NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
I thought trends were supposed to be our friends! All season I’ve been tracking which teams are better at scoring the game’s first touchdown and using that to narrow the betting field using my tracker. Week 8 was one I’d like to forget, with the better FTD (first touchdown) team finding the endzone first in just five of 14 games that featured mismatches. That said, we were due for an off week as the better team had gone 26-10 in this market over the previous three weeks. So, as Aaliyah said, “dust yourself off and try again” and that’s just what I plan to do.
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Before looking at Week 9, let’s recap the best and worst of Week 8 with my friends, foes, and a new segment, the WHO?! Spotlight.
Week 9 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Travis Etienne Jr.: The Jaguars RB has scored first for them in three straight, all of which have been the first of the game. Not only that, he has seven TDs to his name over his last four games. Jacksonville is clearly loving his production and so do I as he was my lone winning ticket two weeks in a row.
The Seahawks: Entering the week, the Ravens and Chiefs were the hottest teams. Baltimore’s undefeated streak finally came to a close when they played Arizona, and Kansas City was held touchdownless completely against Denver. Seattle is now the team with the longest current streak, scoring first in four straight. Only problem is, they play the Ravens this week and I’m not quite ready to jump off their bandwagon. This is a rare game where I’ll have bets on both teams.
Foes
The Dolphins: I’ve written a lot about how the highest-scoring offenses don’t always end up being the best FTD teams. But at the same time, they aren’t usually straight up bad either. Miami’s scored the first touchdown just three times this year. With an offense averaging 33.9 points per game so far (#1 in the NFL), I expect a little better. I can’t bet them until I see some improvement.
The Giants: The G-Men let the last remaining FTD-less team get on the board first this week. Breece Hall (+550) scored for the Jets, making them one-for-seven on the season. I didn’t have any bets on this game, but I really love having a truly terrible team to bet against. Both New York teams are still awful, with just one FTD each, but it feels so much safer knowing a team has had zero success.
TFTDs (Team-First Touchdowns): In addition to the Jaguars., I correctly predicted who would score first for two other teams this week. Sounds great right? Well, it’s not, as the betting app I have here in Nevada doesn’t have the TFTD market, just the game-first one. So my correct picks for Eagles WR A.J. Brown and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey were a total waste. I could be rich off CMC alone! He has FIVE TFTDs, but just three FTDs. Booooo!
One last thing before I get to Week 9…I’d like to start a new portion of this article, the “WHO?! Spotlight” where I highlight a player I never saw coming. There are a few names I could pick from Week 8 like Broncos RB Darrynton Evans or Texans FB Andrew Beck, but I have to give this week’s award to Giants QB Tommy DeVito who got the TFTD for New York. The undrafted rookie out of Illinois came out of the woodwork when Tyrod Taylor suffered a rib injury in the 2nd quarter against the Jets. DeVito’s stats in this game were wacky. He completed just two of his seven passes for -1 yard, while rushing for 12 yards on four carries, one of which was a touchdown. The odds we could have gotten on DeVito in the TFTD market! Sheesh!
Moving on, here are all of Week 9’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Titans (28.6%) at Steelers (14.3%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Dolphins (37.5%) vs Chiefs (75.0%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (Germany)
Vikings (62.5%) at Falcons (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Seahawks (71.4%) at Ravens (87.5%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Bears (37.5%) at Saints (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Cardinals (37.5%) at Browns (42.9%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Buccaneers (14.3%) at Texans (57.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Commanders (37.5%) at Patriots (37.5%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Rams (50.0%) at Packers (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Colts (37.5%) at Panthers (42.9%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Cowboys (57.1%) at Eagles (62.5%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Giants (12.5%) at Raiders (75.0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Bills (62.5%) at Bengals (42.9%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Chargers (85.7%) at Jets (14.3%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
And here are the games I see as the most bettable based on mismatches:
Dolphins (37.5%) vs Chiefs (75.0%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (Germany)
Yes, I am mad at Kansas City for not scoring a touchdown at all last week, but I don’t think that will continue against Miami who is giving up 25.5 points per game. The bad news? The Chiefs have scored first using six different players so far. The good news? None of those players have been Travis Kelce yet! He was last year’s FTD King. If you include the playoffs, he had nine team-firsts and five game-firsts. He’s long overdue. I like him and Isiah Pacheco who is the only Chief with two FTDs so far.
Buccaneers (14.3%) at Texans (57.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
I have no interest in watching this game. But, I will definitely be betting on it. The baby Texans have been impressive so far compared to what most people thought they’d be able to do offensively. I’ll bet on Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz who both have two TFTDs so far this season.
Giants (12.5%) at Raiders (75.0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
This game has a chance at being the ugliest game of the season. So many question marks and poor play at QB for both sides, but I can’t take my eyes off that 75% next to the Raiders. They even managed to find the end zone first this past week against the Lions. They strayed from their usuals of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in that one and went with Josh Jacobs. With the apparent disconnect between the QBs and WRs, I’ll pivot to their run game and go with Jacobs and take whoever they decide to start under center, and pray.
Chargers (85.7%) at Jets (14.3%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Los Angeles’s offense looked alive and cooking last week against Chicago, scoring first to remain one of the only teams with just one loss in the FTD category. Even better for their outlook, Austin Ekeler appeared to be fully healthy as he was a big part of the receiving game in that win. I’ll have tickets on him and Keenan Allen, both of whom have two FTDs on the season.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
