at Titans (27.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Falcons (54.5%) at Jets (9.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Panthers (36.4%) at Buccaneers (18.2%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Cardinals (33.3%) at Steelers (27.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Dolphins (45.5%) at Commanders (41.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Broncos (63.6%) at Texans (45.5%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
49ers (81.8%) at Eagles (63.6%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Browns (45.5%) at Rams (45.5%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Chiefs (72.7%) at Packers (45.5%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Bengals (54.5%) at Jaguars (72.7%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
And finally, here are the games I find most bettable based on mismatches:
Lions (54.5%) at Saints (36.4%) – Sunday 1, PM ET
As I mentioned above, the Saints success rate is a little misleading as they haven’t scored first since Week 5. I’ll look to the Detroit side of things in this one. They’ve scored their first touchdown with just two different players in their last five games, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. I also might add David Montgomery to that as he and Gibbs have seemed to have no issue filling the stat sheet at the same time.
Colts (54.5%) at Titans (27.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Tennessee is just so bad. They’ve only scored the first touchdown three times this season. Do you know what they’ve also done three times? Not scored a touchdown at all! I refuse to bet them in any situation. As I mentioned above, Jonathan Taylor has scored a first touchdown in three straight games but now has a thumb injury (Editor’s note: Taylor had surgery Wednesday and is out). Even if he plays, I’ll go with his backup, Zack Moss, and Michael Pittman Jr. who has at least eight targets in four straight games.
Falcons (54.5%) at Jets (9.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Ahhhh yes, the Jets. They are just so easy to fade! They’ve only scored a touchdown first once this season and it was against the almost equally bad, New York Giants. I’m all Falcons in this one. I might double up on Bijan Robinson as he’s sure to be the favorite to score first. He leads the team in touchdowns, adding two to his tally last week. I’ll also take Desmond Ridder who has four rushing touchdowns so far this year.
Bengals (54.5%) at Jaguars (72.7%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
After a game where they didn’t find the end zone at all, the Jags are back on my good side. They’ve scored first in two straight, making them successful in eight of 11 games so far. Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne Jr. each have three TFTDs and that’s who I like in this one. Christian Kirk might also make my betting slip, as he leads the team in targets.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
