NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
I’m not sure if 13 is my lucky number, or my unlucky number based on Week 13 in the NFL. I managed to cash two FTD (first touchdown) tickets with David Montgomery and Travis Etienne Jr., but sadly both had such short odds, I couldn’t turn a profit. The lucky thing was the fact that I managed to do that while my betting system had somewhat of an off-week. All season I’ve been tracking every touchdown for every team in order to find mismatches between good and bad FTD teams and targeting the better one. The system went 6-6 in games featuring mismatches. Not great, but definitely an anomaly compared to how reliable it’s been throughout the season.
Top NFL Resources:
- NFL Betting Hub
- NFL 2024 Week-By-Week Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- NFL Betting Splits
- NFL Betting Odds
Before I make any predictions for Week 14, here are my thoughts on what happened last week…
Week 14 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Tyreek Hill: The Offensive Player of the Year favorite entered the six-timers club this week when he scored first against the Commanders. He’s now cashed FTD tickets in three straight games, and scored the Dolphins’ team-first in five of their last six. He is absolutely unstoppable right now. Others with six that I consider auto-bets right now? Christian McCaffrey, Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers. Unlike the latter two, Hill’s odds are always short but clearly well worth our money.
The Packers: More on who exactly scored for them in a moment, but Green Bay has been sneaky good here as of late. They’ve scored first in four of their last five after starting the season just two for seven. With a matchup against the lowly Giants on the horizon, I’m definitely interested in them this upcoming week.
Foes
The Chargers: Not only have they failed to score first in four straight games now, they didn’t score at all this past week against my pathetic Patriots! This was the first game all season not to feature a touchdown by either team (No TD cashed at +7000 at DraftKings). After scoring first in their first seven of eight games, this is incredibly disappointing from Los Angeles. With matchups against the surging FTD Broncos and excellent FTD Raiders coming up, I’m leaving the Chargers alone for a while.
Brutal matchup: I was hating last week’s schedule when I realized three of the top four FTD teams (Ravens, Raiders, Vikings) were all on byes. So you’d think I’d be champing at the bit to bet them this week, but what do we have on our hands? Vikings at Raiders on Sunday afternoon! This is terrible news. Both teams have scored first in 75% of their games and Minnesota has scored first in seven straight. Games like this go against my entire strategy and I’m going to try to stay strong and skip this one, but I’ll probably give in and bet a little on Jakobi Meyers.
WHO?! Spotlight: It’s back! After random players taking a week off, the Packers stepped up and scored first using a guy who might be the WHO?! of the century. Enter, their third-string tight end Ben Sims. My mentions on X immediately flooded with WHO?! gifs and memes. Sims is an undrafted rookie out of Baylor who was playing in his fourth career game. He entered Sunday with a whopping two receptions on three targets and no touchdowns. This week’s score against the Chiefs was his lone catch and target of the game. Bless you if you had a ticket on him as he cashed at +6500 at DraftKings.
Here are all of Week 14’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Patriots (25.0%) at Steelers (25.0%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Panthers (33.3%) at Saints (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Rams (41.7%) at Ravens (91.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Colts (50.0%) at Bengals (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Jaguars (75.0%) at Browns (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Lions (58.3%) at Bears (41.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Buccaneers (25.0%) at Falcons (58.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Texans (50.0%) at Jets (8.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Seahawks (58.3%) at 49ers (83.3%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Vikings (75.0%) at Raiders (75.0%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Bills (50.0%) at Chiefs (66.7%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Broncos (58.3%) at Chargers (58.3%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Eagles (58.3%) at Cowboys (58.3%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Packers (50.0%) at Giants (25.0%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Titans (33.3%) at Dolphins (50.0%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
And here are the matchups I like best based on mismatches:
Rams (41.7%) at Ravens (91.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
I’m stoked Baltimore’s off their bye and back on our betting menus. The NFL’s best FTD team is the only way to look here. They’ve somewhat strayed lately from their heavy use of RBs and Lamar Jackson’s legs but I’m sticking with it. I’ll be on Jackson, Gus Edwards who’s scored nine touchdowns in their last six games, and Keaton Mitchell who remains the only Ravens RB not to make my FTD tracker. He gets the ball plenty, this might be his week.
Jaguars (75.0%) at Browns (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
You’re probably thinking, Steph, the Jaguars just lost Trevor Lawrence, what are you doing? Following the trends, that’s what! First off, C.J. Beathard came in against Cincinnati and didn’t look bad at all. I can’t imagine with a week to prepare he’ll turn into a complete disaster. Secondly, the Browns have an eight-game streak now of scoring first in every other game. They scored first last week which means OBVIOUSLY they won’t do it in this one. It sounds silly, but I’m riding with it. Give me Travis Etienne, Zay Jones who will carry a heavier load with Christian Kirk out, and a sprinkle on Beathard. Trends are our friends! (I hope.)
Packers (50.0%) at Giants (25.0%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
The G-Men have scored first in two straight, but I’m not buying it. Give me Green Bay all day. I’ll target their deep threats as Jordan Love has shown off his ability to throw the long ball. I’ll be on Christian Watson who had two last week against Kansas City and Romeo Doubs who leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns.
Titans (33.3%) at Dolphins (50.0%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Miami started the season off very confusingly from an FTD standpoint. As the NFL’s top offense in terms of points per game for most of the year, they really struggled when it came to scoring first, doing so in just three of nine games. But since Week 11, they’re 100%. Tyreek Hill is a must-bet. As I mentioned above, he’s scored first in three straight. I’ll also take De’Von Achane who had an excellent performance last week against Washington which included two touchdowns.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
