NFL MVP 2024 Odds, History, and Predictions:

The 2023 AP NFL MVP was Lamar Jackson, a repeat winner, and that seems to be a theme. Dating back to 2007, when Tom Brady won the first of three NFL MVP Awards, the only single-time winners have been Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Adrian Peterson.

It is entirely possible that with a young crop of promising quarterbacks, a newcomer will emerge on the scene this season. Not that he’s young, per se, but Dak Prescott finished a very distant second to Jackson last year, who previously won the award in 2019. Jalen Hurts had that honor behind Patrick Mahomes in 2022.

 

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When it comes to handicapping the NFL MVP market, there isn’t a whole lot left to the imagination based on what I just mentioned. Here are the MVPs dating back to 2007:

Tom Brady: 2007, 2010, 2017
Peyton Manning: 2008, 2009, 2013
Aaron Rodgers: 2011, 2020, 2021
Patrick Mahomes: 2018, 2022
Cam Newton: 2015
Matt Ryan: 2016
Adrian Peterson: 2012

Peterson deserves to stand alone because he is the only non-QB since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 to gather enough votes for the honor. Peterson got 30.5 of the 50 votes, while Manning secured 19.5. AP ran for 2,097 yards and had 13 total touchdowns that season.

What we’ve basically seen is that a QB wins MVP and the top RB/WR wins the Offensive Player of the Year award. While we’re focusing on the MVP exclusively here, it is worth pointing out that each of the last five winners of that award has been a RB or WR and the last repeat winner for that award was Peyton Manning in 2013. That process seems to be a little more democratic.

It may be just as simple as taking a QB to win the MVP, but which QB are you taking? Or, are you going to take a real gamble and go with a skill-position player?

That is the question we posed to our VSiN hosts and contributors and these are the answers that they gave.

Matt Brown: 

Jared Goff 40/1

Jared Goff was better last year than most people realize.

  • 2nd in the NFL in passing yards 
  • 4th in the NFL in passing TDs 
  • 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game 
  • 5th in the NFL in completion percentage 
  • 5th graded passer in the NFL by Pro Football Focus (min 400 dropbacks) 

There’s very little reason to believe he’s in for some sort of big-time regression when you consider the Lions’ stellar offensive line and all the weapons at his disposal. We know Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud. But let’s remember, this will be just Year 2 of Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. This will be Jameson Williams’ first full offseason with the team. He plays in a dome for all his home games (with five road games in domes and one in California). And with a defense that might still be a little shaky in pass defense, Detroit will likely have to keep their foot on the gas in most games. It’s a big number attached to Goff’s name and, with last season’s numbers well within reach of being repeatable, we should have a ticket that we can monetize one way or another. 

Zachary Cohen:

Jalen Hurts 18/1

Last season, Jalen Hurts threw for 3,858 yards with 23 touchdowns and a whopping 15 interceptions. He also rushed for just 605 yards and an average of 3.9 yards per carry. Compared to a 2022 season in which Hurts threw for 3,701 yards with 22 touchdowns and only six picks, while also rushing for 760 yards and 4.6 yards per carry, it’s clear he wasn’t the same player. Well, Hurts did battle some minor injuries throughout the season, and he often was visibly uncomfortable out there. So, I’m expecting him to bounce back after a full offseason to get healthy. 

Hurts is still part of one of the most explosive offenses in football, and Philadelphia should only turn things up a notch in 2024. Kellen Moore is a proven offensive coordinator in this league, so he should do a better job of pressing buttons than Brian Johnson did last year. The Eagles will also have a better running game this season, as Saquon Barkley is now the main man in the backfield. That should open up all sorts of opportunities for this passing game, which also happened to add Parris Campbell after the season. Campbell is a very effective slot receiver, so he should give Hurts a reliable underneath option. 

All in all, I just don’t think of Hurts as a mistake-prone passer. He has been accurate throughout his career, and his Completion Percentage Over Expected was actually higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. So, look for Hurts to significantly cut down on his interceptions. If he does that and continues to put up big numbers in both the passing and running games, he should be in the mix for MVP. And it doesn’t hurt that Philadelphia looks like a team that is capable of winning 12 or 13 games. 

Adam Burke:

Jared Goff 40/1

My colleague Matt Brown is a very sharp individual. He mentioned this before the NFL schedule even came out and that May 15 release was the extra push I needed to get involved with this.

Goff plays 14 of his 17 games in a dome this season. One road game (Dec. 22) is almost guaranteed to be played in bad weather at Soldier Field. Otherwise, he’ll play at Lambeau Field in early November and Santa Clara on Dec. 30. The stage is set for Goff to be able to have a monster season based on venue and timing. He has a 48/10 TD/INT ratio in domed venues over the last two seasons.

Goff and OC Ben Johnson are running it back for the third year in a row. Over those two seasons, Goff ranks ninth in EPA+CPOE composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected) per RBSDM and seventh in adjusted EPA/play. In Year 2 under Johnson, Goff’s On-Target% went from 76.2% to 80.3% per Pro Football Reference and a full season of Jameson Williams and more Jahmyr Gibbs should help in that department.

The Lions have huge potential, a defense that will force Goff and the offense to keep the pedal down, and a tremendously-favorable schedule for their QB.

Jonathan Von Tobel:

Tua Tagovailoa 22/1

MVP is becoming increasingly less interesting to bet on. The top options are all quarterbacks, and the odds are usually much shorter than they realistically should be. But, every once in a while something slips through the cracks. This year, that would be the odds on Tua Tagovailoa.

The fifth-year signal-caller is the starting quarterback for the best offense in the league. Tagovailoa completed 69.3% of his passes for a league-best 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. Should he match – or improve – those figures while leading the Dolphins to a division crown and a top seed in the AFC, he will have the inside track to winning this award.

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